tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heres for the viewers out of the areas...greatest to least yellow 2-2.5 pinkis purple 1.75-2 dark purple 1.5-1.75 purple 1.25-1.5 lgt pink 1-1.25 turqouise .75-1 lgt blue .5-.75 green .25-.5 lgt green .25 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As a hobbyist I am as exhuberant as anyone watching all this unfold for the last day. If I were a pro and had to commit to a forecast right now I would be crapping my drawers. For areas that are showing 1"+ liquid equivalent I would say 6"+ is possible at this time and I would update that to 6-12" likely if the 12Z models hold serve. Then I have the next 24 hours to fine tune the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro still is King..It had the idea way before anyone else.. but give the GFS some love if this pans out..it lead the way to the promised Land ! Crazy part still a full day before the storm even starts so anything can still happen with this roller coaster ride ! No it didn't. Check out the map from the GFS a week ago! If it only stayed the course since then!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 props to the SREF"S? i believe they trended back back 1st before the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 People worrying about mixing: Jan. 1996 had a mix for a while when low was closest to LI. Same can happen here. We still get dumped on, even if we mix for a short while. A crapload of snow falls way before the low is anywhere near us. Only SE coastal NJ and Eastern LI will have to really worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This. Important to keep in tuned to ECMWF highest verification time-frames vs. GFS highest verification time-frames. Some past data on this isn't even applicable because in the upgrades of the respective models. But historically, on average, ECMWF seems most accurate (always exceptions) in the 5-9 day time-frame while GFS seems most accurate (always exceptions) in the 48-96 hour time-frame. In the 12-24 hour time-frame, NAM then does very well. But it is not unsual for one of the models to lose a storm for a day or two and then bring it back within 48 hours of the onset. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.47 inches for ISP if I add it up right, a touch above freezing at the surface, but all snow at the 6 hour intervals from Euro MOS, 1.5 FOK but probably not all snow, but a quick change, looks like. 1.48, all snow, Farmingdale. Historically, it seems that the best place to be is within 5-10 miles of the changeover line to get the best snows. So I guess central Long Island, Farmingdale to Islip would be the place for that (along the coast anyway-- inland, higher rations will create a second jackpot area.) Anyone have any ideas how strong the winds might be? And how long will the storm last-- will it stall or slow down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I, like many mets thot this was a done deal at 72-84 hrs. It is NOT very common to see this. But the trends are the trends. The signs on the ensembles keeping this alive was key. They were the first to keep the faith. It is STILL a thread the needle event so we have to be wary of possible flip flops to come OR a further trend west. Just sayin. But as we get closer, that would seem less likely. But watch out for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm calling it a night. Thanks in advance to all the mets that have been analyzing this mess for over a week now. Its trully been educational and its nice to know that their are people out their that are as crazy about the weather as I am. Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Important to keep in tuned to ECMWF highest verification time-frames vs. GFS highest verification time-frames. Some past data on this isn't even applicable because in the upgrades of the respective models. But historically, on average, ECMWF seems most accurate (always exceptions) in the 5-9 day time-frame while GFS seems most accurate (always exceptions) in the 48-96 hour time-frame. In the 12-24 hour time-frame, NAM then does very well. But it is not unsual for one of the models to lose a storm for a day or two and then bring it back within 48 hours of the onset. WX/PT Are we in the 24-48 hr time interval right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 People worrying about mixing: Jan. 1996 had a mix for a while when low was closest to LI. Same can happen here. We still get dumped on, even if we mix for a short while. A crapload of snow falls way before the low is anywhere near us. Only SE coastal NJ and Eastern LI will have to really worry. yes...I was young then but I do remember the snow being layered almost like a cake with sleet in between. My moms frined actually broke his plow because of the embedded ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 watch the NAM now. inside close range, it is pretty good. I agree with the above posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No it didn't. Check out the map from the GFS a week ago! If it only stayed the course since then!! Ok My Bad..Like I said GFs deserves some Props but Euro kept the big storm Idea for days so that is why it stood out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 He just Reported most of NY and NJ were over 1.0 QPF with Euro and probably have to change his totals once again tomorrow to include more of the area.. Based on the snowfall interval forecasts they issue, I think that means he'll either upgrade from 6-12 to 10-15 or 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah I posted about this a few days ago. We in the TV world had to make a decision on this storm Thursday as it was the last real news viewing people would do until Sunday. So when all the 12z models were unanimous in no storm, that's what we all went with along the East Coast. The risk with that is that now all the people planning to travel home on Sunday will have NO IDEA this is coming until they are driving through it. That's the scary thing about holiday weekend