Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 6


dryslotted

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 974
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Winter Storm Watch just issued for the LWX CWA.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

309 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-251615-

/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0010.101226T1100Z-101227T1100Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-

CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...

BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...

MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG

309 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY

MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBILITY OF 5 OR MORE INCHES.

* TIMING...SPREADING IN SUNDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ENDING

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE PEAK PERIOD OF

SNOWFALL WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND

MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 TO

25 LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP

TO 30 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JAN 25th 2000 would have been the king of all comebacks but that ended up being the king of all dryslots here.We went to less than an inch predicted on late MON afternoon to over a foot predicted late on that Monday night and early Tues morning.The dryslot raced northward and turned a 2.5 inch per hour whiteout into nothing in a 10 minute period.we ended up with 6 inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8-16 inches with blizzard conditions. That's my thinking right now for NJ. Note these are my own thoughts and have nothing to do with an official government product or outlook.

The key is whether to issue blizzard watches because the general public here think blizzard means obscene snowfall amounts, not snow with very windy conditions. It seems the wind conditions are a cinch, but whether the snowfall is high enough to merit the issuance of the blizzard watch given the public perception of what a blizzard actually means is the question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it appears upton is going with watches....

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it appears upton is going with watches....

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

LWX issued watches so its probably guaranteed PHI does too. But I can't speak for them personally, I don't work there and am not working right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The key is whether to issue blizzard watches because the general public here think blizzard means obscene snowfall amounts, not snow with very windy conditions. It seems the wind conditions are a cinch, but whether the snowfall is high enough to merit the issuance of the blizzard watch given the public perception of what a blizzard actually means is the question.

In D.C., on Feb. 10, the city and immediate suburbs only ended up with about 10 inches or snow (really peanuts after the Feb. 6 storm). But LWX still issued blizzard warnings that day, and I'm pretty sure no member of the public could fault them for it. Anyone who stepped outside could tell conditions were far more severe than the earlier two storms last winter, despite there being far less snow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The key is whether to issue blizzard watches because the general public here think blizzard means obscene snowfall amounts, not snow with very windy conditions. It seems the wind conditions are a cinch, but whether the snowfall is high enough to merit the issuance of the blizzard watch given the public perception of what a blizzard actually means is the question.

Professionally, I wouldn't go that far yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I have said before, I wouldn't put much trust in the NAM in this pattern.

The NAM appears to be doing what I find it often does, not throwing enough precipitation back into the cold side of a low pressure area...or I should phrase that better...its not so much the amounts but the distance to the cold side of the storm it fails to throw precip back to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM appears to be doing what I find it often does, not throwing enough precipitation back into the cold side of a low pressure area...or I should phrase that better...its not so much the amounts but the distance to the cold side of the storm it fails to throw precip back to.

Yeah hopefully it's that typical error. The NAM solution would suck for me here in north-central Jersey.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8-16 inches with blizzard conditions. That's my thinking right now for NJ. Note these are my own thoughts which have nothing to do with an official government product or outlook.

Looks like youre onboard Ray :thumbsup: What would you say for here? Im 25 miles SE of NYC and about 5 miles east of JFK And how strong will the winds be? With the low stalling or slowing down do you see steady snow through the day Monday-- IOW maybe 30 hours of steady snow?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

358 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-251700-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0005.101226T1800Z-101227T1800Z/

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-

EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-

EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-

SOUTHERN QUEENS-

358 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND

NEW YORK CITY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF

SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED. STRONG

WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS AS WELL.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE

HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH 30 MPH GUSTS...TURNING

NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH 35 MPH GUSTS SUNDAY

NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST MONDAY

AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND NEAR

THE COAST.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

358 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-251700-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0005.101226T1800Z-101227T1800Z/

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-

EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-

EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-

SOUTHERN QUEENS-

358 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND

NEW YORK CITY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF

SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED. STRONG

WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS AS WELL.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE

HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH 30 MPH GUSTS...TURNING

NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH 35 MPH GUSTS SUNDAY

NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST MONDAY

AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND NEAR

THE COAST.

same for e li/conn, but 6 to 9 and more locally. They'll be playing catchup (I think), but this is a nice conservative first step after having "light snow" last forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like youre onboard Ray :thumbsup: What would you say for here? Im 25 miles SE of NYC and about 5 miles east of JFK And how strong will the winds be? With the low stalling or slowing down do you see steady snow through the day Monday-- IOW maybe 30 hours of steady snow?

I'll be restricting most of my speculation to my current location. Sorry, Alex ;-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...