ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought it made LF at Cozumel as cat 5 160mph? Might have been weaker when it hit Yucatan or by the time it reached the more populated wets side of Cozumel....I know it was weakening pretty fast though regardless. If it had been holding more steady or intensifying, it would have been way worse than it was....and it was still really bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 It is a beautiful looking storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Might have been weaker when it hit Yucatan or by the time it reached the more populated wets side of Cozumel....I know it was weakening pretty fast though regardless. If it had been holding more steady or intensifying, it would have been way worse than it was....and it was still really bad. Yucatan, 925mb 130kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Good bye and Good luck on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Same with the Canadian. Not the pattern folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 12z GFS says NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS says NO. Of course it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good bye and Good luck on the GFS. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Same with the Canadian. Not the pattern folks. Lol it's 8 days out anything can change and will.. if in a few days it looks the same then sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Op runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: Lol it's 8 days out anything can change and will.. if in a few days it looks the same then sure Too much going on IMO. Trough that would pull it up gets kicked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Diggiebot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS says NO. It's over but we still track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 This is like trying to put another thread thru a thread then the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 It's possible future Margot will be the turd in the punchbowl for up at this latitude. Lee finds the weakness flees towards it. We'll see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Since when did we start making final forecasts off of day 8 op runs? I mean WTF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Since when did we start making final forecasts off of day 8 op runs? I mean WTF. Don't waste your time with this one. Let's look forward to 10 day out phantom blizzard of 78 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lol it's 8 days out anything can change and will.. if in a few days it looks the same then sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Op runs and all but two ensemble members? Yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherHappens said: Don't waste your time with this one. Let's look forward to 10 day out phantom blizzard of 78 lol. Far better shot of those coming to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea. The ensemble mean shows a similar thing. We'll wait to see what the euro says, but it's not the classic look IMO. That trough needs to dig and not lift out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherHappens said: Don't waste your time with this one. Let's look forward to 10 day out phantom blizzard of 78 lol. The gfs was abysmal on Idalia in FL.. and we all know it’s well documented east bias . With the EPS and GEFS all continuing west the last 4 days.. anyone claiming they know the end result is very foolish. All the players are on the field for this one. My advice.. don’t knee jerk off an op 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The gfs was abysmal on Idalia in FL.. and we all know it’s well documented east bias . With the EPS and GEFS all continuing west the last 4 days.. anyone claiming they know the end result is very foolish. All the players are on the field for this one. My advice.. don’t knee jerk off an op It's been schooling other tropicals in various basins. Bad take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The ensemble mean shows a similar thing. We'll wait to see what the euro says, but it's not the classic look IMO. That trough needs to dig and not lift out. I suggest people just enjoy the show that Lee is beginning to put on, independent of any IMBY "I have a dream" wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The gfs was abysmal on Idalia in FL.. and we all know it’s well documented east bias . With the EPS and GEFS all continuing west the last 4 days.. anyone claiming they know the end result is very foolish. All the players are on the field for this one. My advice.. don’t knee jerk off an op GFS was too far WEST with Idalia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's been schooling other tropicals in various basins. Bad take. Which did better on Idalia days 8-10 Euro or gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Boat trip to the Flemish cap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Gfs and it’s ensembles have been trending east since last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Gfs and it’s ensembles have been trending east since last night They have inched west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Which did better on Idalia days 8-10 Euro or gfs? Euro. So I guess a closer whiff?? Wheeeeeeee! In all seriousness, we have 2-3 days to nail this, but I'm not a fan of what I see. I feel like some are really working themselves up to disappointment. If it comes, you can bump the posts all you want and have a collective circle jerk with the posts. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro. So I guess a closer whiff?? Wheeeeeeee! In all seriousness, we have 2-3 days to nail this, but I'm not a fan of what I see. I feel like some are really working themselves up to disappointment. If it comes, you can bump the posts all you want and have a collective circle jerk with the posts. And even if it hits, it will be nothing we haven't seen several times over the course of the last decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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