2023 - tracking the tropics

[Typhoon Tip]

It's convection is wobbling around in a poorly organized state of fracturing CDO ...

BUT, given the larger picture and preview that's likely to resolve itself.

It may just be an artifact of cloud morphology? it kinda seems it has crossed from 12N to nearly 16N, while moving along about that same distance toward the west over the last 36 or so hours - just eyeballing satellite; don't freak out.  Using that non-verified aspect, the motion looks more NW to me.  Even if that's wrong, those of 'responsible and sympathetic morality' that still want this to skill-saw its way up the eastern seaboard ... you don't really want N motion this early.  

There's still not much deterministic confidence as to what this will do after passing the 70W,  'unofficial' uh-oh threshold.   I still want to see if the models are going to be right with the amount of N motion along the track between 96 and 144 hours. That 2-day span of ridge accuracy to the N of the Lee is important as to where the cyclone will be when it makes its connecting flight N.  If it's at the latitude of Tampa, versus Atlanta makes a difference.  Beyond that, there's still not a lot of admirable continuity wrt the region between ORD and SE Canada. 

The NAO is falling ...when has a D7+ ranged NAO been very precisely modeled?  It wouldn't take much for that descending index mode to send up just enough height response over NF from this range.   If the Euro type trough then plumbs a little more.... These are easy corrections to make.  If they don't.  They don't. If the do, we have a threat.

I wanna say... The +d(PNA) and the -d(NAO) have been timed wonderfully from the get go and still were very much so as of yesterday - coming from the American basis. 

 

[UnitedWx]

9 hours ago, Childude645 said:

Any one seeing similarities to Bob 91 Track?


.

Not at this point. Need to see what the trough is going to do

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even the couple that hit the cape would not be a big deal for the vast majority of us....a nor 'easter.

Wind field will be massive and will take longer to weaken.. it would be a good hit

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Wind field will be massive and will take longer to weaken.. it would be a good hit

Meh. That's if it takes on extra-tropical characteristics. Even Bob sucked inland. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Wind field will be massive and will take longer to weaken.. it would be a good hit

No, it would not. It would weaken quite quickly over the reduced TCHP under the churned waters from Idalia/Franklin and would approach at slower than climo rate of speed. Not to mention that windfield would become more lopsided favoring the eastern side of the circlulation.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it would not. It would weaken quite quickly over the reduced TCHP under the churned waters from Idalia/Franklin and would approach at slower than climo rate of speed. Not to mention that windfield would become more lopsided favoring the eastern side of the circlulation.

Yep. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Meh. That's if it takes on extra-tropical characteristics. Even Bob sucked inland. 

He also tried to hallucinate a threat to NE from Idalia's corpse into existence.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. That's if it takes on extra-tropical characteristics. Even Bob sucked inland. 

Exactly. Bob was a HUGE dud in my area. It was quite hyped, and then all we had was heavy showers. The wind here was almost non existatnt

[40/70 Benchmark]

There have been a series of fairly compelling threats to NE over the past few decades of tropical futility, but this is not one of them. Its a really lame situation with a very limited ceiling for impact.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He also tried to hallucinate a threat to NE from Idalia's corpse into existence.

He’s doing everything he can to get out of the FL vacay with the fam

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There have been a series of fairly compelling threats to NE over the past few decades of tropical futility, but this is not one of them. Its a really lame situation with a very limited ceiling for impact.

I think the Most at risk (highest impact area) currently is by far Bermuda . Not that it’s likely , but it could easily adjust 150 miles East at day 6-7 and it could hit them as a large cat 3 . I could see major surge in Nova Scotia or So but I think most damage on a SE Canada hit would be surge related 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He’s doing everything he can to get out of the FL vacay with the fam

I mean, I get it...September is a brutal month for weather and its all we have are the tropics, but you need to keep it real or else you only set yourself up for disappointment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think the Most at risk (highest impact area) currently is by far Bermuda . It could easily adjust 150 miles East at day 6-7 and it could hit them as a large cat 3 

Yes.

[dryslot]

We tried to tell them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Risk to Bermuda also greater due to reduced time for weakening over upwelled waters.

[CoastalWx]

Bermuda laughs at cat 3s though. That island is probably the best anywhere to deal with strong winds. 

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He’s doing everything he can to get out of the FL vacay with the fam

Either way I have fun lol thinking Lee misses but not by much if it shows a hit after recon gets in there then I'll be all in.. but tracking just gives me something to do that I enjoy.. eye popping out now

[ineedsnow]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would like to see that one GEFS member that plows it into FL pan out.

Honestly I rather have it hit Florida and be there for it

[ineedsnow]

Major by 5pm? LEE is in beast mode right now

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s a fair chance it gets far enough west and avoids the area of upwelling . Of course it would still be a strong cane at our latitude . If it’s rocketing along at 45-50 Mph it won’t have time to weaken before LF. Could easily be a 2 or 3

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a fair chance it gets far enough west and avoids the area of upwelling . Of course it would still be a strong cane at our latitude . If it’s rocketing along at 45-50 Mph it won’t have time to weaken before LF. Could easily be a 2 or 3

You really want this don't you.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You really want this don't you.

