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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That would be the worst possible placement for the Halifax-Dartmouth area.

Yeah, it’s ugly for them verbatim. I don’t know much about the topography, but I imagine the surge would be bad. Hard to believe this is all still 8-9 days out on the guidance lol. 

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Close to where Fiona hit last year as well...

Close, but Fiona was further east—center hit Cape Breton Island, was such a massive storm though I noted significant wind damage all the way into New Brunswick. 

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I hate troughs 

We need ‘em though. Not getting a big dog north without one. It just so happens that 95% of them are kickers when there’s something tangible nearby. 

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This thing looks like it's getting pummeled by shear.  Look at all the CB turrets moving from S-> N... and as that's gotten more momentous during the day ...this structural issues have come about. 

If that's true, not sure that was very well modeled. 

See?  The models are wrong about something .. .lol

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This thing looks like it's getting pummeled by shear.  Look at all the CB turrets moving from S-> N... and as that's gotten more momentous during the day ...this structural issues have come about. 

If that's true, not sure that was very well modeled. 

See?  The models are wrong about something .. .lol

That’s why Intensity forecasting is still an imperfect science. nHc had this going to 185 tonight. More likely 125. I still expect another round of RI Saturday night into Sunday before it’s rounds the bottom and turns north. At which time it will weaken again, but greatly expand. 

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Robust wave train pulsing past 41044 that is about 1,300 miles SE of the SNE.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41044&meas=spec&uom=E

Meanwhile, barely any motion at 40149, that buoy will be rocking tomorrow!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41049&meas=spec&uom=E

Forerunners unloading near 20 second period on Sunday for SNE, here we go!

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