bass28 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WV looks amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I dont get the idea of the euro and gfs trending apart mentioned above, because both trended well west lol. I had to reread that twice, but it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the MM5 is anything close to being right, dbc, we are getting a heck of lot more.... It looks like the SE Jersey Shore will be counting depth in feet if that verifies. Makes me glad I booked a room in Atlantic City for Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Burning my last 5 post, but Eagles game is an 8 pm start, not a 1 pm start. .44 liquid equivalent by 7 pm per Euro, better than a 10:1 fluff factor at -9ºC. Guess 6 to 8 inches. .44 falls during 6 hour period, guess over an inch per hour with fluff factor. If it wasn't the NBC game of the week, I'd guess cancellation for certain, but maybe the NFL doesn't want to canx the equivalent of the old Monday Night Football, the one big national game . I posted last page based on assumed 1 pm EST start, and I'd hate to get anyone roadtripping to PHL. I have no idea whether it'd be canx or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The longer the HPC and the NWS continue to spew this data problem issue instead of issuing watches immediately they may start putting lives at risk during the peak travel weekend of the year in the most populated corridor of the country. It's better to lean towards a bust on their side now. Global models, North American models, hi-res models are all beating the same drums right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 06z NAM starts in 30-35 minutes...it seems like these model cycles fly by so fast... at this point I'd be prepared to see anything show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The longer the HPC and the NWS continue to spew this data problem issue instead of issuing watches immediately they may start putting lives at risk during the peak travel weekend of the year in the most populated corridor of the country. It's better to lean towards a bust on their side now. Global models, North American models, hi-res models are all beating the same drums right now. I definately agree. If sh8t goes down in the NE corridor, theyre gonna get smacked with a heavy backhand of blame by the media. Not good. We have about 12 hours til the DC-BOS corridor enters the 36 hour window for watches. They need to get their act together overnight. the GGEM/EURO shift westward should have been enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 06z NAM starts in 30-35 minutes...it seems like these model cycles fly by so fast... at this point I'd be prepared to see anything show up 03z SREFs in 20-25... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC is sending in the Planes..they STILL are not convinced ! Crazy stuf THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED WITHTHE 00Z GUIDANCE. THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MOREWESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...WHICH IS ATREND WHICH HAS EXTENDED TO THE CANADIAN/UKMET SINCE THEIR 12ZRUNS THOUGH MORE EXTREME IN THE CASES OF THE CANADIAN AND UKMET. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHIFTINGSHARPLY WESTWARD AFTER ITS 2-3 DAY TREND TO THE EAST TOSOUTHEAST... AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THEMODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNINGTOWARDS /IF NOT WEST OF/ ITS SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY. THE ECMWFSDRASTIC CHANGE MAKES THE CONFIDENCE IN ITS CURRENT SOLUTION LOW. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE LOW MOREWESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED QUICKERAND MORE OFFSHORE. THE 21Z SREF MEAN IS SLOWER THAN THEDETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...BUT SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK. WHEN THE GFSSHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...IT LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE INITS FORECAST. THE GFS 850 HPA WINDS...BOTH THROUGH THE COASTALPLAIN OF THE EAST AND WELL OFFSHORE IN ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT AREDOUBLE THAT OF THE 00Z NAM. SINCE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELSHAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD FROM THEIR 12Z RUNS...LITTLEWEIGHT CAN BE PLACED ON THEIR ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND ADDSCONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS LEAVES US WITH A PREFERENCELYING BETWEEN THE MORE WESTERN 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE MOREEASTERN 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN...A SOLUTION SIX HOURSSLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREFERENCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS FORECAST UNTIL THE MULTIPLESHORTWAVES WHICH MAKE UP THE PARENT SYSTEM MERGE...AND WINTERRECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CAN BEGIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERNATLANTIC LATER TODAY. SEE QPF AND WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FORTHIS SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION IMPACT. who's on first? what's on second? no, what's on third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hmm 1996? I don't think I saw sustained winds more than 40 mph at any point (living in Howell, NJ at the time-SE Monmouth) but I could be wrong it was the last "true blizzard" here. Im just listing the storms offhand that I think verified as blizzards here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Amazing most of the EC doesnt have watches or warnings when the biggest storm in years might be impacting most of the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 06z NAM starts in 30-35 minutes...it seems like these model cycles fly by so fast... at this point I'd be prepared to see anything show