WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 This thread is always good for some laughs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: We need something Weather has been boring 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Sable island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 GFS is insistent that the current LLC will die off and another will form farther Northeast (which is entirely possible due to the high levels of shear). If that doesn't pan out, I'd expect the track will be adjusted to the west somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 El Nino summers are usually produce lackluster Atlantic years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 12z ICON and GFS are shifting way West, I wouldn't write this one off just yet. Frankly I think there's a scenario where Franklin misses us to the South and hits somewhere else on the EC, depending on how ridging builds in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: This thread is always good for some laughs An annual thread for this topic is a good laugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 And so it begins. Went from nothing to an explosion of named storms. A week ago, as I was talking to my neighbor the topic shifted to the weather, namingly FL. and the chances of getting hit this season. Trying to keep it simple without detailed factors I told of my estimate 18-20 named storms out of those 8-12 hurricanes, 2-4 Major. I mentioned first would be home grown a Gulf of Mexico LF of what intensity unknown. Given the heat content I wouldn't be surprised with having several named at once. A season that will seem to never end..well into late Oct., odds of a FL. LF hurricane >80% Talk about being vague! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: An annual thread for this topic is a good laugh. It's like folks along the Gulf Coast having an annual thread for winter storms. Except for Maritime Canada. They're on a heater recently. This one looks legit for them. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 26 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: 12z ICON and GFS are shifting way West, I wouldn't write this one off just yet. Frankly I think there's a scenario where Franklin misses us to the South and hits somewhere else on the EC, depending on how ridging builds in. I still think this is a Maritime Canada/OTS risk. Maybe 55% Canada/45% OTS. Just not seeing the cutoff troughing we need on the models, and every mile east after DR/Haiti makes it less likely it ever hooks back west enough for NE IMO. I'd want to see smoothing of that hook north of the Antilles as the first step to even be in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I still think this is a Maritime Canada/OTS risk. Maybe 55% Canada/45% OTS. Just not seeing the cutoff troughing we need on the models, and every mile east after DR/Haiti makes it less likely it ever hooks back west enough for NE IMO. I'd want to see smoothing of that hook north of the Antilles as the first step to even be in the game. 12z GEFS west also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z GEFS west also We're talking and doing the analysis of course, but I still think we're not going to have a good sense of this one until it gets into the SW Atlantic. Also interesting to note that with greater ridging across the Atlantic, this run of the GFS takes 92L across the basin and off the Bahamas in about 10 days. Even forces it SW. If the ridging is really coming on like that, that's interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Too much troughing this far east. I don't see any chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 50 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: 12z ICON and GFS are shifting way West, I wouldn't write this one off just yet. Frankly I think there's a scenario where Franklin misses us to the South and hits somewhere else on the EC, depending on how ridging builds in. 12z GFS looks identical to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Too much troughing this far east. I don't see any chance. It's an extremely tough sell for NE. Looks legit risky for @Hazey to Nick though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's an extremely tough sell for NE. Looks legit risky for @Hazey to Nick though. Even if it misses the first trough, the second one coming in may not be sharp enough. Different story for NS. Not trying to piss on the tropical weenie cheerios, but looks difficult to get that close to SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even if it misses the first trough, the second one coming in may not be sharp enough. Different story for NS. Not trying to piss on the tropical weenie cheerios, but looks difficult to get that close to SNE. Yep. Once we lost the July pattern tropical became a hell of a lot harder here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yep. Once we lost the July pattern tropical became a hell of a lot harder here. That’s why it’s so rare around here…we know this, but yet we all hope. It’s even more rare in SoCal…but it can even happen there too as we are seeing yesterday and today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s why it’s so rare around here…we know this, but yet we all hope. It’s even more rare in SoCal…but it can even happen there too as we are seeing yesterday and today. Funny because 1938-60, we had 5 solid landfalls, three majors and Donna/44 were hardly minimal even up here. wasn't too rare then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Funny because 1938-60, we had 5 solid landfalls, three majors and Donna/44 were hardly minimal even up here. wasn't too rare then. Wish then was now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Wish then was now. Glad we caught Gloria and Bob, imagine never seeing a hurricane. Younger folks may face this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 What’s EPS have ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What’s EPS have ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Even if it misses the first trough, the second one coming in may not be sharp enough. Different story for NS. Not trying to piss on the tropical weenie cheerios, but looks difficult to get that close to SNE. Sure you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Funny because 1938-60, we had 5 solid landfalls, three majors and Donna/44 were hardly minimal even up here. wasn't too rare then. Goes in spurts…sometimes it gets busy…Irene and then Sandy back to back yrs. Gloria and Bob 6 yrs apart. It’ll Happen again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Look perfect to me. No damage for anyone and some good swells for surfing, body boarding, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, metagraphica said: Look perfect to me. No damage for anyone and some good swells for surfing, body boarding, etc... That’s just the way we like them, close enough to limit swell decay but not so close that we get into the circulation and end up with winds too strong. I’ll never forget Gustav 9/11/02. 10-12’ swells on Long Island in the morning with light winds turned to 50-60mph offshore winds by mid morning and poof the swell was gone. Extreme example but shows what happens when you get too close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, metagraphica said: Look perfect to me. No damage for anyone and some good swells for surfing, body boarding, etc... Sandy track 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 3 hours ago, metagraphica said: Look perfect to me. No damage for anyone and some good swells for surfing, body boarding, etc... Except that 92% of us on this board want a direct hit with damage 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except that 92% of us on this board want a direct hit with damage As much as the tracking, observations, wind and rain would be a blast, I can really do without living on a generator for a week or more. Done that more than enough times in the 14 years at this place. (11 days for Irene, 5 days for Sandy, a week for Isaias and a bunch of other times for various storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except that 92% of us on this board want a direct hit with damage it's possible that 92% of us will never see that happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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