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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling.  The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going?  It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane.  I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%.  Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening.

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This isn't a situation where you just want to see slight ticks west...you really want to see a significant jump east. And by significant I mean more than just an OP run or a few ens members. There is substantial work to get such a significant jump. The window certainly isn't closed, but its just about fully shut.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This isn't a situation where you just want to see slight ticks west...you really want to see a significant jump east. And by significant I mean more than just an OP run or a few ens members. There is substantial work to get such a significant jump. The window certainly isn't closed, but its just about fully shut.

we did.. look at the eps and gefs members compared to last night 

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1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling.  The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going?  It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane.  I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%.  Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening.

LOL I got weenied for this?

 

95fbb0_2c5e25b7303e43dfa2f2edbfaf22aa96~mv2.png

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This isn't a situation where you just want to see slight ticks west...you really want to see a significant jump east. And by significant I mean more than just an OP run or a few ens members. There is substantial work to get such a significant jump. The window certainly isn't closed, but its just about fully shut.

You meant sig jump west, but yeah you're right.  Need that eastern side to start jumping ship very very far west and soon

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18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

even better if it were to hit it wouldnt take much wind with saturated ground to start knocking over some trees

That’s how 38 was.  Wet humid summer like this one and heavy rains week prior . If not Lee it’ll be the next one later following week . One way or another, it’s coming 

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6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we did.. look at the eps and gefs members compared to last night 

eh I just don't think it's enough. IMO you want to see several members well west. We're starting to get into the range where the models aren't going to be too far off from the synoptic evolution. I do think there is a chance portions of Maine could see some rain and gusty winds but that's pretty much it. 

The wave off Africa which the GFS slams us with down the road may have better potential given its starting off much farther south. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

eh I just don't think it's enough. IMO you want to see several members well west. We're starting to get into the range where the models aren't going to be too far off from the synoptic evolution. I do think there is a chance portions of Maine could see some rain and gusty winds but that's pretty much it. 

The wave off Africa which the GFS slams us with down the road may have better potential given its starting off much farther south. 

IDK looked pretty far west to me from 0z

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s how 38 of as. Wet humid summer like this one and heavy rains week prior . If not Lee it’ll be the first ne later following week . One way or another, it’s coming 

That second storm has a much more of a track that has New England possibilities for landfall.  If that one forms like the GFS is hinting at, we'll need to watch it.

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