2023 - tracking the tropics

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Belle 1976 was my all time CT. Was expected to LF at 100 plus knots. This is me heading in to surf as Belle was off NJ. Very old Kodak shot. 

Looks like it was taken from your cell phone.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Next !

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it was taken from your cell phone.  

Was on my memory board for 40 years before I moved. I lost all my pictures from my teen ages along with 78 pics when the 83 floods destroyed my parents cellar with 7 feet of water.  I remember that day forever as we snuck past police guarding entrances to Misquamicut Beach. We surfed for 6 hours in epic conditions .The only  3 people in the surf for 5 miles. So glad I saved one pic.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Looks like a nice big S swell on this one for RI

some random spots on S shore of Cape cod that have a narrow open S exposure (between Vineyard and Nantucket longitudes) Should see something ..somewhere between cotuit and Kennedy compound depending on exact angle 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a nice big S swell on this one for RI

some random spots on S shore of Cape cod that have a narrow open S exposure (between Vineyard and Nantucket longitudes) Should see something ..somewhere between cotuit and Kennedy compound depending on exact angle 

Narragansett does pretty well with that

[Sn0waddict]

12z models are way East lol   Good news for the Canadian folks. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Narragansett does pretty well with that

There best swell angle  Is SE but ya they will score 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Edouard was the biggest C-tease ever. Dear God....ugh I have nightmares of that. 

Yea, I was young and naive enough to take it hook-line-and-weenie back then. I scoff at similar present day set ups. Unless you have the huge ULL over the lakes to hoover these things in, adjust east of guidance once above about 38* in latitude.

[Typhoon Tip]

it was never going to be west - not with the modeled hemispheric circulation mode.  no way.

every TC, the models will put out a cycle or two at D6 to 8 lead whence they attempt to violate geophysical mathematics. lol ...Annnd summarily, dopamine drips.

[WinterWolf]

Bottom line..SNE is a very rare tropical hit zone. It’s not Zero obviously, but a quarter century plus between hits is common place. 

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was young and naive enough to take it hook-line-and-weenie back then. I scoff at similar present day set ups. Unless you have the huge ULL over the lakes to hoover these things in, adjust east of guidance once above about 38* in latitude.

Deep down I knew it would be punted east, but I remember seeing that eye just wobble slightly west of 70W at one point I think that morning (it's impacts were at night about 12+ hours later) the weenie got tingled. 

 

We got some wind and rain, but meh. 40-45 stuff. 

[WxWatcher007]

Honestly it’s barely worth tracking tropical if someone is looking for NE impacts. Casual eyes and weenie fodder between July and September. At least October has been a consistent hybrid producer recently.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Deep down I knew it would be punted east, but I remember seeing that eye just wobble slightly west of 70W at one point I think that morning (it's impacts were at night about 12+ hours later) the weenie got tingled. 

 

We got some wind and rain, but meh. 40-45 stuff. 

I was too young. For whatever reason Bonnie was the one that was my baptism by fire. 

Floyd was minor in the whole scheme of things, but I remember the wind swaying the trees during outdoor gym class and cutting the power at my school.

I was already hooked on tropical, but that was the first direct tropical experience I can remember and it was the greatest thing ever for me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it was never going to be west - not with the modeled hemispheric circulation mode.  no way.

every TC, the models will put out a cycle or two at D6 to 8 lead whence they attempt to violate geophysical mathematics. lol ...Annnd summarily, dopamine drips.

Right...I didn't know any better as a 15yo in 1996.

You would think the pros would have-

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was too young. For whatever reason Bonnie was the one that was my baptism by fire. 

Floyd was minor in the whole scheme of things, but I remember the wind swaying the trees during outdoor gym class and cutting the power at my school.

I was already hooked on tropical, but that was the first direct tropical experience I can remember and it was the greatest thing ever for me. 

Floyd was pretty fun (well I enjoyed it being so young). We had this brook that ran a bit back behind our house and I remember getting off the bus from school walking home and it looked more like a raging stream. 

[CoastalWx]

Bertha was semi interesting. Decent winds and a hell of a nighttime tstm in advance of it. Pre-like feature. 

[weatherwiz]

What was the storm we got...I want to say sometime between 2002-2006...I'm pretty sure I was in high school and we got a crap ton of rain and some wind. I think there was even a tornado watch. I want to say maybe 2004 or 2005 (it was not the remnants of Katrina). 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

What was the storm we got...I want to say sometime between 2002-2006...I'm pretty sure I was in high school and we got a crap ton of rain and some wind. I think there was even a tornado watch. I want to say maybe 2004 or 2005 (it was not the remnants of Katrina). 

Isabelle 2003?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Isabelle 2003?

ahhh that sounds familiar. makes sense because I am pretty sure it was during early high school years

[CoastalWx]

I feel like we had a lot of residual leftovers in 04 and especially 05. Could be several. 

 

Maybe Charlie?

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Floyd was pretty fun (well I enjoyed it being so young). We had this brook that ran a bit back behind our house and I remember getting off the bus from school walking home and it looked more like a raging stream. 

Post Floyd, it had basically been misses until Irene for here, which was highly damaging across much of the state but underperformed relative to the forecast even 48 hours out. 

If there’s one dominant theme I see across this site it’s folks being way too sure about how any given system turns out. If there’s anything I’ve learned tracking and now chasing tropical, it’s that you work the uncertainty questions until there’s a rock solid answer. If you look at the legacy threads—you’ll see a lot of early (or late) declarative statements that end up wrong. Myself included. I just try to learn any chance I get. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we had a lot of residual leftovers in 04 and especially 05. Could be several. 

