bass28 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 is HPC kidding like give up already there wrong and wont admit it look at al of tonights models all decent to big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The Great Zombie Snowstorm of 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC is disregarding the GFS THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNSARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEMMOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION ATTHE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. And 12Z GFS too? and the all of the recent runs of the mesoscale models? RGEM? UKIE had a helluva vort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gfs ens still big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WTF! Been away for the most part since last nights 0Z debacle. WTH is going on!? Been away since that other board disbanded. Yes, WTH is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Going to assume that you are joking. No, the bad part is he's not kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br /><img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/lmaosmiley.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='<img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/lmaosmiley.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />' /><br /><br />Going to assume that you are joking.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I just started hearing that too. Obviously santa must have been flying near the gulf of Mexico and altered the trajectory of the vort max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 is HPC kidding like give up already there wrong and wont admit it look at al of tonights models all decent to big hits. Come on, you know every model is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I googled that sentence that he posted and came up with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Come on....has the HPC ever disregard so many model runs before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html It doesn't even make sense, all of the significant changes occur in the Northern Stream at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html Utter hogwash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC obviously must have reasons for feeling that way. A bunch of weenies shouldnt be in a position to knock them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think we should throw out HPC for eggnog related feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think a major problem we're going to have with this system will be the winds. Check out the 00Z NAM sounding for 06Z on Monday for Islip, NY. 65kt winds aloft with moderate snow and no inversions. The strongest vertical velocities occur coinciding with the strongest winds aloft, too. This thing means business!! I would fully expect blizzard warnings to be issued with this a system this intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS MOS just came off the wire here, based on 10 to 1 gives 8 to 12inches to Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Utter hogwash. The didn't even wait for the UKIE or 0z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC obviously must have reasons for feeling that way. A bunch of weenies shouldnt be in a position to knock them Reasons being their forecast busting. Give me a break. Every model and its mother has virtually the same solution now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUESWITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. Nothing abnormal. THEIR SOUTHERNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. Fine with me. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURETHE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. Fine with me. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNSARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. Fair enough, every model is suffering from it then. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGEINITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM. Doesn't really mean anything, but if it does, it argues for a more amplified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think we should throw out HPC for eggnog related feedback. If the Euro comes west, it'll be a nail in their coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why, HPC, did every single computer model shift well west tonight, with this "error-ridden" GFS leading the way? Did they all have convective feedback? First it's initialization errors, and now it's convective feedback. Lol. How about POSITIVE feedback, which makes sense given the atmospheric conditions present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am sorry, but I think the HPC is being absolutely ridiculous now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RELAX folks! All they are saying is that the GFS is progging the storm stronger than it should be. Back to regular scheduled weenie mob... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM appears to be a decent hit. Better for LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM is west of its 12z run, but still east of American guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LMAO! I think we should throw out HPC for eggnog related feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Need it a little further west Safe to say GGEM is on board: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC is disregarding the GFS THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNSARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEMMOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION ATTHE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. They are just being stubborn at this point, EVERY model tonite has either shown a hit for I-95 or has trended significantly towards it. Excluding the euro of course as its not out yet. I think precip may not come as west as the gfs is thinking but a solid 4+ from dc-nyc seems likely based on the upper air dynamics that are being shown by the models and the fact that WV imagery seems to be in support of a decent phase shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MM5 is a good short range model...take a look at the 36hr h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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