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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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10 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The people who want to see "big damage" simply do not understand and/or downplay the devastation that a redux of 38 would cause.  They vastly underestimate the time it would take to get fully back to normal. They assume it would be a matter of a few days. The reality is the vast majority of people in New England are ill prepared for anything remotely resembling a redux of 1938. 

this! considering the cost of the damages of '38 was in the 10s of millions (adjusted for inflation) the cost of a storm this size these days with incresed population and building density would be incredibly high. 

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I know that I will probably get a lot of flack from people over this but I wish that I had the opportunity to see just one major hurricane in my llifetime. I greatly envy the people who got to experience legendary storms like 1635, 1938, and even Carol. I never even got to experience Bob in 1991. Sure, the blizzards that we get are a thrill in terms of extreme weather but even 18 inches of snow isn't as thrilling as 100-120mph winds. I'm a homeowner but I can deal with the damage from a storm like that. Just the thrill of seeing 100+mph winds is worth it for me. I've heard that the return period for a major in New England is 70 years but from 1635 to 1815 there wasnt a major....imagine if we have to wait another 100+ years to get another one? Carol was only like 70 years ago. I guess I could always take a trip to Florida for a major but it isn't the same as experiencing one in your own town.

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1 hour ago, WJX231 said:

I know that I will probably get a lot of flack from people over this but I wish that I had the opportunity to see just one major hurricane in my llifetime. I greatly envy the people who got to experience legendary storms like 1635, 1938, and even Carol. I never even got to experience Bob in 1991. Sure, the blizzards that we get are a thrill in terms of extreme weather but even 18 inches of snow isn't as thrilling as 100-120mph winds. I'm a homeowner but I can deal with the damage from a storm like that. Just the thrill of seeing 100+mph winds is worth it for me. I've heard that the return period for a major in New England is 70 years but from 1635 to 1815 there wasnt a major....imagine if we have to wait another 100+ years to get another one? Carol was only like 70 years ago. I guess I could always take a trip to Florida for a major but it isn't the same as experiencing one in your own town.

So chase one 

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So chase one 

Yeah, like I said, chasing one is just not the same as experiencing it at home. I guess beggars cant be choosers but it must be nice to live in like Florida and not have to travel very far to see one. Floridas longest hurricane gap was what, 11 years between 2005 and 2016? I would never want to move to the south either though since I'm not a fan of the heat. So I guess you cant win...

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dud season, Hurricane forecasts fail. On to winter

Why is it a fail because it didn't hit us? Lol..

Man You have no idea. My folks got hit by hurricane again Ian last year and only did it. Devastate for Myers and Cape Coral, but they had lots of damage at their own house. Just because people have insurance. Insurance doesn't mean that they don't have to endure the costs and the heartache of everything it brings. So before you go, wishing to have a big storm hit us here, I hope this helps you understand why getting hit with a hurricane isn't as fun as you think. And I swear some of you guys on here must I've been dropped when you were babies..lol

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2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Why is it a fail because it didn't hit us? Lol..

Man You have no idea. My folks got hit by hurricane again Ian last year and only did it. Devastate for Myers and Cape Coral, but they had lots of damage at their own house. Just because people have insurance. Insurance doesn't mean that they don't have to endure the costs and the heartache of everything it brings. So before you go, wishing to have a big storm hit us here, I hope this helps you understand why getting hit with a hurricane isn't as fun as you think. And I swear some of you guys on here must I've been dropped when you were babies..lol

I don’t think Steve is in the let’s get hit camp lol. 

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I brought this up over in the general September thread ... but, probably should be here.

This inverted trough and closing low llv pp off the Georgia coast may be the guidance et al in a primitive detection for a tropical/sub-tropical development. eps_lowlocs_us_27.png

 

I feel this is a ligit synoptic tendency there, because of the super-synoptic aspects going on across our hemisphere at the time.  Namely, the large anticyclone moving through Ontario/Quebec and New England toward the end of the week, would tend to accentuate an easterly return flow into the lower M/A. 

Additionally, the early week coastal reflection lifting northeast off/thru the region will lay in a decaying frontal boundary down there, which would extending seaward from the coast. So, ...E wind over top W wind. Meanwhile, the entire Basin including this region in question above, may yet remain in a divergence anomaly as prescribed by both persistence and the fact that there do not at this time appear to be any compelling reasons to change that static pattern. 

Presently CPC's 8+ day hazards has the SE/ M/A regions in a risk for excessive rainfall.  We also have a low grade sort of flood risk in our area due to the antecedent "wet season" of summer ( weird...).  Less than an organized TC, there's that too.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Why is it a fail because it didn't hit us? Lol..

Man You have no idea. My folks got hit by hurricane again Ian last year and only did it. Devastate for Myers and Cape Coral, but they had lots of damage at their own house. Just because people have insurance. Insurance doesn't mean that they don't have to endure the costs and the heartache of everything it brings. So before you go, wishing to have a big storm hit us here, I hope this helps you understand why getting hit with a hurricane isn't as fun as you think. And I swear some of you guys on here must I've been dropped when you were babies..lol

Lol obviously have no idea what I think about getting hit by a hurricane. You might not know but my hometown was hit in 38 , 200 people died, so yea not fun. I might have been dropped on my head though.

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