metagraphica Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Nice low level swirl showing up east of the Space Coast this morning. Heavy convection getting pushed to the north and east though. We'll see if that swirl and convection can merge or if a different low level center forms under the convection.....or it just remains a big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 So NHC has declared the region some 200 miles E of central Florida as 'Potential Tropical Cyclone 16" I mentioned that region several days ago but the question remained whether whatever comes of it would be purely tropical or some venture along the spectrum to a hybrid type genesis...etc. Still out there. But, judging by the high res imagery and so forth, that looks as though it'd couple to the sea surface pretty readily - so I'm leaning tropical more so now... Having said that/if so, it would change the picture a little up along the upper MA /SNE regions for this weekend. I suspect what the global models are doing is peeling off a bit of warm IB and leaving behind what they "think" is hybrid phased weakening cyclone somewhere along or inland between the Del Marva and NYC to then meander thereafter through early next week. However, *IF* a singular and [probably] more intense/intensifying actual TC occurs, that probably invalidates a lot of that mean synopsis. You could end up with anything from a "Bob", to west impactor, to a curve away with no impact... something else other than these erstwhile solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Congrats canada? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Lets get the 00z GFS to happen. Dryslot out of power for weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get the 00z GFS to happen. Dryslot out of power for weeks. Just keep it active D-J-F and it will be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 11 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get the 00z GFS to happen. Dryslot out of power for weeks. Like what the hell am I looking at? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 GFS is entertaining for Phillipe…. Never able to escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: GFS is entertaining for Phillipe…. Never able to escape. Boxed in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 44 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: GFS is entertaining for Phillipe…. Never able to escape. ? that low that gets trapped is from the low that forms later this week.. Philippe is way out in the eastern atlantic by hr 270 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 night and day so close in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: night and day so close in Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Good chance his energy gets sucked into the main trough now. Looks entertaining to say the least 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Good chance his energy gets sucked into the main trough now. Looks entertaining to say the least Congrats Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Congrats Maine? Perhaps further SW especially if the short term track keep shifting west. It could really enhance the precip though for Saturday aka more flooding rains possible with gusty winds to boot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Substantial track changes on Philippe from the guidance. Definitely a threat to NS now. Banner year for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023 Philippe has continued to lose organization for much of the day. Satellite images and aircraft fixes from this morning indicate that the circulation has become elongated, and the remaining deep convection has relatively little, if any, organization relative to the center, which is now located just north of the Virgin Islands. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier SFMR data, but this could be generous given the overall loss of convective organization. The current motion is northwestward, or 310/10 kt. Over the next couple of days, Philippe is expected to turn northward between a strong mid-level high over the subtropical Atlantic and a developing cut-off low east of Florida, with its forward speed increasing in 2-3 days when it becomes positioned between these two features. The northward motion is expected to continue through the end of the forecast period as another deep-layer trough moves eastward across eastern North America. The most notable change in this NHC forecast is that the guidance has again shifted westward, both due to an adjustment caused by Philippe's recent motion and a general westward trend in the track guidance. The official forecast is close to the TVCA consensus aid, but it's not as far to the west as the latest ECMWF and HCCA solutions. The risk continues to increase for some form of Philippe, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, to reach Atlantic Canada or eastern New England in about 5 days. The deep-layer trough located near the east coast of the United States is likely to keep moderate-to-strong westerly or southwesterly shear over Philippe for much of the forecast period. As a result, little change in strength is forecast during the next 2-3 days. The GFS and ECMWF are now in good agreement that a separate baroclinic/non-tropical low will develop just to the west of Philippe in about 3 days. These two systems are likely to interact, with Philippe becoming attached to the warm front, and therefore becoming extratropical, by day 4. It's possible that Philippe could strengthen slightly due to this baroclinic interaction, and that scenario is shown in the official forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Looks locked to go near Eastport Maine. Should be no big deal for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks locked to go near Eastport Maine. Should be no big deal for many. Yea, every bit as irrelevant as the last one and more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 I hope it was an over correction west and we see ticks back to the east, Would like to see this end up over NS, If it track over DE Maine it will be even less impactful then the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: I hope it was an over correction west and we see ticks back to the east, Would like to see this end up over NS, If it track over DE Maine it will be even less impactful then the last one. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. It’s post-tropical at any rate long before a landfall so there’s no novelty here. Just more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. It’s post-tropical at any rate long before a landfall so there’s no novelty here. Just more rain. I really don't see much in the way of wind that would make this more impactful, We can do without the rain though, Thats my reasoning to see it more to the east, It looks like we get dryslotted between the trough and Philippe as it stands with minimal amounts right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I really don't see much in the way of wind that would make this more impactful, We can do without the rain though, Thats my reasoning to see it more to the east, It looks like we get dryslotted between the trough and Philippe as it stands with minimal amounts right now. If Philippe can somehow become a brief hurricane it’d make my peak forecast perfect with two weeks to go, but I doubt it’s organized enough to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: If Philippe can somehow become a brief hurricane it’d make my peak forecast perfect with two weeks to go, but I doubt it’s organized enough to get there. Its in a fairly hostile environment so i'm not sure that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its in a fairly hostile environment so i'm not sure that will happen. Agree. I’m starting to get into fall mode. Outside of a random hybrid (watch the Gulf/SE in about 10 days) I think the season is basically over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 And the East trend begins.....by Friday this will be east of Nova Scotia lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Luckily there is not an intense hurricane right now southwest of Phillippe's position. The strong trough approaching would yank something northbound quick if placements were just right. This is why New England usually gets it's strongest hurricanes later in the season when fall troughs arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Luckily there is not an intense hurricane right now southwest of Phillippe's position. The strong trough approaching would yank something northbound quick if placements were just right. This is why New England usually gets it's strongest hurricanes later in the season when fall troughs arrive I Think all the hurricanes that land falled New England in 20’th century were late August into September According to the wiki page strongest Carol, Donna, 38 and 44 , Bob Did couple tropical storms had landfalls Earlier and later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I Think all the strong ones were late August into September Carol, Donna, 38 and 44 , Bob What about Sandy…that was October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What about Sandy…that was October. That wasn’t a New England landfall look At the wiki page https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes and Sandy was a big anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 I’d love to see one merge or a hybrid hit us in late October or November and crush elevations with feet of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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