2023 - tracking the tropics

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm warning my co workers about this storm.

Are they on Cape Cod or Novia Scotia?

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

saw it somewhere but a repeat of 1938 today would lead to some areas not having power for 6 months...

And some wonder why some of us are so harsh on the media! Some organization really said that... or just some HACK on X??

[Hoth]

45 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Not to make light of our CT friends but the resulting power outages would probably last until the next hurricane 

I’m still waiting for UI to get the power back from Isaias, so Lee doesn’t concern me. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

And some wonder why some of us are so harsh on the media! Some organization really said that... or just some HACK on X??

I can't remember the source but they ran some sort of computer simulation based on population, infrastructure etc...it was fairly interesting even if it wasn't exactly scientific.

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm warning my co workers about this storm.

hell forget the storm, warn them about the band of looters coming down from Tolland!!

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm warning my co workers about this storm.

Are you the Frankie McD of the NYPD?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As the tweet suggests, while there’s significant uncertainty over the strength and orientation of an E CONUS trough, there is a strong cross guidance signal of a more amplified ridge over the maritimes.

That’s a big deal IMO, because while that’s probably not enough by itself to cause land impacts (Bermuda aside), the impact of that ridge amplification probably blocks a quick escape and limits the odds a truly progressive trough develops. It also increases the odds that this bends more NW/NNW after the initial turn north.

 

[brooklynwx99]

Comparing a pre-loading composite of all recent EC landfalls to the current pattern, I think that the risk for a landfall is unlikely outside of Nova Scotia. Looking at the pattern from a week out until landfall, we see an amplified trough digging into the Plains that leads to a strong blocking high forming just NE of Maine. This is not the case here.

There is a weak, progressive trough that moves into the OH Valley that doesn't serve to establish a blocking high at all. In fact, the strongest positive anomalies are north of the Great Lakes. The rather zonal flow over Nova Scotia is probably why this storm is going to escape east... without that strong blocking high the landfall scenario looks unlikely without a large change in the pattern. Even a capture scenario would be possible if the trough dug more, but the pattern just doesn't look amplified enough.

[WxWatcher007]

I think it’s a little more legit today than it was yesterday, but there’s an eternity to go.

[FXWX]

11 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

And some wonder why some of us are so harsh on the media! Some organization really said that... or just some HACK on X??

Wouldn't jump on media with this... JB has a big following and post an image of 1938 once every hurricane season... even yesterday there were posts everywhere showing the Korean model redux of 38 prediction.  If folks are going to share and posts those outlandish maps, the media is going to run with them...

[brooklynwx99]

The EPS is more what you'd want to see for an EC landfall with higher positive anomalies over SE Canada and a bit more digging with the trough over the E US, but even then it's far from ideal

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The EPS is more what you'd want to see for an EC landfall with higher positive anomalies over SE Canada and a bit more digging with the trough over the E US, but even then it's far from ideal

You really need a sharp trough in the GL/OV and stout ridge in the maritimes. These positively tilted troughs won't do it.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The EPS is more what you'd want to see for an EC landfall with higher positive anomalies over SE Canada and a bit more digging with the trough over the E US, but even then it's far from ideal

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You really need a sharp trough in the GL/OV and stout ridge in the maritimes. These positively tilted troughs won't do it.

Yup

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, WeatherHappens said:

My crystal ball begs to differ.

Mine says your crystal ball needs some calibration service performed.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Doesn’t a stronger storm help flex the ridge which in turn should buckle the trough west and sharper? There seems a direct correlation. Whereas a cat 1 would be much less likely to do that 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Doesn’t a stronger storm help flex the ridge which in turn should buckle the trough west and sharper? There seems a direct correlation. Whereas a cat 1 would be much less likely to do that 

Models take that into account.

[ineedsnow]

GFS looks better

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Models take that into account.

Which is why we’ve seen the continued west trend each set of ensemble runs . Stronger riding and trough backing west. Tit for tat. Still a bit of work and bumping.. but 9 days out much can happen 

[WeatherHappens]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Mine says your crystal ball needs some calibration service performed.

 

Actually they seem to be in agreement. Outlook Not So Good for a New England landfall.

[CoastalWx]

GFS will whiff.

[CoastalWx]

Little s/w moving into Quebec porks us.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Little s/w moving into Quebec porks us.

Plenty of time to go

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Little s/w moving into Quebec porks us.

That’s why I’m just focused on the broader steering pattern trends. Every op run is going to be different at this range. 

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Little s/w moving into Quebec porks us.

Hopefully a little s/w isn’t all that is preventing us from seeing large impacts. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Plenty of time to go

Too much stuff going on for my liking. I feel like people always forget how hard it is to get a legit cane into SNE.

[ineedsnow]

Massive storm

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Plenty of time to go

Very close

[Typhoon Tip]

I would not trust these deterministic guidance ideas east of 100 W across N/A ...beyond D7...

LOL, that's what porked us - not anything actually on the chart.      Know what you mean tho.  Just thought that was funny.

[CoastalWx]

If that piece lifted out, we'd probably cane. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Too much stuff going on for my liking. I feel like people always forget how hard it is to get a legit cane into SNE.

Expectations through the roof and out of whack. That little s/w is the perfect illustration of why this is still a low probability deal despite the general trend. The smallest thing can force this east, especially given how soon it’s expected to turn N. If this got buried in the central/NW Bahamas there’d be more wiggle room.