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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

TUTTs aren't always a bad thing. Remember Michael followed a TUTT into the Gulf

Yeah, the position and amplitude matter. We have some middling features out in the basin now but I think the highest potential comes late month if we can get a CAG in the western Caribbean. That’d bring something north off the SE coast or into the Gulf—if the activity doesn’t center in the EPAC. 

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19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You would need a cat 5 at the latitude of Cabo, that gets sling shot north north east at, at least 40knots to get anything resembling a real cane. It’s possible but extremely unlikely. Low end trop storm is generally about the strongest possible given the hundreds of miles of cool water along the Baja, which is often even colder than in socal itself. 

 

09E_intensity_latest.png

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Just now, dendrite said:

1858 happened...but we don't really know what the official winds were in that even though the estimate is like 70kt.

Biggest threat for sure is likely Hydro. That's gonna slam a lot of dry areas and especially the high terrain with a ton of moisture. You want to end the drought.....you got it brotha.

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21 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Biggest threat for sure is likely Hydro. That's gonna slam a lot of dry areas and especially the high terrain with a ton of moisture. You want to end the drought.....you got it brotha.

No doubt! An inch or more of rain there in a short period and it's like 20 inches of snow here as far as disruption, and ability to handle it

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

LR models hinting at another E Canada hit

90L is one of those worth watching long range. There’s a ton of chaos in the basin and I think we’re really going to need to wait until whatever crosses the Antilles back into the Atlantic to have a good sense of what’ll happen. Obviously always favor OTS yada yada.

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34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

90L is one of those worth watching long range. There’s a ton of chaos in the basin and I think we’re really going to need to wait until whatever crosses the Antilles back into the Atlantic to have a good sense of what’ll happen. Obviously always favor OTS yada yada.

Yeah I'm just hyping. lol  Hard to "favor" OTS when Canada has been a magnet in recent years (like '19? onward)

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