dbc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i love you all, merry christmas. Lol same to you. What is the time frame for this thing. What time on Sunday would this begin and when would the crazy rates per hour start from ACY-NYC? Estimation is fine as no one can know exactly obviously. I am just not able to compute/translate the model time stamps at this hour right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 new discussion from HPC, basically not saying anything THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN WEATHER STORIES TO DISCUSS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ASHORE ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND MOVING INLAND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY A DEEP AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PROPELLING THE FRONT EASTWARD. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND THEN MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY TO A LOCATION OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO A STEADY RAIN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...SNOW IS LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF VIRGINIA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LATER FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. ELSEWHERE...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE TRANQUIL WITH SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COMPLIMENTS OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What does everyone think the chances are of Mt. Holly issuing watches with its 4 AM update? Probably pretty high, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, this is gonna be a major weenie post, but the 6z NAM already looks better at initialization than the 00z NAM did at 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What does everyone think the chances are of Mt. Holly issuing watches with its 4 AM update? Probably pretty high, right? We're still a good 36 hours away from the snow starting, and typically watches go out 36 hours in advance of the forecast accumulation, so I would say midday-afternoon. Then again with the big travel weekend they may pull the trigger earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You don't want a triple phase, believe me, analysis has been done to show its very very difficult for a triple phaser to not track inland or at the very least along the coast in most scenarios. But what about when we have a trough crashing on the west coast and a ridge pushing well east of the perfect spot tmrw?? Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In our great comeback, the game just became 31-30. Now we need the PAT. Then who will be our DeSean Jackson? 0.5" line to the I-81 corridor...just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We're still a good 36 hours away from the snow starting, and typically watches go out 36 hours in advance of the forecast accumulation, so I would say midday-afternoon. Then again with the big travel weekend they may pull the trigger earlier So it is fair to say the snow begins in the early afternoon from ACY northward or perhaps earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EC ensembles are on board...way west from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I can't believe this is happening right now. Feels surreal, just watching that WV loop is incredible. This could possibly be the best comeback ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 15 nam is digging more...higher hgts along east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EC Ensembles inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EC Ensembles inside the benchmark yes-- even further west than OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yes-- even further west than OP Yeah...they are smoothed though due to the amount of members. But the track is terrific and the H5 closed low is south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yes-- even further west than OP Ut-oh...is this becoming a coastal hugger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ut-oh...is this becoming a coastal hugger? I don't think that's possible, it could be, but it seems the Ensembles are matched up with the OP more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Watching that 24-hour WV loop is ridiculous. I want and need to go to bed but I can't get myself to do it. =( Merry Christmas all now that it is actually the day. If this storm can produce it will be my favorite present by far, and no one has to spend any money! Except maybe township and city snow removal, but those have been budgeted in, so really that money is already spent. Good luck to all in the next 36 hours as we nowcast and nail this thing down. It has been one of the hardest storms to track thus far in my short meteorological "career." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You don't want a triple phase, believe me, analysis has been done to show its very very difficult for a triple phaser to not track inland or at the very least along the coast in most scenarios. I'm going to disagree with you on this...that is a fallacy. The last great triple phaser I remember MISSED us to the to east. It was February 2004 and crushed Nova Scotia. Triple phasers can happen anywhere. The reason everyone on the east coast is "afraid" of them is becaus all they hear about is March 1993 and January 1978. But they are exceptionally rare to begin with and there have been some that miss us too to the east like Feb 2004. Its just hard to get them perfect. That's what a triple phaser is...perfect solution....and often it misses us because a perfect solution is hard to come by esp when all three jets phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So it is fair to say the snow begins in the early afternoon from ACY northward or perhaps earlier? If I'm reading the GFS right it looks like 8am ACY and 12pm NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My mom just knocked on the door to my room and asked me what I was doing up at 3 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the GFS may be the big winner when all this is said and done. didnt it first start trending back as early as 12z thursday? when every other model was on an ocean cruise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br />My mom just knocked on the door to my room and asked me what I was doing up at 3 AM <img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/arrowheadsmiley.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /><br /><br /><br />put away the playboy magazines and concentrate on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> put away the playboy magazines and concentrate on the models. But they are models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm going to disagree with you on this...that is a fallacy. The last great triple phaser I remember MISSED us to the to east. It was February 2004 and crushed Nova Scotia. Triple phasers can happen anywhere. The reason everyone on the east coast is "afraid" of them is becaus all they hear about is March 1993 and January 1978. But they are exceptionally rare to begin with and there have been some that miss us too to the east like Feb 2004. Its just hard to get them perfect. That's what a triple phaser is...perfect solution....and often it misses us because a perfect solution is hard to come by esp when all three jets phase. Didn't that hammer the Canadian Maritimes Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If I'm reading the GFS right it looks like 8am ACY and 12pm NYC. On Sunday? Holy crap. I am supposed to head back from ACY to Eastern Bergen on Sunday and I now have no clue what time I should leave and I also have to make sure I am in front of the TV for the Giants-Packers game by 4:15, lol. This is going to be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 But they are models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm going to disagree with you on this...that is a fallacy. The last great triple phaser I remember MISSED us to the to east. It was February 2004 and crushed Nova Scotia. Triple phasers can happen anywhere. The reason everyone on the east coast is "afraid" of them is becaus all they hear about is March 1993 and January 1978. But they are exceptionally rare to begin with and there have been some that miss us too to the east like Feb 2004. Its just hard to get them perfect. That's what a triple phaser is...perfect solution....and often it misses us because a perfect solution is hard to come by esp when all three jets phase. Will, was 2/26 last year a triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the GFS may be the big winner when all this is said and done. didnt it first start trending back as early as 12z thursday? when every other model was on an ocean cruise? The GFS definitely trended west with its 18z run on Thursday; not sure about 12z. The Euro looks like it's going to be the big winner for the 4-7 day range while the GFS will be the big winner for the 2-3 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My mom just knocked on the door to my room and asked me what I was doing up at 3 AM lmao I thought you were in your 20s or 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS definitely trended west with its 18z run on Thursday; not sure about 12z. The Euro looks like it's going to be the big winner for the 4-7 day range while the GFS will be the big winner for the 2-3 day range. I guess this is why we have 2344322 models lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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