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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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9 hours ago, FXWX said:

I should know better than to reply, but you force me... lol...  No where does he indicate a hit... all he says it will pass by out "LATITUDE" before the we can exchange air masses!  going by at 40/60 or 40/65 does not do anything except monster surf...  You are the king of teases Kev, and you know it... lol

I would say it’s just me being me. It’s quite straightforward. I live for extreme wx 

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Atlantic basin is becoming busier

EL Nino ? LOL

If we didn’t have absurd SSTs and OHC across the basin this would be a slam dunk BN season IMO.

7 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Love the Cat4/5 followup on the GFS sitting in the pocket. Good times ahead. The best of times.

Fiona last year, then the Franklin threat, remnants of Idalia, and now this and the follow up :lol: .

Heater out your way. 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If we didn’t have absurd SSTs and OHC across the basin this would be a slam dunk BN season IMO.

Fiona last year, then the Franklin threat, remnants of Idalia, and now this and the follow up :lol: .

Heater out your way. 

LOL Yeah we've been on the heater since Dorian. Can't buy a white Christmas but no issues getting strong canes up here.

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Atlantic basin is becoming busier

EL Nino ? LOL

It's complex but this warm ENSO phase came on buried inside a hemisphere already steeped in summer season ... That means it is not reaching outside --> not forcing ... or less therein. 

El Ninos that "start" in mid summer" are differently correlated to those that get going earlier. So, lagged effects on the circulation overall are already in place..  

That's the typology.  The MJO folk over at CPC are stating that the hemisphere is 'increasingly' more El Nino, which means it is in process of coupling .. Coupling better as the season progresses is the natural assumption. 

(Coupling in this context means that the oceanic-atmospheric thermodynamics are identifiably linked by historical inference on the R-wave spatial orientation ... which is grad level dialogue :arrowhead:.  You can have times (transiently) when a warm(cool) ENSO underlies an atmosphere that takes on a circulation mode that is uncorrelated.   ...etc. )

Anyway, because the warm ENSO's maturing is taking place while buried , it is thus not as well coupled as it may become later in the season. These current peregrinations of tropics are not being effected yet. Which ... just looking at the behavior of shearing and circulation tendencies below ~ 30 N, it is pretty clear that El Nino is not disrupting the Atlantic Basin as of yet  - there's lags going on. 

 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Glad you’re a fortune teller.  You can’t possibly say that with any confidence at this stage….that’s a guess at this point. 

This looks more and more legit, especially with the ensembles hinting at a more amplified pattern. I still think this is NE, Atlantic Canada, or OTS. 

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4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..if a Cat 3 or 4 hit SNE I'd give it to 2 days after the storm before you'd be complaining about how long it is taking for things to return to normal...

It would be devastating….but I wouldn’t be worried at all about a cat 4.  And a Cat 3 is almost a unicorn up here too(except 38 and the ones from the colonial period).  But a strong cat 1 or 2 certainly isn’t impossible, and that would be a big hit with our heavily treed and populated area.  
 

But I’ll roll the dice with this one, and hope we break the hurricane Drought. 

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19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..if a Cat 3 or 4 hit SNE I'd give it to 2 days after the storm before you'd be complaining about how long it is taking for things to return to normal...

Not to make light of our CT friends but the resulting power outages would probably last until the next hurricane 

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36 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..if a Cat 3 or 4 hit SNE I'd give it to 2 days after the storm before you'd be complaining about how long it is taking for things to return to normal...

Not a chance. That would be a bucket list for me. You didn’t see me complaining one iota in the Oct 11 snowstorm when we had no power for 8 days .. or Irene for 4 days or Isaias for 3 days. We like and welcome it with open arms and hands. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not a chance. That would be a bucket list for me. You didn’t see me complaining one iota in the Oct 11 snowstorm when we had no power for 8 days .. or Irene for 4 days or Isaias for 3 days. We like and welcome it with open arms and hands. 

Same guy that complains about it not being cold enough?

Same guy who complains about the snowfall forecast busting low?

...but it ain't going to be just a lack of power that you and others will be dealing with. That may be the least of your concerns...

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not a chance. That would be a bucket list for me. You didn’t see me complaining one iota in the Oct 11 snowstorm when we had no power for 8 days .. or Irene for 4 days or Isaias for 3 days. We like and welcome it with open arms and hands. 

You were pooping pants in 2011 when they were looting your neighborhood.

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