tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Look at the 850 mb temp. gradient over the NYC area at hour 48 on the EURO, tremendous uplift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> You stole my thunder(snow). He made a very good case for this exact solution even before the GFS came back to life. He definitely has my utmost attention from here on in. The man really knows his stuff. Yes he does-- he has a very "indendepent" mindset that I have always thought is a sign of true intelligence. Really makes it clear what can go wrong BUT also shows what's needed to make things go right-- and he was right about needing the GOM to make this work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 greatest to least pink 1.5-1.75 green 1.25-1.5 lgt yellow 1-1.25 lgt blue .75-1 green .5-.75 lgt green .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 snow liquid ratio calculator, for fun http://www.wxalert.info/calc/snow.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lee Goldberg Ch 7 just posted on Tri state Boards..Guess he will be upping his totals tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's up with the QPF perturbation along the coast of NJ and over Cape May county? Pretty awesome. Lol OES for coastal NJ maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The timing of this is very interesting to say the least. People that heard little or nothing about the storm and aren't paying attention over the holiday will turn on the news tomorrow night or Sunday and be in shock. Sunday will be an absolute madhouse at the stores. As an aside did anyone notice the GFS really doesn't warm up until next weekend now and the rainstorm was pushed back to the 2nd-3rd with cold air right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lee Goldberg Ch 7 just posted on Tri state Boards..Guess he will be upping his totals tomorrow.. What did he say? He already had our region up to a foot of snow lol. Up from an inch at 6PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There's gotta be some good frontogenisis with this. I can see a nice pich in the 850 temp contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anyone that thinks this is a lock with 100% certainty has not been paying much attention. yea true I guess I kinda forget were still 2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes he does-- he has a very "indendepent" mindset that I have always thought is a sign of true intelligence. Really makes it clear what can go wrong BUT also shows what's needed to make things go right-- and he was right about needing the GOM to make this work. I started the appreciation thread for him in OT. But his post earlier today about what he'd been watching for and what the rest of us should expect was very very insightful. I wish we had more posts like that where equations are combined with visuals to explain a concept rather than people simply screaming at eachother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anyone that thinks this is a lock with 100% certainty has not been paying much attention. Seriously. The trend is on. Could this trend even MORE west? That would present major mixing issues and less snow. This aint done yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks Again Tom for the analysis and Nice map...that's enough to sleep on...Merry Christmas to You and All !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I can't help but worry about mixing issues. It looks like we might be in trouble in that regard. Even NYC and Long Island might have to worry. ACY is down to 5 inches on the latest GFS. What's up with the QPF perturbation along the coast of NJ and over Cape May county? Pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Actually GFS has snow in here late morning sunday so I'd say more like 30-36 hours. Think of it this way. Only 2 more runs of the Euro before the snow would start yea true I guess I kinda forget were still 2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What did he say? He already had our region up to a foot of snow lol. Up from an inch at 6PM He just Reported most of NY and NJ were over 1.0 QPF with Euro and probably have to change his totals once again tomorrow to include more of the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I didn't call my Aunt Marguerite in Bay Shore today, that GFS contamination thing. This'll be on all the news tomorrow, and she is 85. Of course, not quite the panic Houston sees the day before a hurricane threat, but still. Merry Christmas, formerly from the 11758, now the 77014, and we got at least an inch of rain, so everybody is happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter Storm Watches seem warranted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I have to give the Euro lots of credit for being so consistent with this solution, even if it did lose it for a few runs. The GFS also deserves a lot of credit since it was the first to pick back up on the trend right after the Euro lost it. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mt holly for sure, Upton probably not until afternoon as they seem to be more conservative (though I could be wrong) Winter Storm Watches seem warranted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Per Craig Allen from Facebook.. Id say this statement is worth sharing.. ** Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lee Goldberg Ch 7 just posted on Tri state Boards..Guess he will be upping his totals tomorrow.. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The timing of this is very interesting to say the least. People that heard little or nothing about the storm and aren't paying attention over the holiday will turn on the news tomorrow night or Sunday and be in shock. Sunday will be an absolute madhouse at the stores. As an aside did anyone notice the GFS really doesn't warm up until next weekend now and the rainstorm was pushed back to the 2nd-3rd with cold air right behind it. Yeah I posted about this a few days ago. We in the TV world had to make a decision on this storm Thursday as it was the last real news viewing people would do until Sunday. So when all the 12z models were unanimous in no storm, that's what we all went with along the East Coast. The risk with that is that now all the people planning to travel home on Sunday will have NO IDEA this is coming until they are driving through it. That's the scary thing about holiday weekend storms....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter Storm Watches seem warranted right now. was thinking the same thing...perhaps even blizzard watches from NE NJ on Eastward. If you look at the upton website right now its quite pathetic. They dont even have anybody recieving more than a coating on their snowfall map. I can understand why HPC would be on the side of caution with regards to model errors but to completely toss out the GFS seems to have been a major mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I started the appreciation thread for him in OT. But his post earlier today about what he'd been watching for and what the rest of us should expect was very very insightful. I wish we had more posts like that where equations are combined with visuals to explain a concept rather than people simply screaming at eachother. I know.... I think people get so overly emotional about stuff they cant control its ridiculous. Let's just enjoy the moment lol. I find talking to posters like him a huge learning experience-- because you get down to the "inner workings" and how everything comes together, much better than just model reading-- which doesnt really teach you much outside of learning how to read a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes he does-- he has a very "indendepent" mindset that I have always thought is a sign of true intelligence. Really makes it clear what can go wrong BUT also shows what's needed to make things go right-- and he was right about needing the GOM to make this work. He also made it pretty clear that the GOM was far more favorable than the guidance was projecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link? Not sure Im allowed but here http://tristateweather.yuku.com/forums/7/t/General-Weather-Discussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter Storm Watches will be hoisted early morning. Blizzard watches probably after 12z runs tomorrow, if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.47 inches for ISP if I add it up right, a touch above freezing at the surface, but all snow at the 6 hour intervals from Euro MOS, 1.5 FOK but probably not all snow, but a quick change, looks like. 1.48, all snow, Farmingdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Per Craig Allen from Facebook.. Id say this statement is worth sharing.. ** Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS. And Craig Allen has pretty much seen it all lol. I still remember back in the early 90s there was this one storm where we were forecasted for 5-10 inches of snow after a changeover from rain, and Craig was criticizing the general forecast because he said there were no signs the cold air would get in here in time to change it over to snow. Guess who ended up being right? We didnt even see a single flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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