2023 - tracking the tropics

[kdxken]

It would be nice if we could get a few more days of bickering out of this storm. Not ready to go back to boring.

[Diggiebot]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

10% chance at day 10 is a reach if you follow history in New England.

Which history? Pre 1960’s or post? I think we have been programmed to write off every threat because they keep missing. Just because almost everything minus bob and Gloria has missed over the last 60 years and we haven’t had a major has everyone dismissing any threat. We are 10+ days out with things far from determined. 

 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I didn't give it a 0% chance, But i will maintain a low bar, That then is where we differ, I may have different thoughts in 2-3 days from now, But overall modeled synoptic patterns are not a lock at this lead even in winter, Subtle changes will have big implications on TS outcomes up here and i will lean on the side off past history until proven otherwise on a LF major hurricane into New England.

Why do you maintain a low bar? Because of the history of storms not hitting here over the last 65 years? What about 1850-1960 when majors had a much shorter return range? How about Atlantic Canada getting multiple hurricanes in the last 20 years what is their return rate over the long term? 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1699584407793721501?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I bought wood to begin the boarding up process 

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Which history? Pre 1960’s or post? I think we have been programmed to write off every threat because they keep missing. Just because almost everything minus bob and Gloria has missed over the last 60 years and we haven’t had a major has everyone dismissing any threat. We are 10+ days out with things far from determined. 

 

Why do you maintain a low bar? Because of the history of storms not hitting here over the last 65 years? What about 1850-1960 when majors had a much shorter return range? How about Atlantic Canada getting multiple hurricanes in the last 20 years what is their return rate over the long term? 

I'm not talking about Atlantic Canada, They have had there share of tropical and post tropical systems, My money would be on them again for this one right now or the flemish cap, Very few on here was around pre 1960, The obvious answer is post, I'm strictly talking New England.

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I bought wood to begin the boarding up process 

supplies be quickly replenished when all trees are blown down

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm not talking about Atlantic Canada, They have had there share of tropical and post tropical systems, My money would be on them again for this one right now or the flemish cap, Very few on here was around pre 1960, The obvious answer is post, I'm strictly talking New England.

But reaching age 14 in 1960 does give me some perspective on what is possible….

[Rtd208]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm not talking about Atlantic Canada, They have had there share of tropical and post tropical systems, My money would be on them again for this one right now or the flemish cap, Very few on here was around pre 1960, The obvious answer is post, I'm strictly talking New England.

"Because that's where the fish are"-George Clooney

[Diggiebot]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm not talking about Atlantic Canada, They have had there share of tropical and post tropical systems, My money would be on them again for this one right now or the flemish cap, Very few on here was around pre 1960, The obvious answer is post, I'm strictly talking New England.

I just think that it’s pegged too low and that we are basing this on recent history. Not enough sample size. The pieces to a NE hurricane won’t fully reveal themselves until 2-5 before the hurricane passes us. The small pieces and timing are so crucial. 
 

instead of the endless regurgitation of the probability of hurricanes hitting NE is so low how about we actually analyze what is in front of us. 

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

I just think that it’s pegged too low and that we are basing this on recent history. Not enough sample size. The pieces to a NE hurricane won’t fully reveal themselves until 2-5 before the hurricane passes us. The small pieces and timing are so crucial. 
 

instead of the endless regurgitation of the probability of hurricanes hitting NE is so low how about we actually analyze what is in front of us. 

Have at it.

[WeatherHappens]

8 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

I just think that it’s pegged too low and that we are basing this on recent history. Not enough sample size. The pieces to a NE hurricane won’t fully reveal themselves until 2-5 before the hurricane passes us. The small pieces and timing are so crucial. 
 

instead of the endless regurgitation of the probability of hurricanes hitting NE is so low how about we actually analyze what is in front of us. 

Do you know how hard it is to get a hurricane up here and how things have to be just perfect?

[ineedsnow]

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Carol, 54 was a major. But the point remains the same. I really like an Eduardo 96 type track for this one. Close but no cigar. 

Officially For SNE, it wasn’t a major. It was a major for you on LI, but it was a cat 2 when it came into CT.  So technically it’s at 85 yrs for a major for SNE.  

[JC-CT]

Extrapolated NAM would be a huge hit

[Torch Tiger]

if we get just the right track and intensity, maybe we'll have power outages through Christmas?

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

Do you know how hard it is to get a hurricane up here and how things have to be just perfect?

I think he knows. We all know. But it does happen. And it will happen again.  And there are some big players that look to be evolving in the modeling. So I think that’s what most of us are talking about. Sure, there’s a much higher chance it misses us, but the chances are not zero, and they seem to be going up some of late. So we play along for a while, until it becomes definite it misses.  
 

I mean, San Diego got a Hurricane a couple weeks ago…Boring frieken San Diego..let that sink in for a minute. 

[rimetree]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Extrapolated NAM would be a huge hit

Yeah, I always forget about the ENAM...  

 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Extrapolated NAM would be a huge hit

Dgex!

[Diggiebot]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Have at it.

What storm in the last 20 years has looked statistically better at hitting NE than this? It’s still relatively low but I’ll take tracking this. The cards are there but we need a turn and a river to seal it. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

What storm in the last 20 years has looked statistically better at hitting NE than this? It’s still relatively low but I’ll take tracking this. The cards are there but we need a turn and a river to seal it. 

Bill

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Officially For SNE, it wasn’t a major. It was a major for you on LI, but it was a cat 2 when it came into CT.  So technically it’s at 85 yrs for a major for SNE.  

Nah 3 in RI

[Cyclone-68]

I miss the Bruce Schwoegler days on CH 4 when he would get excited about something like this. It was must see TV

[radarman]

41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean, San Diego got a Hurricane a couple weeks ago…Boring frieken San Diego..let that sink in for a minute. 

Not really.  Just got back and it was totally meh there.  I literally saw a guy show another guy the never forget tipped over lawn chair meme, which apparently was new to both of them.  

Decent gusts on mountain tops way inland and good rains in Palm Springs.

[WinterWolf]

36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nah 3 in RI

Made landfall on Long Island and then in CT.  Some info I looked up said cat 3 on landfall in LI.  Some other info said cat 2 on landfall.  NHC said cat 3 on first landfall in LI, but then it made another landfall in Groton, CT.  Whether it was a cat 3 at that point I don’t know…? But whatever..it’s close I guess. 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, radarman said:

Not really.  Just got back and it was totally meh there.  I literally saw a guy show another guy the never forget tipped over lawn chair meme, which apparently was new to both of them.  

Decent gusts on mountain tops way inland and good rains in Palm Springs.

Of course it was meh….that place only gets sunny, breezy and 75 everyday, so when a minimal Tropical system hits there, that’s like a Cat 3 for that boring weather place. Point is…it happened. 

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course it was meh….that place only gets sunny, breezy and 75 everyday, so when a minimal Tropical system hits there, that’s like a Cat 3 for that boring weather place. Point is…it happened. 

The big thing was the rain-some places got several months worth.   The truth is any one spot had a low likelihood even in Florida.  

[WxWatcher007]

Look at the nuke over in the EPAC. 80kt of RI in 24 hours. Now that’s perfection.

[Childude645]

Any one seeing similarities to Bob 91 Track?


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[Childude645]

Any one seeing similarities to Bob 91 Track?


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https://www.weather.gov/mhx/HurricaneBob1991EventReview


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[bristolri_wx]

Can't get to excited until it gets to 75 West.  Almost everything that hits us has to get that far west or it recurves... a lot more variation in latitude than longitude...