2023 - tracking the tropics

[WeatherHappens]

4 minutes ago, tunafish said:

-Watches clips of a few looting incidents online, none of which are happening within 100 miles.  Extrapolates to "all our neighborhoods".

-Most definitely goes to bed with all exterior lights, and several interior lights, on for "safety"

EDIT:   I see OT posts are being deleted, so I'll save you the trouble and delete this in a minute.

Someone should start a Banter thread.

[tunafish]

5 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

Someone should start a Banter thread.

 

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

Someone should start a Banter thread.

No looting in here so far!

 

[WeatherHappens]

[Damage In Tolland]

Each run farther west . Things you love to see 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Each run farther west . Things you love to see 

00z was better. But means nothing really.

[WinterWolf]

Lots of moving on parts…lots to figure out. Some big players look to be there, but can they come together enough…

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You could play that game with every system though.

This is no different than why it’s really hard to get a massive winter storm up here generally. A shitstreak appears out of nowhere to screw it up.

A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

[WeatherHappens]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

Bob was a pretty big hit for RI.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

Carol, 54 was a major. But the point remains the same. I really like an Eduardo 96 type track for this one. Close but no cigar. 

[WeatherHappens]

Officially Hurricane Lee.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Most likely path is still between Bermuda and Nantucket. Doesn't mean things couldn't improve. 

Still a long ways out

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of spread on EPS. Still OTS for many it seems. This is the non-SkyNet ensemble.   

I disagree with the assertion of this being a test of technology for an event still beyond 7 days from now... especially 10.

[Typhoon Tip]

57 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

51 members and 0 west of Boston. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

51 members and 0 west of Boston. 

The mean continues shifting west on both EPS and GEFS 

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I disagree with the assertion of this being a test of technology for an event still beyond 7 days from now... especially 10.

I agree too.

[kdxken]

Stein with a fish

"Powerful hurricane forecast to be east of the Carolinas next weekend from there it should turn north-northeast not bothering the United States. Could be some good surfing however. Still need to watch how the atmosphere unfolds for any changes. #Lee

 

https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/1699543002249564435?s=20

[Damage In Tolland]

We question and call bluff

https://x.com/tollandkev/status/1699548004951236820?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

Maybe that was the wrong way to word it. My point mainly was, it’s hard to get a tropical system up here because a lot needs to go right. It just doesn’t line up often. All it takes is one thing and she gone.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m sure this will end up anywhere but here. Probably twisting 1000 miles se of Nantucket.

 

1 hour ago, WeatherHappens said:

 

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Still a long ways out

 

[CoastalWx]

Buy whiff and sell hit until further notice.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Buy whiff and sell hit until further notice.

saying there's a chance at a legit landfall at this range is like saying there's a shot at a day 10 KU with a +AO and a SE ridge

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

saying there's a chance at a legit landfall at this range is like saying there's a shot at a day 10 KU with a +AO and a SE ridge

In the winter you’d have 14 animations showing a hit . And then it would miss . This is fascinating 

[WeatherHappens]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In the winter you’d have 14 animations showing a hit . And then it would miss . This is fascinating 

Your second Cat4 hurricane breaks down the ridging and allows Lee to exit stage right.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In the winter you’d have 14 animations showing a hit . And then it would miss . This is fascinating 

if talking how about a winter pattern evolves and honking about a hurricane that likely misses 200 miles offshore are the same, I do not know what to tell you

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if talking how about a winter pattern evolves and honking about a hurricane that likely misses 200 miles offshore are the same, I do not know what to tell you

There’s no way you or anyone else knows how the pattern and storm track are going to evolve 9 days out. Right now anything is equally possible . And that is fact. No option is favored 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no way you or anyone else knows how the pattern and storm track are going to evolve 9 days out. Right now anything is equally possible . And that is fact. No option is favored 

Don’t do it…….

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t do it…….

I am on team Shabbs. The fact he is invested is VERY telling 

[FXWX]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am on team Shabbs. The fact he is invested is VERY telling 

Define invested...

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Define invested...

Leaning towards a miss. Lol.