storms....... Radio stations (besides the all-news stations) don't usually do complete weather reports anymore, if they mention the weather at all. So people listening to the radio this weekend won't even know about the storm till it hits them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yes...I was young then but I do remember the snow being layered almost like a cake with sleet in between. My moms frined actually broke his plow because of the embedded ice. Sleet/Ice actually makes the snow last longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 watch the NAM now. inside close range, it is pretty good. I agree with the above posts. It overdoes QPF though....get ready, assuming the track does not change much from here on in its going to have some runs, most likely its 06Z and 18Z, especially the 18s where it shows off the wall QPF amounts, it may show 2.50 + on some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It overdoes QPF though....get ready, assuming the track does not change much from here on in its going to have some runs, most likely its 06Z and 18Z, especially the 18s where it shows off the wall QPF amounts, it may show 2.50 + on some runs. SG, what are your thoughts on this? This has to be the most schizoid storm that I can remember lol. With the way snow is breaking out in the OV, I wonder if it will start early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Radio stations (besides the all-news stations) don't usually do complete weather reports anymore, if they mention the weather at all. So people listening to the radio this weekend won't even know about the storm till it hits them. On top of that, most stores will be closed today. I'm sure there will be a problem with people not having a clue about this thing until it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am absolutely shocked at the trends. Truly an historic event for TRENDS ALONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If this storm pans out - I can see it going down in the books as a big one. Not just for the fact of the projected snow it can dump, but the model flip-flops, the trends, everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah I posted about this a few days ago. We in the TV world had to make a decision on this storm Thursday as it was the last real news viewing people would do until Sunday. So when all the 12z models were unanimous in no storm, that's what we all went with along the East Coast. The risk with that is that now all the people planning to travel home on Sunday will have NO IDEA this is coming until they are driving through it. That's the scary thing about holiday weekend storms....... O/T But you're Dave Skutnik, right? I do believe you had the name 'W-B Weather' at Eastern. Ask for your met tag! Back on-topic, yeah it's kind of scary now with these new developments. It's so easy to write something off (Like the Eagles against the Giants last Sunday, sound familiar now? ) but you have got to keep up. However, it's also tough when people aren't watching TV as much now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't think there will be mixing concerns for the Jersey shore, maybe eastern Suffolk county may see a few hours of mixing. Atlantic City looks to be the jackpot for NJ (pun intended) I think the TV stations should have hyped the possibility of a big storm on Thursday so that people would keep watching through Christmas. After last winter, people will take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SG, what are your thoughts on this? This has to be the most schizoid storm that I can remember lol. With the way snow is breaking out in the OV, I wonder if it will start early. I'm caving at that this point to an event...based purely on the 00Z guidance I'd say 8-16 inches as an across the board area wide guess...there is still a possibility though that this could do something crazy, this includes a track over LI or a near miss....I think a total miss is becoming unlikely but an advisory snow is still a distinct possibility given the sudden swing we've seen to a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On top of that, most stores will be closed today. I'm sure there will be a problem with people not having a clue about this thing until it hits. yes i was worried about that... forgot to buy new shovels today, we had two but they broke because of last year's storms... and i'm still worried about some mixing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am absolutely shocked at the trends. Truly an historic event for TRENDS ALONE! When was the last time such an incredible last-minute trend like this happened? January 25, 2000? Even that event wasn't as big as this one has potential to be for this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is an EXTREMELY impressive loop Weather porn in real-time! http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 has anybody seen this yet from midnight.............hurricane................... http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Big_Changes_in_Snow_Predictions_Going_Into_Potential_Storm_Philadelphia-112445454.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry if this is a little off topic, but I have tickets to the Eagles game Sunday night in Philly. I will get there, I have 4 wheel drive and snow tires and plenty of experience driving in snowstorms, but is there any chance the NFL would cancel the game due to the snow. I know they normally play in snow but this could be a LOT of snow. Anyone in the Philly area have any thoughts? I would love to be at a blizzard game but I would hate to get up there and stuck in Philly and have the game cancelled. Thanks for any thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is an EXTREMELY impressive loop Weather porn in real-time! http://www.weather.g...age=wv&hours=12 That northern feature is reallly digging isn't it... I'd love to hear other comments from the professionals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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