Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, FXWX said: Define invested... 20% of a direct hit at day 9. Not leaning toward a miss . Said cannot go higher than 20% hit at this distance . And he generally Poo poos everything in winter and tropics . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s no way you or anyone else knows how the pattern and storm track are going to evolve 9 days out. Right now anything is equally possible . And that is fact. No option is favored yes, a direct impact can’t be ruled out. no way to do that at this range however, based on the pattern that is now being modeled, a direct impact looks unlikely at best. that can change, but that seems to be the deal right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, a direct impact can’t be ruled out. no way to do that at this range however, based on the pattern that is now being modeled, a direct impact looks unlikely at best. that can change, but that seems to be the deal right now It’s not a non-zero threat, but I agree. The Synoptics though are there on a high level, but too much other stuff to figure out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Yesterday I was at 65% OTS/20% Atlantic Canada threat/15% New England threat. I think the trend on the ensembles today increase the risk slightly, but this new wrinkle with 96L just makes forecasting all the more difficult. This evening I’m at: 60% OTS 20% Atlantic Canada threat 20% New England threat 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lots of saggage to Lee’s boob on the southwest flank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Someone alert the tuna SE of George’s Bank 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 The chances of a NE landfall are slowly decreasing. Color me shocked. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Maybe this will be one of those times where the D9 operational GFS is within 50 miles of pin point precision all the way up. Never seen such continuity at this range, from any model for that matter, when handling a tropical entity that’s crossing into the domain of the westerlies. In fact … we’ve seen an ambrosia of different timing and spacing of features modeled between ORD and NF over the last couple of days; yet despite all those variations the TC itself still runs along that same rail service. Pretty remarkably fixated and uninfluenced by any of it … For that matter, maybe we’ve crossed into the era of D10, 90% accuracy .., ‘magine that. One model run then no need to run a forum. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: The chances of a NE landfall are slowly decreasing. Color me shocked. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 20% of a direct hit at day 9. Not leaning toward a miss . Said cannot go higher than 20% hit at this distance . And he generally Poo poos everything in winter and tropics . Ok... that at least gives us some goal posts to sense his thinking... And I would agree with 20% at this stage but that would be on the low side of me using the word "invested" but I do understand everyone has their own comfort level. Thanks for clarification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Wow Would take it up or east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No Fine, don't color me shocked lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Hundreds of miles offshore. sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1699569808474562735?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, FXWX said: Ok... that at least gives us some goal posts to sense his thinking... And I would agree with 20% at this stage but that would be on the low side of me using the word "invested" but I do understand everyone has their own comfort level. Thanks for clarification... I think even at 20%, while that’s low in an absolute sense, it’s probably pretty high relative to climatological odds on a any given September 6. I’m with you in the sense I don’t have a real investment in this yet—I post because I love tropical analysis—but I’m not staying up for the euro or anything like that. When I start getting less sleep and planning chase target locations, then it’s real to me lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1699569808474562735?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg I was thinking that when I saw Jova explode today.. I wonder if it will influence Lees path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 10% chance at day 10 is a reach if you follow history in New England. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: I was thinking that when I saw Jova explode today.. I wonder if it will influence Lees path All the pieces are on the chess board. We just have to maneuver them correctly . This is legit . It’s rare set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg oh wow, didn't see that. Pretty much agree, but still not too interested yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: an ambrosia of different timing Ha, who doesn't love ambrosia salad? And fruitcake for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yesterday I was at 65% OTS/20% Atlantic Canada threat/15% New England threat. I think the trend on the ensembles today increase the risk slightly, but this new wrinkle with 96L just makes forecasting all the more difficult. This evening I’m at: 60% OTS 20% Atlantic Canada threat 20% New England threat You will be on South Florida last week of Sept. Will be the bigger story on a smaller but just as intense storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 10% chance at day 10 is a reach if you follow history in New England. I don’t think this is a 5-10% chance looking at the broader synoptic landscape as currently forecast. Franklin would have fit into that range, and on the lower side IMO. The presence of an Atlantic ridge and potential for a deeper/less progressive ridge here are important pieces in my mind, even if their amplitude and orientation are uncertain at this range and could eventually guarantee OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You will be on South Florida last week of Sept. Will be the bigger story on a smaller but just as intense storm Basin is rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t think this is a 5-10% chance looking at the broader synoptic landscape as currently forecast. Franklin would have fit into that range, and on the lower side IMO. The presence of an Atlantic ridge and potential for a deeper/less progressive ridge here are important pieces in my mind, even if their amplitude and orientation are uncertain at this range and could eventually guarantee OTS. I didn't give it a 0% chance, But i will maintain a low bar, That then is where we differ, I may have different thoughts in 2-3 days from now, But overall modeled synoptic patterns are not a lock at this lead even in winter, Subtle changes will have big implications on TS outcomes up here and i will lean on the side off past history until proven otherwise on a LF major hurricane into New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I didn't give it a 0% chance, But i will maintain a low bar, That then is where we differ, I may have different thoughts in 2-3 days from now, But overall modeled synoptic patterns are not a lock at this lead even in winter, Subtle changes will have big implications on TS outcomes up here and i will lean on the side off past history until proven otherwise on a LF major hurricane into New England. "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" Stole it from FINRA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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