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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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There are some big time western members on the 0z GEFS. Legit one tries to skirt North Carolina. Can't call anything a trend yet with regards to MSLP position really, but you can sure see the ridge over far eastern Canada (around Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, etc) trending stronger on the GEFS each subsequent run. Will be interested to see the spaghetti tracks for the ensembles

Also to note, some of the more southwest ensemble members are there because of timing differences. There's a few members that get Lee essentially "stuck" in the northern Bahamas until the ridge moves out and it goes OTS. So a more W or SW member doesn't necessarily equate to a NE hit.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_33.thumb.png.1329bbb15175374ccc1cefc164f9d056.png

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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 17.8N  53.5W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 18.6N  55.1W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 19.6N  57.1W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 20.5N  58.8W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 21.2N  60.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 21.9N  61.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 22.4N  62.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 23.3N  65.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 24.4N  67.1W  120 KT 140 MPH

 

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs went towards the euro with less ridging on top.

Uggh 

Not sure why you'd be rooting for a cane hit, it's not like a snowstorm. 

It would be fun for like 2hrs and then you'd have to worry about your house floating away and having to dodge massive trees & power lines. 

Give me that massive swell action and I'm good. 

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