up it looks like we are going to have a lot of new additions to the late night crew tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 it looks like we are going to have a lot of new additions to the late night crew tonight lol I am fighting to stay awake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No. It would have to be a hurricane to postpone or to go to an alternate site. Over the years there have been much worse conditions. Sorry if this is a little off topic, but I have tickets to the Eagles game Sunday night in Philly. I will get there, I have 4 wheel drive and snow tires and plenty of experience driving in snowstorms, but is there any chance the NFL would cancel the game due to the snow. I know they normally play in snow but this could be a LOT of snow. Anyone in the Philly area have any thoughts? I would love to be at a blizzard game but I would hate to get up there and stuck in Philly and have the game cancelled. Thanks for any thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC is operating under the Kruger mentality from Seinfeld..."I'm not too worried about it...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 03z SREFs in 20-25... Continue the stronger and west trend!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The longer the HPC and the NWS continue to spew this data problem issue instead of issuing watches immediately they may start putting lives at risk during the peak travel weekend of the year in the most populated corridor of the country. It's better to lean towards a bust on their side now. Global models, North American models, hi-res models are all beating the same drums right now. if things still look good, they will do it with the morning shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 haha i told myself I was only going to stay up for the 0z gfs, bt then that became the 0z foreigns, then the 0z euro, now the 6z nam, prob wont even stop there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would like to know this as well. 60 mph sustained seems unlikely. I do not recall ever experiencing that during a snow storm of any kind. 1993 March Superstorm is the closest thing to those conditions that I can remember experiencing. That would be epic and unforgettable. In that storm, there were hurricane force wind gusts on parts of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry if this is a little off topic, but I have tickets to the Eagles game Sunday night in Philly. I will get there, I have 4 wheel drive and snow tires and plenty of experience driving in snowstorms, but is there any chance the NFL would cancel the game due to the snow. I know they normally play in snow but this could be a LOT of snow. Anyone in the Philly area have any thoughts? I would love to be at a blizzard game but I would hate to get up there and stuck in Philly and have the game cancelled. Thanks for any thoughts. Highly doubt they cancel it....if so, I think they'll let you know early Sunday morning since many fans tailgate all day. Just go to the Eagles site/forums....they're usually on top of things first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In that storm, there were hurricane force wind gust on parts of Long Island. The NJ coast and the N Nassau and N Queens regions like LGA tend to be most prone to the wind in these events, LGA due to the funnelling effect down the sound and the NJ coast because its basically an unobstructed wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There have been, the Eagles won the Championship in an all out blizzard in 1949 I think. But the NFL has become a bit of a girly league lately about a lot of things. No. It would have to be a hurricane to postpone or to go to an alternate site. Over the years there have been much worse conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this is still the lead weather story on fox29...............lol http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpp/news/local_news/philadelphia-weather-forecast-latest-060510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In that storm, there were hurricane force wind gust on parts of Long Island. Gusts in 1993 were pretty impressive. It was very similar to the winds in the December 1992 storm maybe somehwat weaker. I guess that would be what this storm would be like then if winds approach 60 mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Highly doubt they cancel it....if so, I think they'll let you know early Sunday morning since many fans tailgate all day. Just go to the Eagles site/forums....they're usually on top of things first. good point and thanks... Right now our plan is to drive up EARLY sunday leave DC area around 6am to beat the worst of the weather then hang out all day in the area. Maybe watch the games at the sports bar in the holiday inn. We have a room at the Skyline across from the Penrose diner Sunday night so were good once we get there. I really hope they do not move the game to Monday night as that would conflict with other plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this is still the lead weather story on fox29...............lol http://www.myfoxphil...t-latest-060510 Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 THIS LEAVES US WITH A PREFERENCELYING BETWEEN THE MORE WESTERN 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE MOREEASTERN 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN... Preferencelying speaking of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey, Merry Christmas dudes. Wishing you good health, safety, lots of love, and most importantly...tons of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You don't want a triple phase, believe me, analysis has been done to show its very very difficult for a triple phaser to not track inland or at the very least along the coast in most scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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