WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 I do think the westward trend in the guidance for 90L (I expect recon to find a TS) is worth watching. Maybe not enough for here, but certainly would be keeping an eye in Atlantic Canada. 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Let's do a quick deep dive on two of the five areas I highlighted yesterday--the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and Invest 90L. Gulf Disturbance I tagged yesterday's disturbance with 60% odds of eventual development when it was moving through the Bahamas and Florida, and now that it has reached the eastern Gulf I am even more bullish given today's satellite appearance. To be clear: this one needs some work and there's not a lot of time to do it. That said, the quick convective burst and indications that it's trying to form into a low makes it worth an invest tag to me. The environment overall looks favorable. There is very little shear present and that should remain the case as this moves west. Once again, we obviously know that the SSTs are not an issue, with literally some of the warmest water on Earth in the Gulf and a deep reservoir of OHC. Moisture looks solid not great, but given where the vorticity is trying to tighten and the convective bursts we're seeing, I don't think drier continental air is a limiting factor yet. We'll see. I think time is the greatest limiting factor here, but kind of like Hanna a few years ago, if this can get a good organizational burst today/tonight that could bode well for another named storm to develop as this enters the western Gulf and the TX/Mexico border early Tuesday. Again, not a lot of time, and nothing can happen until there's a legitimate low, which we do not have yet. Invest 90L This one is worth watching IMO. I think it is a contender to be the strongest system of the season thus far in the long range. Recon is expected to sample this later today and I believe they will find a tropical storm. In the visible you can clearly see a low level circulation, but there are some significant issues keeping this from taking off. There is very evident northerly shear that is pushing the convective burst that should be over the center further south. That's how we can see that there is a clear LLC In addition to the shear, there is dry air to the north that is causing issues as well. I don't expect dry air to be as big an issue long term, but for now the shear/dry air combo is keeping this one in check. This would be taking off IMO without the combination, because the convective bursts that we have seen have been persistent and intense--really allowing this to be as organized (and it's not terribly organized) as it is now. I'm intrigued by the long range because it looks like the environment after a potential landfall near DR/Haiti will be conducive for additional development. In fact, both the GFS and Euro operational guidance has this becoming a strong system in the open Atlantic. I still think we need to wait for this to cross the Antilles back into the Atlantic before fully understanding the long term future of 90L, but overall, troughing is going to lift this north into the Atlantic. How far west this gets before that turn seems important, and certainly what other impulses in the Atlantic exist ahead of 90L, because both the Euro and GFS have a ridge over the CONUS and have trended toward a subtropical ridge building in to drive what is likely a named storm by then northward. Throw in any kind of trough in there to either cause a weakness between the ridges to go OTS, or in the case of a cutoff in the east change steering toward land, and we have a very complex forecast. Given the complexity of the forecast long range, and the shift west we've seen in ensemble guidance as 90L continues to develop, this one is certainly worth a close eye in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and to a lesser extent the US east coast. A lot of tracking to do this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 congrats Eastport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I do think the westward trend in the guidance for 90L (I expect recon to find a TS) is worth watching. Maybe not enough for here, but certainly would be keeping an eye in Atlantic Canada. still 8 or 9 days away it could go either way but will be watching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: still 8 or 9 days away it could go either way but will be watching Yeah, any BS trough in the east could kick it away, but we've had a lot of anomalous cutoffs... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 I always wait all year for a good swell ..please slow this down for a couple days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Yeah don’t like where this is trending. F that gfs run. Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yeah don’t like where this is trending. F that gfs run. Yikes. 12z GEFS shifting west it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 6z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 27 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yeah don’t like where this is trending. F that gfs run. Yikes. Let’s see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Let’s see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Euro uses most of its 12z run today to stall what will likely be Franklin at 5pm east of the Bahamas. I've aways felt that these TCs are a bit move it or lose it. I think these slow Atlantic movers are just waiting for a kicker to arrive more often than not. Not sure that's what'll happen on this run, but it's an illustration of how difficult a forecast this is currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Doesn't really matter at range because there's a lot to sort out, but the 12z Euro continued the overall trend of a more westward 90L. 00z had it basically around Bermuda. We'll see what the ensembles do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Long way to go with all the usual caveats but this at least initially looks looks like a Maritime Canada contendah to me. Just the timing and strength of those ridges look like trouble. Doubt the EPS has such an extended stall, which will impact what the members do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Doesn't really matter at range because there's a lot to sort out, but the 12z Euro continued the overall trend of a more westward 90L. 00z had it basically around Bermuda. We'll see what the ensembles do. And on that euro run to add to the uncertainties another TC forming by the keys and heading north! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Definitely something to monitor and it appears to be taking off too so models should adjust accordingly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 the persistent 80 ... 90W trough leitmotif this summer does offer some intriguing questions should one of these approach the "key slot" from N of PR to the outer Bahamas. It's not like that recurring theme makes that one factor hard to imagine happening... However, the weak and expanded HC is not the best circumstance. Home grown would be better... obviously. But for MDR puppies, they'll tend to get picked up too early by briefly plumbed troughs or weakness. Beta drift will become dominate track guidance early in life, when the steering levels are weaker ...which then added to the former lowers the total shitty chance scenario. It doesn't have to be coherently observed ... we're talking tendency here. I don't know if the trough is even going to be 80/90W. It's modeled to come back by D5 in some products. The EPS is completely wrongly constructing the hemisphere day 3-10 on the 00z guidance but...there's likely some members farther west with that axis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 00z 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Doesn't really matter at range because there's a lot to sort out, but the 12z Euro continued the overall trend of a more westward 90L. 00z had it basically around Bermuda. We'll see what the ensembles do. Yes plz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Bring 'er in. Let's gooo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 18z Euro to cuba as weak storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z Euro to cuba as weak storm? I have a hard time seeing this coming apart before hitting one of the islands given how resilient it has been so far in the face of shear/dry air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Fish storm or Nova Scotia 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Fish storm or Nova Scotia I guess the islands don't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I guess the islands don't count Sable island? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Fish storm or Nova Scotia We need something Weather has been boring 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We need something Weather has been boring I feel like it's been either flooding or tornadoes like every week this summer! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: I feel like it's been either flooding or tornadoes like every week this summer! Bring back last winter....exciting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: I feel like it's been either flooding or tornadoes like every week this summer! Where? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Where? New England 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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