Still think about a 25-30% chance of LF somewhere in SNE

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You really want this don't you.

Everyone secretly wants it whether they will admit it or not is a different story....

[Typhoon Tip]

Sort of an esoteric interest here ... but, I'm curious about the 'create it's one environment' hypothesis with Lee.  Seems like a good candidate to test that.

Basically, if a hurricane is very intense and large, it starts to create an extended subsidence ring. This influences unto itself, stabilizing its surrounding it quasi protects itself.  The system benefits in a couple ways ( in theory) but for this concern... it would tip the motion of the hurricane more W. 

The way that works is, the ridge to the N is imparting a west --> steering flow.  But the beta motion of the hurricane is balanced against that; hence the 'WNW' cyclone motion. But if adding NVA from the subsidence ring to that ridge along the N arc of the total manifold, that introduces an additional west steering.   I'm wondering if some of the modeling is even picking up on this... These HAFS-A and HAFS-B guidance ( for ex) are ending up a little ( but perhaps crucially) S coordinates out around 120 hours comparing the Global runs that are not as powerful.  

These former models are bucking for MDR pressure records.  Right?  I'm 917 mb ...

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. That's if it takes on extra-tropical characteristics. Even Bob sucked inland. 

Not meh here.  During our 50 years in Maine, the only winds gusting to 60 (estimated by effects) came from the April 1982 blizzard at Fort Kent and Bob at Gardiner.  The latter also holds my greatest calendar-day RA with 6.41" and also set a new daily record at PWM with 8.1" (crushed by the oddball hybrid storm in Oct 1996, with 12.4").  Bob is also the only TC of memory that had backside NW winds as strong as frontside SE, toppling trees in opposite directions.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here's what's going to happen ( lol ) ...  We'll get this bad boy up to Cat 4.pubes distance of a Cat 5er at some point along the way.  It'll get a path feedback from that, that bumps it west in the guidance - suddenly, NHC is caboosing their statements with 'Persons along the EC should be carefully monitoring ...' etc, and officially, the dopamine hornet's nest is poked and the buzz on this and other social media will be elevated to a rage that is comparable to the power of the cyclone itself -

then, it starts ewr cycling, expanding in areal circumvallate - the core will thus be down to a strong Cat 3.  It turns the corner down there and starts the climo acceleration routine. Warnings are gong all the way to Mt Washington - but somewhere E of Jersey not 10 minutes before the L.I. transit it drops to Cat 2 heading for EEN, NH... the wind in the interior of SNE seldom exceeds 70 mph because the storm is by nature weakening rapidly and transitioning - lifting.

 ... There will be posters in here pissed off calling it weak sauce this and we got screwed.

Kind of the same phenom as winter, when you got 16" and everywhere else got 20. Bust

[Cyclone-68]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's what's going to happen ( lol ) ...  We'll get this bad boy up to Cat 4.pubes distance of a Cat 5er at some point along the way.  It'll get a path feedback from that, that bumps it west in the guidance - suddenly, NHC is caboosing their statements with 'Persons along the EC should be carefully monitoring ...' etc, and officially, the dopamine hornet's nest is poked and the buzz on this and other social media will be elevated to a rage that is comparable to the power of the cyclone itself -

then, it starts ewr cycling, expanding in areal circumvallate - the core will thus be down to a strong Cat 3.  It turns the corner down there and starts the climo acceleration routine. Warnings are gong all the way to Mt Washington - but somewhere E of Jersey not 10 minutes before the L.I. transit it drops to Cat 2 heading for EEN, NH... the wind in the interior of SNE seldom exceeds 70 mph because the storm is by nature weakening rapidly and transitioning - lifting.

 ... There will be posters in here pissed off calling it weak sauce this and we got screwed.

Kind of the same phenom as winter, when you got 16" and everywhere else got 20. Bust

Sounds like Hurricane Gloria again 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not meh here.  During our 50 years in Maine, the only winds gusting to 60 (estimated by effects) came from the April 1982 blizzard at Fort Kent and Bob at Gardiner.  The latter also holds my greatest calendar-day RA with 6.41" and also set a new daily record at PWM with 8.1" (crushed by the oddball hybrid storm in Oct 1996, with 12.4").  Bob is also the only TC of memory that had backside NW winds as strong as frontside SE, toppling trees in opposite directions.

I had the eye go overhead and felt disappointed compared to what was expected. Inland had 40-60. Still kind of meh given what many were expecting. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Wind field will be massive and will take longer to weaken.. it would be a good hit

Dr Knapp said the same yesterday. He also said that even if Lee misses the entire east coast that there will be a significant amount of beach erosion along the entire eastern seaboard. He is also concerned about Lee getting larger as it weakened some while moving north.

[Damage In Tolland]

We’re going to have a behemoth barreling perilously close up or off the coast this time next week . Deets TBD