LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t think it’s an ERC. I think it’s just the shear has undercut it some. It’s not a 5 anymore but certainly still a strong 4. Agreed, there is no secondary eyewall yet. I think one will occur over the weekend though. After which time lee has its best shot at peak intensity while north of PR before it eventually reaches the Franklin cold wake. After that point as it making the turn north it should really start to increase in size and may just barely be a major. The thing is for practical coastal implications a storm at 115mph with hurricane force winds extending 100 miles from the center will produce larger swells than lee yesterday at 165mph with hurricane force winds extending 20 miles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: The shift in medium range guidance there was one of the most extreme shifts I’ve ever seen for tropical. Tough when the ensemble suite stretches from Bermuda to central Newfoundland for the same forecast hour. The spread at range for Lee is less than climo per Tomer Burg's products. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 43 minutes ago, dryslot said: The 12z Euro from yesterday was used extensively on social medias to fuel the fire. And even that solution was a gale center into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Well that’s social media. I’m talking about this thread. I get that people are imby here so if it’s not a category four over your head it’s meh and boring, but this is worthy of tracking with expectations in check. To be clear—I’m not saying that folks should only talk about the hit possibilities. I appreciate the analysis about the continued less than “ideal” troughing from some, or the need to move past 70W, or there being too many moving pieces to feel confident in any additional westward shift, but that’s what I want to see. Analysis. you must be new here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: you must be new here. Apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 So what Hail Mary model are we holding on to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: So what Hail Mary model are we holding on to? The KMA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/6/2023 at 9:12 AM, SouthCoastMA said: Most likely path is still between Bermuda and Nantucket. No changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The KMA That's a good one right up there with the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Everyone thinks that the hot SST will automatically translate to a 400 mph hurricane lol. SST is an important driver but shear, ERCs, and proximity to land counts. Right now Lee seems to be regrouping but the peak may have been last night. Still a rough ride for the fish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Atlantic Canada is still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Maine is too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, hurricaneman said: Maine is too Yes stronger over the top blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another tease...exit stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherHappens said: Another tease...exit stage right. A 1020 high over WVA isn't going to cut it for impacts to most of the coast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, hurricaneman said: Maine is too Me thinks the west trend has begun 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Gfs is faster than euro . 12z Gfs tickles back west as it Doesn’t recurve at 38N more a 10* North heading into gulf of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Maybe Eastport will be a good spot to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: Maybe Eastport will be a good spot to go 9 hour drive to get the weak side of a storm ..I thought I had issues 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Maybe Eastport will be a good spot to go They have been congratulated many times over the years..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 9 hour drive to get the weak side of a storm ..I thought I had issues Move it west a 100 miles and we good to go there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 That would be nothing DE Maine hasn't seen before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Get a Bob 91 track and we can talk about it until then, Meh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Maybe the GEFS suck everyone back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Verbatim that would be some big winds for coastal Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Verbatim that would be some big winds for coastal Maine My power may flicker. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Maybe the GEFS suck everyone back in No! I won't be sucked back in....But what is it showing? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherHappens said: No! I won't be sucked back in....But what is it showing? lol Nothing yet. Too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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