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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 6

dryslotted

By dryslotted,
in New York City Metro

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Dark Energy

Dark Energy

Posted
Posted

It overdoes QPF though....get ready, assuming the track does not change much from here on in its going to have some runs, most likely its 06Z and 18Z, especially the 18s where it shows off the wall QPF amounts, it may show 2.50 + on some runs.

...and i Know this for sure. lol. im more talking aboot the track. it is trending west but is pretty good in the really near term.

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dbc

dbc

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I am absolutely shocked at the trends. Truly an historic event for TRENDS ALONE!

I have never seen anything like this as far as the change in trends go. I am in AC until Sunday morning at the earliest and don't know what to do to try and get home to Eastern Bergen county. On top of that I need to make sure I am somewhere I can watch the 4:15 pm Giants vs Packers game which is for a playoff spot, lol. This is going to be a wild adventure. I am thinking 12+ is possible in my area of Bergen. Down here in AC it could be 6-10.

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Chris L

Chris L

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I have never seen anything like this as far as the change in trends go. I am in AC until Sunday morning at the earliest and don't know what to do to try and get home to Eastern Bergen county. On top of that I need to make sure I am somewhere I can watch the 4:15 pm Giants vs Packers game which is for a playoff spot, lol. This is going to be a wild adventure. I am thinking 12+ is possible in my area of Bergen. Down here in AC it could be 6-10.

If the MM5 is anything close to being right, dbc, we are getting a heck of lot more....

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Never, really - in fact, as one gets closer to the event the models get better and better, as they have less time for the various errors in assumptions/initial conditions/boundary conditions/data input etc. to propagate out until the actual storm event. Think of it this way: almost every model should give nearly 100% accuracy for forecasted conditions 5 minutes into the future, since the future state is so similar to the current state. Put mathematically, the set of non-linear partial differential equations governing the various physicochemical processes occurring in the atmosphere only has to move forward a small time increment, making the range of possible solutions [actually, numerical solutions are the only way to solve these sets of equations, since analytical solutions are simply impossible] much smaller than for a forecast 24 hours into the future.

This major decrease in the forecast error bars (think of a hurricane's trajectory cone, which gets wider and wider as one moves further into the future) as one gets closer to the event is the reason why people have to put a lot more stock in tonight's 00Z runs than they were able to in the "blizzard" runs from 2 days ago. If the Euro is on board and HPC doesn't come up with any reason to throw out tonight's model runs, then I would think we're clearly ready to lock and load on this event (i.e., significant snows are nearly a sure thing for the DC-Boston corridor; blizzard/snowmageddon conditions are not yet a sure thing) and it would then take a nearly unprecedented total model meltdown scenario, a la March 2001, for this to be a complete miss. Of course, I'm not a meteorologist, so I could be off, but I do know a thing or two about numerical models, physical chemistry, and mass, heat and momentum transfer...

Awesome post. Thank you.

canderson - thanks, appreciate the kind words. Well, the Euro is on board, so let's sit back and enjoy this. My biggest disappointment will likely be the fact that I'm in Charlotte, NC, with my family (sister and Mom both live here), and almost certainly will miss it (unless I can convince my wife to drive home late Saturday).

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Sorry if this is a little off topic, but I have tickets to the Eagles game Sunday night in Philly. I will get there, I have 4 wheel drive and snow tires and plenty of experience driving in snowstorms, but is there any chance the NFL would cancel the game due to the snow. I know they normally play in snow but this could be a LOT of snow. Anyone in the Philly area have any thoughts? I would love to be at a blizzard game but I would hate to get up there and stuck in Philly and have the game cancelled. Thanks for any thoughts.

1.05 liquid equivalent storm total, over a 10:1 fluff factor as 850 mb temps fal to -9ºC by 0Z, per Euro, and a little over .3 inches in 6 hour period guesstimate an inch per hour snow, or 3 inches during the game, I'd guess game on and then travel gets bad. Only 1 or 2 inches, depending on fluff, before 18Z. Cancellation would be more on hype and fear of stranded, based on Euro MOS, the question is would they play a game that starts with 1 or 2 inches and ends with 5 or 7 inches.

