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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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It just looks “well-timed” to me verbatim on the run. I don’t see how that’s outside the realm of non-long shot possibility. 

Kinda funny to see the usual tropical fault line establishing itself. 

For Team Meh, this run isn’t a one off. There’s a three day general trend toward a closer approach across guidance and ensembles. Ensembles still lead by far, which are further east, but the ops become more interesting the closer in time we get. 

For Team Hit cheering me on now…this is still ~6/7 days out—an eternity in tropical tracking. A trend today can easily shift back tomorrow. And the ensembles still lead. 

Updating my odds, I think it’s a 50% LF risk for Atlantic Canada/30% New England (10% SNE/20% ENE)/20% OTS. 

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