Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
 Share

Recommended Posts

15 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Goes in spurts…sometimes it gets busy…Irene and then Sandy back to back yrs. Gloria and Bob 6 yrs apart. It’ll Happen again. 

I think Tip made this point previously... but we have been busy. We just haven't had a landfalling hurricane. Henri, Elsa, Isaias, Fay, Irene and to a lesser extent Sandy. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I think Tip made this point previously... but we have been busy. We just haven't had a landfalling hurricane. Henri, Elsa, Isaias, Fay, Irene and to a lesser extent Sandy. 

those were weak sauce tropical systems , The 1 cane was a clown named Irene With generously valued winds at 75.
 

So I guess busy with small weak systems but not like we’ve been dodging formidable canes with very close calls 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Half those were weak sauce barely canes 

Right but that’s just how it goes. The steering pattern has been generally conducive the last decade or so for tropical.

Turning to the basin now, still think Atlantic Canada needs to watch Franklin. Euro goes back to the CAG leading to something in the Caribbean/Gulf homebrew region in just a few days. Models have flirted with that idea but nothing has been really solid.

I started talking about that CAG potential last Wednesday lol. I may love wx, but I’m obsessed with tropical :lol: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

those were weak sauce tropical systems , The 1 cane was a clown named Irene With generously valued winds at 75.
 

So I guess busy with small weak systems but not like we’ve been dodging formidable canes with very close calls 

This is true. These recent misses have hardly been a match to anything from ‘54 or ‘38

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right but that’s just how it goes. The steering pattern has been generally conducive the last decade or so for tropical.

Turning to the basin now, still think Atlantic Canada needs to watch Franklin. Euro goes back to the CAG leading to something in the Caribbean/Gulf homebrew region in just a few days. Models have flirted with that idea but nothing has been really solid.

I started talking about that CAG potential last Wednesday lol. I may love wx, but I’m obsessed with tropical :lol: 

 

I can’t remember tracking a solid cane with the potential to be in tact going over SNE since Bob 30 years ago . 
 

Eduard  in late 2000’s might have been Closest thing 

I’m looking at changing my flight back from Colorado to early in day Tuesday so I can see the big swell if it materializes , that’s how much or a wave weenie I am or somehow it stalls in SW Atlantic longer . Monday /Tuesday look like big swell days for RI and parts of outer cape and islands SE /S facing Beaches

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

I can’t remember tracking a solid cane with the potential to be in tact going over SNE since Bob 30 years ago . 
 

Eduard  in late 2000’s might have been Closest thing 

I’m looking at changing my flight back from Colorado to early in day Tuesday so I can see the big swell if it materializes , that’s how much or a wave weenie I am 

Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. 

I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious **** :lol: 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. 

I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious **** :lol: 

You are right 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. 

I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious **** :lol: 

Edouard was at the very beginning of September, 1996.  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, crownweather said:

Edouard was at the very beginning of September, 1996.  

We thought it would invade our church's Labor Day picnic as it moved almost due north for 2-3 days and was aimed right at us in southern Maine.  At nearly the last moment it made the sharp right turn and was gone.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah... farmer John's recollection here ...

We've observed a lot in the way of decaying TCs that have lifted along the EC - in fact, that sub-classed traffic seems to have increased?

"Gloria" in 1986 was the last MDR long track text book express, but it left something on the table actually because between passing the latitude of Cape May NJ and landfall along L.I. it dropped all the way to Cat 1.  Kind of a rapid weakener.

"Bob" in '91 was a home grown ... but with it 'hooking' right so much it wasn't a higher population impactor.  

What I think is interesting is that while it is likely more true than not, we've had more favorable set ups in recent decade(s), we have also seen an increased number/frequency of those sub- Cat 1 type cyclones. It's interesting what/why for this latter increase - as its own story. 

But otherwise ..we should consider Hugo ... Irene ... Sandy, which 'sort of' did but did not happen to key hole the right parabolic track.  I don't even know if Sandy was an MDR ...but for brevity's sake.  Hugo missed entirely, but hit the EC nonetheless.   Irene was mangled by land too much; got too far west. It was also moving rather slow compared to 'express climo'.  If that had been more east of its verification, I'm not sure that slow rate of ascension would have survived the colder shelf waters S of L.i., anyway. 

At the end of the day, it seems we've seen increased frequency of favorable synoptics, without a big pig.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If you are focused on the results... then yes.... since Bob we've had nothing (except the un-named Cat 1 Scott mentions). But if you focus on the opportunities, as WxWatcher points out... we've had a fairly conducive pattern for a decade.

The rebuild at H5 continues. If you care to donate to the fictional Red Cross, send your account and routing number to [email protected].

  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hugo was actually a heart breaker for cane enthusiasts ( of the 'totally responsible mentality' ilk  lol ..).

I mean, it was a long ... looooong ass tracker that made the entire distance along a clad climo trajectory for ECer's of lore. Even passing within 60 naut miles N of PR...  

You know?  there's this ISE, which is both cumulative for seasons, and for individual TC life.  Integrated Storm Energy. They should one like ISD, integrate storm dildo.  ... it's basically proportional to "the length" of time and space the given system justly spends within the realm of reach and hope without reach-around

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Spot on. We’ve had our windows and have produced, but the impact has been marginal relative to what we could do. We had a lot of those systems weaken substantially on approach, and even though some have been high impact, we haven’t really seen a big widespread deal. It’ll happen eventually, but a lot has to go right (or wrong) for the perfect storm. 


Turning to the basin, Harold has ramped up quickly but ran out of runway. Get a real Gulf system this year and it’ll be trouble, again…

giphy.webp?cid=6c09b952aqsgqs6lj6dolx7bk

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Spot on. We’ve had our windows and have produced, but the impact has been marginal relative to what we could do. We had a lot of those systems weaken substantially on approach, and even though some have been high impact, we haven’t really seen a big widespread deal. It’ll happen eventually, but a lot has to go right (or wrong) for the perfect storm. 


Turning to the basin, Harold has ramped up quickly but ran out of runway. Get a real Gulf system this year and it’ll be trouble, again…

giphy.webp?cid=6c09b952aqsgqs6lj6dolx7bk

 

Screenshot_20230822_111851_RadarScope.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...