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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 6


dryslotted

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HPC is disregarding the GFS

THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNSARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEMMOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION ATTHE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG.

And 12Z GFS too? and the all of the recent runs of the mesoscale models? RGEM? UKIE had a helluva vort...

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<br /><img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/lmaosmiley.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='<img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/lmaosmiley.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':lmao:' />' /><br /><br />Going to assume that you are joking.<br />
<br /><br /><br /><br />I just started hearing that too. Obviously santa must have been flying near the gulf of Mexico and altered the trajectory of the vort max
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I think a major problem we're going to have with this system will be the winds.

Check out the 00Z NAM sounding for 06Z on Monday for Islip, NY.

post-28-0-25336700-1293252373.jpg

65kt winds aloft with moderate snow and no inversions. The strongest vertical velocities occur coinciding with the strongest winds aloft, too. This thing means business!! I would fully expect blizzard warnings to be issued with this a system this intense.

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THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON.

Nothing abnormal.

THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS.

Fine with me.

THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS.

Fine with me.

THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS

ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT

THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG.

Fair enough, every model is suffering from it then.

THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM.

Doesn't really mean anything, but if it does, it argues for a more amplified solution.

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Why, HPC, did every single computer model shift well west tonight, with this "error-ridden" GFS leading the way? Did they all have convective feedback?

First it's initialization errors, and now it's convective feedback. Lol. How about POSITIVE feedback, which makes sense given the atmospheric conditions present?

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HPC is disregarding the GFS

THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNSARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEMMOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION ATTHE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG.

They are just being stubborn at this point, EVERY model tonite has either shown a hit for I-95 or has trended significantly towards it. Excluding the euro of course as its not out yet. I think precip may not come as west as the gfs is thinking but a solid 4+ from dc-nyc seems likely based on the upper air dynamics that are being shown by the models and the fact that WV imagery seems to be in support of a decent phase shortly.

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