FXWX Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: No changes https://x.com/eweather13/status/1700107309790249289?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg No changes is correct... it never had a decent shot at getting to the coast... chasing individual oddball ensemble members is not what I would call good trends continuing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, FXWX said: No changes is correct... it never had a decent shot at getting to the coast... chasing individual oddball ensemble members is not what I would call good trends continuing... All you can do, is lead them to water. Some choose to dehydrate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Love all the it’s 100% not coming . We’ll let it marinate 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/7/2023 at 9:27 AM, dryslot said: We tried to tell them. The explosive development was more intriguing then the potential for this to affect the EC, It just doesn't appear to get far enough west before it turns the corner, So much has to go right and very little needs to be wrong for this to be a fish storm for the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Love all the it’s 100% not coming . We’ll let it marinate Does that include the 100% of models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, FXWX said: No changes is correct... it never had a decent shot at getting to the coast... chasing individual oddball ensemble members is not what I would call good trends continuing... Let the wishcasting commence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, FXWX said: No changes is correct... it never had a decent shot at getting to the coast... chasing individual oddball ensemble members is not what I would call good trends continuing... You always get a few to jump on the outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lets not forget all the rain we had the last 3 mos to go with the HHH. More inches of rain in six weeks than inches of snow all winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: More inches of rain in six weeks than inches of snow all winter. Ha ha, Doubt it up here, We ended up doing ok last winter albeit late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Ha ha, Doubt it up here, We ended up doing ok last winter albeit late. My sister loved it. Basically after I moved her back into college they rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Also, what’s with this chasing outlier ensembles narrative? Kev’s been doing his hype thing, but even he was at like 30% odds when sober. Weenies will weenie but it’s no different than any other season. To my knowledge nobody has seriously said this is a high likelihood thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Love all the it’s 100% not coming . We’ll let it marinate Let it marinate and add plenty of seasoning...then let it sit and congeal so you can frame it to remember this. Its not coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Also, what’s with this chasing outlier ensembles narrative? Kev’s been doing his hype thing, but even he was at like 30% odds when sober. Weenies will weenie but it’s no different than any other season. To my knowledge nobody has seriously said this is a high likelihood thing. 3% odds gets the weenies going around here lol....myself included I'm just as guilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Looks like Lee is completing an ERC on sat imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Also, what’s with this chasing outlier ensembles narrative? Kev’s been doing his hype thing, but even he was at like 30% odds when sober. Weenies will weenie but it’s no different than any other season. To my knowledge nobody has seriously said this is a high likelihood thing. It's one thing to discuss all probabilities and potential outcomes on the board (even ones that may be outlandish) but some of what is going on around social media is ridiculous. There are just some things you don't mention or say publicly - but of course views, clicks, and follows are the most important thing in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: It's one thing to discuss all probabilities and potential outcomes on the board (even ones that may be outlandish) but some of what is going on around social media is ridiculous. There are just some things you don't mention or say publicly - but of course views, clicks, and follows are the most important thing in the world. The 12z Euro from yesterday was used extensively on social medias to fuel the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: The 12z Euro from yesterday was used extensively on social medias to fuel the fire. Social media - particularly the media outlets have pretty much married the Euro over the last decade. Not sure if it was Sandy or something else that drove it but media outlets drool over the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Social media - particularly the media outlets have pretty much married the Euro over the last decade. Not sure if it was Sandy or something else that drove it but media outlets drool over the Euro. Euro is not what it used to be. There is not a huge gap like it once had pre 2015. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Social media - particularly the media outlets have pretty much married the Euro over the last decade. Not sure if it was Sandy or something else that drove it but media outlets drool over the Euro. Euro use to nail storms a week out Not anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Social media - particularly the media outlets have pretty much married the Euro over the last decade. Not sure if it was Sandy or something else that drove it but media outlets drool over the Euro. As we have seen, It reels a lot of people in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Inside channel/ preview of expected 11 am track guidance ... 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's one thing to discuss all probabilities and potential outcomes on the board (even ones that may be outlandish) but some of what is going on around social media is ridiculous. There are just some things you don't mention or say publicly - but of course views, clicks, and follows are the most important thing in the world. Well that’s social media. I’m talking about this thread. I get that people are imby here so if it’s not a category four over your head it’s meh and boring, but this is worthy of tracking with expectations in check. To be clear—I’m not saying that folks should only talk about the hit possibilities. I appreciate the analysis about the continued less than “ideal” troughing from some, or the need to move past 70W, or there being too many moving pieces to feel confident in any additional westward shift, but that’s what I want to see. Analysis. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Well that’s social media. I’m talking about this thread. I get that people are imby here so if it’s not a category four over your head it’s meh and boring, but this is worthy of tracking with expectations in check. To be clear—I’m not saying that folks should only talk about the hit possibilities. I appreciate the analysis about the continued less than “ideal” troughing from some, or the need to move past 70W, or there being too many moving pieces to feel confident in any additional westward shift, but that’s what I want to see. Analysis. Absolutely agreed - the analysis is great. Sometimes the level of IMBY'ism and just the general "we have no shot" or it's going to hit" us posts can get too overwhelming (and not just in this case of tropical, but winter too. Even in the case of Lee, even if it has a 0.05% chance to hit us - the discussion and analysis is great because it's discussion and analysis what's drive learning and understanding. Now some people don't care about the learning and understanding - but ultimately that's what this place is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like Lee is completing an ERC on sat imagery. Peaked pressure up tp 942 winds down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro use to nail storms a week out Not anymore Lol Euro absolutely nailed Idalia 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Overnight stuff looks less favorable than it did yesterday to me for a US landfall. While you might think that some of the westward bends on the ensemble tracks are helpful, they also delay latitude gain as the northeast trough wants to pull out. Atlantic Canada is still very much in play, obviously. Probably <~5% now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 I don’t think it’s an ERC. I think it’s just the shear has undercut it some. It’s not a 5 anymore but certainly still a strong 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Overnight stuff looks less favorable than it did yesterday to me for a US landfall. While you might think that some of the westward bends on the ensemble tracks are helpful, they also delay latitude gain as the northeast trough wants to pull out. Atlantic Canada is still very much in play, obviously. Probably <~5% now. At this range I agree about Atlantic Canada, though plenty of time for shifts a la Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: At this range I agree about Atlantic Canada, though plenty of time for shifts a la Franklin. Yeah for sure. I was pretty convinced Franklin was coming, then it all changed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah for sure. I was pretty convinced Franklin was coming, then it all changed lol. The shift in medium range guidance there was one of the most extreme shifts I’ve ever seen for tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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