Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Any hits are. Just the idea that it’s possible is enough. Welcome back 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Any hits are. Just the idea that it’s possible is enough. Oh sure, show up when things get exciting. Where were you when we needed help arguing dew points? Golfing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, kdxken said: Oh sure, show up when things get exciting. Where were you when we needed help arguing dew points? Golfing? It was a great summer but I lacked bandwidth for summer doldrums dew and rain banter. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Welcome back Thanks man. GL with Lee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Is it a sign? A warning? From one of my game cameras today... https://youtu.be/c9jNAOICvOc?feature=shared 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Euro will probably go 200 miles east at 00z. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 I didn't read the 5pm NHC disc until now, but they mention the turn north, and the gfs being much much faster than the Euro (or GGEM for that matter) Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Lee is moving west- northwestward at about 9 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the north of Lee is foreast to shift west-southwestward during the next few days, causing Lee's forward speed to slow considerably through early next week. By midweek, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great Lakes region and into the eastern United States is expected to weaken the ridge and allow Lee to turn north-northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. There is still a significant amount of spread in the deterministic guidance and global model ensembles as to exactly when and where the northward turn takes place. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models are about 275 n mi apart at day 5, primarily due to along-track spread related to how fast Lee begins moving northward. The NHC track forecast continues to lie near the latest consensus aids, and the new track is very similar to the previous forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro will probably go 200 miles east at 00z. I would set the line at 150 East of 12z op but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 The off hour euro ensembles May soon be worth looking at to see if the pieces get into place for the tug- tickle north of Bermuda ( I believe they go out to 144 and the Op only 90) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Any hits are. Just the idea that it’s possible is enough. Lurking since winter, this one drawing me out... I'm loving the suspense, but I share a bit of nervousness. Funny how being a new homeowner with toddler+baby in the house changes perspective on things... years ago I'd be debating whether I drive to Buzzards Bay or Cape. My gut atm says ~5% SNE / 40% Maine/Canada / 55% OTS. But I could see guidance make an abrupt jump like the 12z Euro, contingent on slower timing and trough interaction... sort of reflected in the 2 GEFS clusters at 18z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Lurking since winter, this one drawing me out... I'm loving the suspense, but I share a bit of nervousness. Funny how being a new homeowner with toddler+baby in the house changes perspective on things... years ago I'd be debating whether I drive to Buzzards Bay or Cape. My gut atm says ~5% SNE / 40% Maine/Canada / 55% OTS. But I could see guidance make an abrupt jump like the 12z Euro, contingent on slower timing and trough interaction... sort of reflected in the 2 GEFS clusters at 18z. Congrats and yes that’s my take. I get the meteorological handjob some are begging for but my livelihood takes precedent. I like power and my roof in tact. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congrats and yes that’s my take. I get the meteorological handjob some are begging for but my livelihood takes precedent. I like power and my roof in tact. Thankfully It would take a miracle to get your roof damaged in west CT on this one . EMass beggars have a punchers chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks man. GL with Lee. Let’s take as many trees as possible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 EMAATT may hold true here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Right on cue Alot of hype right after the 12z Euro. Bunch of idiots 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 “can’t take care of his own mother” Just another level 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 18z EPS looks like it would have more west members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z EPS looks like it would have more west members Post it sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Post it sir Let’s just make our own! 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Post it sir you can update between 12z hr150 and 18z hr144 https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=144&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=240&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s take as many trees as possible Have you finished finalizing your storm preparations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 There definitely seems to be a mainstream OTS camp and western camp now on the models and ENS. Interest rising. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: There definitely seems to be a mainstream OTS camp and western camp now on the models and ENS. Interest rising. Just interest rising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Just interest rising? Weenie in check. For now. I’ll be in PHX until Friday this week, so I’ll be able to see the late night runs come in real early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 00z Euro may be 100 mikes west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 00z Euro may be 100 mikes west The eye is going to go right over Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 00z Euro may be 100 mikes west I know its the NAM but just looking at trends for 0z and the trend looks to be our friend 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 please not the NAM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 There remains a significant amount of spread in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on when this turn occurs, and then how quickly Lee accelerates northward. For now the NHC track forecast remains closest to the consensus aids, which have slowed a bit from the prior cycle, and the latest track forecast is a bit slower but near the same trajectory as the prior advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: please not the NAM Practice for winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now