2023 - tracking the tropics

[HimoorWx]

Out in Eastham this week. When can we expect the surf to start kicking up? Might have to head to the bay side beaches.

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[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Out in Eastham this week. When can we expect the surf to start kicking up? Might have to head to the bay side beaches.

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Love the bay side. No sharks and warm water. 

[HimoorWx]

Love the bay side. No sharks and warm water. 

Bay side is nice and First Encounter is just down the road, but the national seashore beaches are spectacular. Went to Marconi on Friday; no crowd but water was frigid.

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[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HimoorWx said:

Bay side is nice and First Encounter is just down the road, but the national seashore beaches are spectacular. Went to Marconi on Friday; no crowd but water was frigid.

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They’re beautiful, but if I go to the beach I want to be in the water lol. 
Love First Encounter.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

41 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Out in Eastham this week. When can we expect the surf to start kicking up? Might have to head to the bay side beaches.

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Eastham is going to have quite the current as the beach lies North - south (Faces East) And the swells are coming from the SSE/SE . S and SE facing Beaches shores will see best swell thru Thursday - Friday  . The initial pulse  swell is hitting the beaches already . Swell building next 5+ days 
 

Swells differentiate visually from the usual wind wave crap by being a much wider (one wave runs a few hundred feet up and down the beach and Is more “organized  “ in the way it breaks 

By later Thursday swell size will jump and be very large Friday . Saturday depending on wether winds are side shore or onshore will be huge and sloppy or if the system is further out you could have 20+ foot waves and slight offshore breeze (clean conditions) once a decade ish surf 

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Roller coaster is a great way to put it. You literally know how the ride will go before hopping on, and despite how much it makes you want to scream or puke you can't get off until you run out of track. 

Weenie posts! Meh posts! Fear! Excitement! Morality debate!

Dopamine drips or saline solution at every turn!

Busy the last few days so have not been in here but the last 7 pages or so was entertaining with all the wild mood swings, Just getting caught up, 06z EPS looks like its come west a bit from the 0z run, A lot less east outliers at 06z.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Busy the last few days so have not been in here but the last 7 pages or so was entertaining with all the wild mood swings, Just getting caught up, 06z EPS looks like its come west a bit from the 0z run, A lot less east outliers at 06z.

Has that been posted - just checking in for first time today 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Has that been posted - just checking in for first time today 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Jconsor had a interesting post (that I’m not intelligent enough to copy from main tropical lee thread ) about making sure you look at the 250mb level with regard to being in a negative tilt (and almost making up for a less than “historically ideal” 500mb trough For New England As it can lead to NW pull

 

Maybe that was already known but that is one trend I’m watching and if someone could link that , folks would probably enjoy it for its inherent meteorological value , wether this hits or not 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

If you used the same ending time as 6z ensembles (6z Sunday) I’m pretty sure 0z ens at hour 150 (6z Sunday ) would be about the same 

i.e 0z ens at hr 144 is moving NNW at the time your above post shows (0z Sunday ) next frame (hr 150)  matches the 6z at hr 144 Pretty well 

[MarkO]

Agreed with others here. A slow moving cane will lose it's inner core once it passes the gulf stream. If it takes the left hook, it will become extratropical and have a larger, but less intense wind field. We'd need a Long Island Express type cane for big winds, and that's not happening. 

[Spaizzo]

West side if we were to be brushed. Lots of rain? Sorry after Irene I wouldn’t wish that rain inundation on anyone. Down here we’ve had some really good torrential rains the past day. More rain to come and in more rain and a little wind trees toppling due to moist ground would be my concern here. The flooding VT and other areas got during Irene the scars are still evident driving from Greenfield to Wilmington/Dover area. One thing I wouldn’t want to wish on anyone.


.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you used the same ending time as 6z ensembles (6z Sunday) I’m pretty sure 0z ens at hour 150 (6z Sunday ) would be about the same 

i.e 0z ens at hr 144 is moving NNW at the time your above post shows (0z Sunday ) next frame (hr 150)  matches the 6z at hr 144 Pretty well 

I would have, It went from 0z to 12z on the 0z EPS, Can't get the 06z panel like the 06z run

[dryslot]

It would be tracking slower over colder waters so as it expands, Its probably going to start losing its tropical characteristics and may be a Cat 1 or a TS on arrival if it LF here in the NE.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would have, It went from 0z to 12z on the 0z EPS, Can't get the 06z panel like the 06z run

When I look at that on pivotal (6 hr increments) it looks like 6z ens (hr 144) have more that are A tad further south (compared to 0z ens) At same time .
 

