SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The ETA5 is inland, haha. Classic ETA5. It can be useful though, just as the NOGAPS for the opposite reason, if the ETA5 was over the benchmark here its a red flag, same as if the NOGAPS is over the benchmark, those two things can signify the other models are right or wrong...in this case the ETA5 being there likely means a track near or inside the benchmark is likely as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6-8" is a really good call right now imo...but my $ is on the gfs/euro so those totals will go up tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll be restricting most of my speculation to my current location. Sorry, Alex ;-) no prob lol-- I wonder if those 6-8/9 amounts will need to be upped lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It can be useful though, just as the NOGAPS for the opposite reason, if the ETA5 was over the benchmark here its a red flag, same as if the NOGAPS is over the benchmark, those two things can signify the other models are right or wrong...in this case the ETA5 being there likely means a track near or inside the benchmark is likely as of now. Oh sure. I didn't mean it to come across as saying otherwise. I take it as a good sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im surprised, latest discussion theyre only going with 10-20% chance of 6+ inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC just updated their winter weather maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What I find interesting is Taunton just goes possibility of 6+. As in they aren't restricting themselves to a range (whether it be 6-8, 8-12, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I get the sense that theyre holding back a bit, trying to ease their way into a bigger forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Only out to 48 thus far..but the SREF's are really honking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC just updated their winter weather maps. Those darn initialization problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The SREF's are still trying to correct to the west, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Only out to 48 thus far..but the SREF's are really honking. Think you meant the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Last one, promise...great support for 1"/hr rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Think you meant the RGEM. Nope...I meant the 03z SREF hi res SPC images. They come out late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 John, that looks like a hurricane about to make landfall lol. If you showed off that map in August or September, people would want to come storm chasing here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter Storm Watches issued for NYC Those darn initialization problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The SREF's are still trying to correct to the west, too I don't see any of the images you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nope...I meant the 03z SREF hi res SPC images. They come out late. Your pictures didn't load on my monitor, leading to my confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 rgem out to 24, looks lkie it might be a massive hit for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 06Z RGEM gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Last one, promise...great support for 1"/hr rates Dang, what the heck i cant view the image for some reason...Can you post a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't see any of the images you posted neither do i. I could get the links though. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010122503/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f054.gif http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010122503/SREF_SNOWRATE_1INCH__f048.gif http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010122503/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mt Holly URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 416 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0006.101226T1200Z-101227T1800Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 416 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES OR MORE * TIMING: SPREADING NORTH ON SUNDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ENDING ON MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE IN STRONG WIND GUSTS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE GREATLY REDUCED. * NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 06Z RGEM at hour 48 is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry about the links. Go here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=latest Scroll down to winter weather, click 12 hr snowfall accumulation and view each hour scrolling over it...also check out the % chance of 1"/hr rates under the winter weather column as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The images are gone from the SPC site, too. They do this sometimes. Not sure why. They should be back shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mt Holly URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 416 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: / Like Taunton, they issue for a general 6+ possibility. I wonder why Upton locks in at 6-8. I appreciate specificity, but this storm seems far too crazy for me to do that. Maybe, I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pure sex on the 06tz RGEM.... I didn't even know there was an 06z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Philly area ~ Eagles game should be fun! ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon. * Precipitation type: snow * accumulations: possibility of six inches or more * timing: spreading north on Sunday from south to north. Ending on Monday from south to north. * Impacts: travel may be hazardous due to significant accumulations of snow. Blowing and drifting snow possible in strong wind gusts. Visibilities may be greatly reduced. * Northerly winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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