gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM appears to be a decent hit. Better for LI and SNE. I think a rough look puts NYC around .5". Good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS Ensemble means still burying everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MERRY CHRISTMAS HPC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think we should throw out HPC for eggnog related feedback. Almost like an NFL referee that already knows he's not going to overturn a call regardless of what he sees under the hood. Total speculation though from me, I am not one in a position to question HPC. Still seems odd though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think a major problem we're going to have with this system will be the winds. Check out the 00Z NAM sounding for 06Z on Monday for Islip, NY. 65kt winds aloft with moderate snow and no inversions. The strongest vertical velocities occur coinciding with the strongest winds aloft, too. This thing means business!! I would fully expect blizzard warnings to be issued with this a system this intense. If this type of solution verifies, it'll be incredible. The 18z GFS was cranking up the 850mb winds to over 80 mph (!!!) even here in interior North Jersey for a time; the 0z should be similar. That and moderate snow...amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS Ens. mean actually a good bit north west of it's 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't think HPC is throwing out this run. They're just saying the solution might be too strong due to convective/gridscale feedback. Doesn't mean they don't think we'll still get a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ok now im starting to fall into the wtf is hpc thinking crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS Ensemble means still burying everybody God bless us every one as we approach Christmas morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm sure all the GEFS members suffered from "convective feedback", too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If this type of solution verifies, it'll be incredible. The 18z GFS was cranking up the 850mb winds to over 80 mph (!!!) even here in interior North Jersey for a time; the 0z should be similar. That and moderate snow...amazing. Oh hello there, fellow wind weenie! Glad to have ya back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SPEECHLESS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GEFS 1.25" NYC 1.00" PHL 0.75" I-81 corrdior http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm sure all the GEFS members suffered from "convective feedback", too. Indeed. Someone spiked the punch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This horse has probably been beaten already but the NOGAPS continues to be west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What if hpc is right, feedback issues causing tge big hit?hope not looks really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't think HPC is throwing out this run. They're just saying the solution might be too strong due to convective/gridscale feedback. Doesn't mean they don't think we'll still get a good hit. The immediate NYC metro might benefit more from something a tad east of the GFS and the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Likely wrong because we are lacking gonads.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh, also this was from the MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION and NOT the FORECAST DISCUSSION. The latter doesn't come out for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What if hpc is right, feedback issues causing tge big hit?hope not looks really nice The GFS certainly could (and probably is) a bit nuts, but there is great support tonight for at least a moderate event for NJ northeastward. That's what I take away from it. Even the GGEM and Ukie give me a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The immediate NYC metro might benefit more from something a tad east of the GFS and the GFS ensembles. Mixing issues verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh hello there, fellow wind weenie! Glad to have ya back! It's great to be back! Excellent to see what looks like a smooth transition from Eastern. I had to hold out (for my grades' sake) from joining the new site until after finals; I'm at NYU and commuting, and had no time. So the timing here is perfect...just after the semester ends. It'll be unreal over there in Jersey City if this verifies! It'll be sweet here too, but damn...with those winds coming down the Hudson... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas Everyone. We got one hell of a present coming to us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM and GGEM are still east of our location though... hoping for the .75 though as the ratios would be very high (18:1 possibly) with high winds GEFS 1.25" NYC 1.00" PHL 0.75" I-81 corrdior http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MERRY CHRISTMAS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas! Dreams of crippling snows dance in our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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