 

Maybe Charlie?

What wild seasons those were

[ineedsnow]

 

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Satellite
images indicate that a new center may be forming farther west, and
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is current investigating
Franklin's wind field to determine if that is the case

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Belle 1976 was my all time CT. Was expected to LF at 100 plus knots. This is me heading in to surf as Belle was off NJ. Very old Kodak shot. 

Not much wind remained when Belle reached northern Maine, but we got 6" RA, most of which fell 6-10 PM.  It nearly took out the apartment building next door when a 3-foot-wide creek became a roaring torrent that put 2 feet of water running across West Main Street (aka Rt 161) in Fort Kent.  After we diverted the flow away from that apt and sent most between it and ours, the water dug a trench 8 feet deep and 12 feet wide.   The apts were ~200 feet from the St. John and next day that land looked like river bottom, all rocks and gravel plus an old car hood.  It blew out 200 feet of Rt 161 in St. Francis along with about 1/3 of all the logging road bridges north of the Realty Road and west of Rt 11.  Only by dumping many loads of gravel on the spans saved the 400-foot bridge across the St. John about 50 miles upriver from FK.

[Chrisrotary12]

45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What was the storm we got...I want to say sometime between 2002-2006...I'm pretty sure I was in high school and we got a crap ton of rain and some wind. I think there was even a tornado watch. I want to say maybe 2004 or 2005 (it was not the remnants of Katrina). 

Charlie would be my guess.

[weatherwiz]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we had a lot of residual leftovers in 04 and especially 05. Could be several. 

 

Maybe Charlie?

 

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Charlie would be my guess.

I think the one I was thinking of was Isabelle, however, I do remember Charlie. I remember talking with my Earth Science teacher about Charlie which I believe was my junior year in HS...Isabelle was a bit before that.

[weatherwiz]

46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Post Floyd, it had basically been misses until Irene for here, which was highly damaging across much of the state but underperformed relative to the forecast even 48 hours out. 

If there’s one dominant theme I see across this site it’s folks being way too sure about how any given system turns out. If there’s anything I’ve learned tracking and now chasing tropical, it’s that you work the uncertainty questions until there’s a rock solid answer. If you look at the legacy threads—you’ll see a lot of early (or late) declarative statements that end up wrong. Myself included. I just try to learn any chance I get. 

I 100% agree with this. You can never be too sure, especially when there are uncertainties still at play. Slight wobbles in track (tropical/winter) can have huge ramifications on extent of impacts and extent/severity of impact. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

I think the one I was thinking of was Isabelle, however, I do remember Charlie. I remember talking with my Earth Science teacher about Charlie which I believe was my junior year in HS...Isabelle was a bit before that.

I remember exactly where I was as Charlie underwent RI before landfall. It was jaw dropping as a kid watching TWC. 

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I 100% agree with this. You can never be too sure, especially when there are uncertainties still at play. Slight wobbles in track (tropical/winter) can have huge ramifications on extent of impacts and extent/severity of impact. 

Yeah, there’s the larger synoptic piece—thinking of an example like Henri and Florence where the guidance and climo heavily favored OTS and things gradually changed…and then there’s the “mesoscale” piece—like today when Harold literally reformed it’s center to the north and developed a partial eyewall just after recon barely could find a closed low and left the system.

There are many obvious cases to Ray’s point. If there isn’t a big ULL over the Great Lakes I can be highly confident nothing’s coming to my backyard, but for the Carolinas to Texas, there are a number of different pathways to get hit and intensity forecasting remains one of the hardest spaces in meteorology, even 6-12 hours out. Ian is a great and terrifying example of that.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I remember exactly where I was as Charlie underwent RI before landfall. It was jaw dropping as a kid watching TWC. 

Yeah, there’s the larger synoptic piece—thinking of an example like Henri and Florence where the guidance and climo heavily favored OTS and things gradually changed…and then there’s the “mesoscale” piece—like today when Harold literally reformed it’s center to the north and developed a partial eyewall just after recon barely could find a closed low and left the system.

There are many obvious cases to Ray’s point. If there isn’t a big ULL over the Great Lakes I can be highly confident nothing’s coming to my backyard, but for the Carolinas to Texas, there are a number of different pathways to get hit and intensity forecasting remains one of the hardest spaces in meteorology, even 6-12 hours out. Ian is a great and terrifying example of that.

What was the storm that Fujiwaraed (sp?) off the SE Coast several years ago? I remember at school one classmate in particular freaking out thinking the storm was going to hit us...remember even some of the models were showing a track into New England or closeby even 3-4 days out and I kept saying no chance b/c the upper pattern didn't favor it. 

I remember one day (this was like the final model run which showed the hit) he said to me "you still think its missing us". I said yes...he went all crazy and during our broadcasts for class he was going all hype crazy  

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

What was the storm that Fujiwaraed (sp?) off the SE Coast several years ago? I remember at school one classmate in particular freaking out thinking the storm was going to hit us...remember even some of the models were showing a track into New England or closeby even 3-4 days out and I kept saying no chance b/c the upper pattern didn't favor it. 

I remember one day (this was like the final model run which showed the hit) he said to me "you still think its missing us". I said yes...he went all crazy and during our broadcasts for class he was going all hype crazy  

Joaquin or Hermine? If it missed I don’t remember it