Probably looking at it too closely but that is a Subtle difference I see (not getting as much latitude )

[weatherwiz]

This can't be ignored, but let's see we got TS wind gusts across a large part of the region as a result of an expanded wind field. Given the very saturated grounds and fully leaved trees power outages would be a greater concern than usual for winds that we usually see several times in the late fall/winter. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It would be tracking slower over colder waters so as it expands, Its probably going to start losing its tropical characteristics and may be a Cat 1 or a TS on arrival if it LF here in the NE.

Agree, though we’re only now starting to hone in on the final forecast, so we have to see what that ET transition looks like and how much strength this’ll maintain. The size of the storm may make it more impactful than it’d otherwise be.

[CoastalWx]

Picks,

 

You can see it goes negative here. I think it would act to help attract it NW because of the venting aloft (divergence). 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree, though we’re only now starting to hone in on the final forecast, so we have to see what that ET transition looks like and how much strength this’ll maintain. The size of the storm may make it more impactful than it’d otherwise be.

This is exactly what I was getting at with that post I made a few weeks back about colder waters. A slow moving storm is going to weaken and transition pretty quickly. 

[Sn0waddict]

Looks slightly west of 6z but nothing too drastic.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This can't be ignored, but let's see we got TS wind gusts across a large part of the region as a result of an expanded wind field. Given the very saturated grounds and fully leaved trees power outages would be a greater concern than usual for winds that we usually see several times in the late fall/winter. 

 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree, though we’re only now starting to hone in on the final forecast, so we have to see what that ET transition looks like and how much strength this’ll maintain. The size of the storm may make it more impactful than it’d otherwise be.

Agree, TS storm winds would have a greater impact as mentioned, Saturated ground with leaf trees, Would have a greater power outage impact.

[CT Rain]

Who's going to put the nail in this thing's coffin and start a Lee thread?

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Who's going to put the nail in this thing's coffin and start a Lee thread?

I think Kevin already did that when he made comparisons to '38

[CoastalWx]

I  myself and looked at BUFKIT. Even BDL could gust near 50kts. Weak inversion at BOS, but 70kt potential if it breaks. 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Who's going to put the nail in this thing's coffin and start a Lee thread?

go for it

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I  myself and looked at BUFKIT. Even BDL could gust near 50kts. Weak inversion at BOS, but 70kt potential if it breaks. 

You shouldn't have done it

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This can't be ignored, but let's see we got TS wind gusts across a large part of the region as a result of an expanded wind field. Given the very saturated grounds and fully leaved trees power outages would be a greater concern than usual for winds that we usually see several times in the late fall/winter. 

It depends on why the wind field is expanding -

I sense that folks are forgetting how the barotropic PGF layout realizes wind, compared to extratropical storms or those transition(ing)(ed).  I'll go ahead for the sake of diplomacy assume folks are thinking this system transitions quickly to a deep ETL -

If the 'expansion' is because this is transition ( quicker ...) into an extratropical low, then the PGF expands farther out from the center, but you also get other jet mechanics going - like CCB like features and so forth associated with thermal gradients.  Which you need those if you are going to realize higher wind on the W-NW arc while the cyclone is passing by to the SE of your location. 

If the system remains barotropically intact as it is moving passed, there will be less wind experienced, relative to the pressure gradient on the isobaric layout, do to the motion of the storm counteracting the inward restoring air flow

[ineedsnow]

big storms firing north of the center now... hope Lee can wrap up more

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It depends on why the wind field is expanding -

I sense that folks are forgetting how the barotropic PGF layout realizes wind, compared to extratropical storms or those transition(ing)(ed).  I'll go ahead for the sake of diplomacy assume folks are thinking this system transitions quickly to a deep ETL -

If the 'expansion' is because this is transition ( quicker ...) into an extratropical low, then the PGF expands farther out from the center, but you also get other jet mechanics going - like CCB's like features and so forth.  Which you need those if you are going to realize higher wind on the W-NW arc while the cyclone is passing by to the SE of your location. 

If the system remains barotropically intact as it is moving passed, there will be less wind experienced, relative to the pressure gradient on the isobaric layout, do to the motion of the store counteracting the inward restoring air flow

Yes, great post. It's important to understand this in great depth. 

[WxWatcher007]

Writing an OP for a Lee thread now.