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Kingwill

Kingwill

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HPC is sending in the Planes..they STILL are not convinced ! Crazy stuf

THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED WITHTHE 00Z GUIDANCE. THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MOREWESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...WHICH IS ATREND WHICH HAS EXTENDED TO THE CANADIAN/UKMET SINCE THEIR 12ZRUNS THOUGH MORE EXTREME IN THE CASES OF THE CANADIAN AND UKMET. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHIFTINGSHARPLY WESTWARD AFTER ITS 2-3 DAY TREND TO THE EAST TOSOUTHEAST... AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THEMODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNINGTOWARDS /IF NOT WEST OF/ ITS SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY. THE ECMWFSDRASTIC CHANGE MAKES THE CONFIDENCE IN ITS CURRENT SOLUTION LOW. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE LOW MOREWESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED QUICKERAND MORE OFFSHORE. THE 21Z SREF MEAN IS SLOWER THAN THEDETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...BUT SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK. WHEN THE GFSSHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...IT LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE INITS FORECAST. THE GFS 850 HPA WINDS...BOTH THROUGH THE COASTALPLAIN OF THE EAST AND WELL OFFSHORE IN ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT AREDOUBLE THAT OF THE 00Z NAM. SINCE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELSHAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD FROM THEIR 12Z RUNS...LITTLEWEIGHT CAN BE PLACED ON THEIR ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND ADDSCONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS LEAVES US WITH A PREFERENCELYING BETWEEN THE MORE WESTERN 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE MOREEASTERN 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN...A SOLUTION SIX HOURSSLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREFERENCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS FORECAST UNTIL THE MULTIPLESHORTWAVES WHICH MAKE UP THE PARENT SYSTEM MERGE...AND WINTERRECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CAN BEGIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERNATLANTIC LATER TODAY. SEE QPF AND WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FORTHIS SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION IMPACT.

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dbc

dbc

Posted
Posted

If the MM5 is anything close to being right, dbc, we are getting a heck of lot more....

Yeah i know I saw that. I am so unsure about what to do as far as getting home to avoid getting caught in blizzard conditions down here in ACY. Driving in that is insanity. I recall dealing with it while I was living in Madison, NJ in the 2000-01 winter. It was scary and insane and I have no chains or snow tires.

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

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1.05 liquid equivalent storm total, over a 10:1 fluff factor as 850 mb temps fal to -9ºC by 0Z, per Euro, and a little over .3 inches in 6 hour period guesstimate an inch per hour snow, or 3 inches during the game, I'd guess game on and then travel gets bad. Only 1 or 2 inches, depending on fluff, before 18Z. Cancellation would be more on hype and fear of stranded, based on Euro MOS, the question is would they play a game that starts with 1 or 2 inches and ends with 5 or 7 inches.

I wonder if a game could ever get to a point where you just can't play? I mean, if you had two inch per hour rates ever during a game, I would think a field would be unplayable by the half?

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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Posted

I'm caving at that this point to an event...based purely on the 00Z guidance I'd say 8-16 inches as an across the board area wide guess...there is still a possibility though that this could do something crazy, this includes a track over LI or a near miss....I think a total miss is becoming unlikely but an advisory snow is still a distinct possibility given the sudden swing we've seen to a major event.

Thanks, SG-- honestly no one could have predicted this.... ever. It's such an anomalous set up, and I cant help but wonder if the ridge being further east is a GOOD thing-- having lived through the 80s, I have to think if the ridge was in the ideal spot-- we might have seen forecasts for a blizzard and the storm might have cut inland giving us rain. I would not want to be on here to see what people would be saying if that were to happen lol.

How long will it snow for? If it stalls, slows down or loops, could this be a 24-36 hr event with 50 + mph winds?

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dbc

dbc

Posted
Posted

What are the winds shaping up to be like in the NYC/Long Island area... I know several people commented on this earlier.. Are we still talking about the possibility of 60mph+ winds?

I would like to know this as well. 60 mph sustained seems unlikely. I do not recall ever experiencing that during a snow storm of any kind. 1993 March Superstorm is the closest thing to those conditions that I can remember experiencing. That would be epic and unforgettable.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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I would like to know this as well. 60 mph sustained seems unlikely. I do not recall ever experiencing that during a snow storm of any kind. 1993 March Superstorm is the closest thing to those conditions that I can remember experiencing. That would be epic and unforgettable.

We'll have to look up wind speeds for March 1960, Feb 1978 and Jan 1996.

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NickD2011

NickD2011

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Posted

Sorry if this is a little off topic, but I have tickets to the Eagles game Sunday night in Philly. I will get there, I have 4 wheel drive and snow tires and plenty of experience driving in snowstorms, but is there any chance the NFL would cancel the game due to the snow. I know they normally play in snow but this could be a LOT of snow. Anyone in the Philly area have any thoughts? I would love to be at a blizzard game but I would hate to get up there and stuck in Philly and have the game cancelled. Thanks for any thoughts.

For the 12/19 storm they just delayed the game 3 hours to clear the snow that ended just hours before scheduled kickoff. But since this game is Sunday night, they can't delay it. They might start the game at 1 PM instead or move it to Monday night if it's really bad. I remember a Patriots game was played during a storm forecast to dump 10 inches of snow in Boston. But then again, Boston has much more snow plowing ability than Philly. The stadium crew will just have to continuously clear the snow before and during the game. At least everyone not being hit by this storm can watch it live on Sunday Night Football.

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