MJO812 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Atlantic basin is becoming busier EL Nino ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Love the Cat4/5 followup on the GFS sitting in the pocket. Good times ahead. The best of times. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Some of the analogy on the direction reminds me when we have a potential blizzard in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Some of the analogy on the direction reminds me when we have a potential blizzard in the winter. Day 11 blizzard over 40/70. They always verify. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 9 hours ago, FXWX said: I should know better than to reply, but you force me... lol... No where does he indicate a hit... all he says it will pass by out "LATITUDE" before the we can exchange air masses! going by at 40/60 or 40/65 does not do anything except monster surf... You are the king of teases Kev, and you know it... lol I would say it’s just me being me. It’s quite straightforward. I live for extreme wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Atlantic basin is becoming busier EL Nino ? LOL If we didn’t have absurd SSTs and OHC across the basin this would be a slam dunk BN season IMO. 7 minutes ago, Hazey said: Love the Cat4/5 followup on the GFS sitting in the pocket. Good times ahead. The best of times. Fiona last year, then the Franklin threat, remnants of Idalia, and now this and the follow up . Heater out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If we didn’t have absurd SSTs and OHC across the basin this would be a slam dunk BN season IMO. Fiona last year, then the Franklin threat, remnants of Idalia, and now this and the follow up . Heater out your way. LOL Yeah we've been on the heater since Dorian. Can't buy a white Christmas but no issues getting strong canes up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I would say it’s just me being me. It’s quite straightforward. I live for extreme wx I know you do... just having a bit of fun.. and one day you will be rewarded... who knows, maybe this is the one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Whatever does/doesn’t happen the end of next week it looks like heavy rain and flooding in spots before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Fishy, fishy, fishy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Most likely path is still between Bermuda and Nantucket. Doesn't mean things couldn't improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 1 hour ago, FXWX said: I know you do... just having a bit of fun.. and one day you will be rewarded... who knows, maybe this is the one... Let’s do this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1699406325825118435?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 All kidding aside, this is either going into the Carolinas or Nova Scottia. The Hurricane drought goes on for another year. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Atlantic basin is becoming busier EL Nino ? LOL It's complex but this warm ENSO phase came on buried inside a hemisphere already steeped in summer season ... That means it is not reaching outside --> not forcing ... or less therein. El Ninos that "start" in mid summer" are differently correlated to those that get going earlier. So, lagged effects on the circulation overall are already in place.. That's the typology. The MJO folk over at CPC are stating that the hemisphere is 'increasingly' more El Nino, which means it is in process of coupling .. Coupling better as the season progresses is the natural assumption. (Coupling in this context means that the oceanic-atmospheric thermodynamics are identifiably linked by historical inference on the R-wave spatial orientation ... which is grad level dialogue . You can have times (transiently) when a warm(cool) ENSO underlies an atmosphere that takes on a circulation mode that is uncorrelated. ...etc. ) Anyway, because the warm ENSO's maturing is taking place while buried , it is thus not as well coupled as it may become later in the season. These current peregrinations of tropics are not being effected yet. Which ... just looking at the behavior of shearing and circulation tendencies below ~ 30 N, it is pretty clear that El Nino is not disrupting the Atlantic Basin as of yet - there's lags going on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 22 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: All kidding aside, this is either going into the Carolinas or Nova Scottia. The Hurricane drought goes on for another year. Glad you’re a fortune teller. You can’t possibly say that with any confidence at this stage….that’s a guess at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Glad you’re a fortune teller. You can’t possibly say that with any confidence at this stage….that’s a guess at this point. My crystal ball begs to differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Glad you’re a fortune teller. You can’t possibly say that with any confidence at this stage….that’s a guess at this point. This looks more and more legit, especially with the ensembles hinting at a more amplified pattern. I still think this is NE, Atlantic Canada, or OTS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Seiche in the Bay of Fundy? would love to be at Five Islands Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s do this! ..if a Cat 3 or 4 hit SNE I'd give it to 2 days after the storm before you'd be complaining about how long it is taking for things to return to normal... 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..if a Cat 3 or 4 hit SNE I'd give it to 2 days after the storm before you'd be complaining about how long it is taking for things to return to normal... It would be devastating….but I wouldn’t be worried at all about a cat 4. And a Cat 3 is almost a unicorn up here too(except 38 and the ones from the colonial period). But a strong cat 1 or 2 certainly isn’t impossible, and that would be a big hit with our heavily treed and populated area. But I’ll roll the dice with this one, and hope we break the hurricane Drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..if a Cat 3 or 4 hit SNE I'd give it to 2 days after the storm before you'd be complaining about how long it is taking for things to return to normal... Not to make light of our CT friends but the resulting power outages would probably last until the next hurricane 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Not to make light of our CT friends but the resulting power outages would probably last until the next hurricane Same goes for NH....it is why many homes in NH have a Generac or a gas-powered generator or 2. Not having one is a prescription for disaster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 36 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..if a Cat 3 or 4 hit SNE I'd give it to 2 days after the storm before you'd be complaining about how long it is taking for things to return to normal... Not a chance. That would be a bucket list for me. You didn’t see me complaining one iota in the Oct 11 snowstorm when we had no power for 8 days .. or Irene for 4 days or Isaias for 3 days. We like and welcome it with open arms and hands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not a chance. That would be a bucket list for me. You didn’t see me complaining one iota in the Oct 11 snowstorm when we had no power for 8 days .. or Irene for 4 days or Isaias for 3 days. We like and welcome it with open arms and hands. Same guy that complains about it not being cold enough? Same guy who complains about the snowfall forecast busting low? ...but it ain't going to be just a lack of power that you and others will be dealing with. That may be the least of your concerns... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not a chance. That would be a bucket list for me. You didn’t see me complaining one iota in the Oct 11 snowstorm when we had no power for 8 days .. or Irene for 4 days or Isaias for 3 days. We like and welcome it with open arms and hands. You were pooping pants in 2011 when they were looting your neighborhood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You were pooping pants in 2011 when they were looting your neighborhood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 37 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Not to make light of our CT friends but the resulting power outages would probably last until the next hurricane saw it somewhere but a repeat of 1938 today would lead to some areas not having power for 6 months... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: saw it somewhere but a repeat of 1938 today would lead to some areas not having power for 6 months... Society halted for a ‘38 redux…let’s give it a whirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 I'm warning my co workers about this storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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