Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 I'm seeing a classic super synoptic scenario unfolding myself and have for days to be brutally honest. One can't really use that as a deterministic guidance metric; the models have to emerge the features. But the correction vectors and 'emergence probabilities' will haunt the models in time, and in time should bring this toward an east coastal risk. These model 'hints' and starts are not just noise. Stopping short of "threat" ... but at some point I don't have a problem and most who know me know that I don't give a f what others think - I call these things things when I call them. I'd watch this thing closely if I lived from the Carolinas to Atlantic Canada with equal plausibility - for now. If I have to knock it down, I'll knock it down. Okay 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 By the way... 'super synoptic' is just a phrase I use to mean the non-linear distribution of forcing, often referred to 2ndary..or constructive interference. The pieces are not necessarily 'up stream' in that sense, as the mechanics create a new arena that exists as a result - in which events become favored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Everything has a shot... even Wiz has a shot at dating Taylor Swift... sorry Wiz but the best I could come up with quickly...Miley?Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 This run of the GFS seems west of the 12 run, this run may be a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Recurve hostile environment up here. That looks not like a recurve pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Recurve hostile environment up here. Congrats England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Yep. Enjoy the cirrus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 I think it will recurve into the Bahamas. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. Enjoy the cirrus. hopefully it annihilates Canada! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 even more 18z GEFS members moving west towards the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That looks not like a recurve pattern you want that streak back towards lakes/ontario/quebec lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: even more 18z GEFS members moving west towards the Bahamas Lol…when the OP was showing it getting close, its Ensemble's were going east. Now the OP completely misses(18z), and Ensemble’s are coming west. The fact the ensembles are shifting west is the bigger deal anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: hopefully it annihilates Canada! We’d be saying…OHHHHH Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 All runs are entertainment at this range. We’ll start taking them more seriously when this thing is north of USVI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 those n atl anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 This is going to better than tracking any winter storm as both ensembles continue to move it west and then north into SNE . What a fun wild ride ahead 1 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Look for the orientation of the Ridge, Trough, timing strength. ATT that's all you need to concentrate on. It's going to change. Bigger question is does Lee strengthen to Wilma catagory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Waxing up the boggie board . The wall at Hampton today was crankin a nearly overhead swell . Too big for Body surfing as it smashed into 2 feet of water on a sand bar on its second break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is going to better than tracking any winter storm as both ensembles continue to move it west and then north into SNE . What a fun wild ride ahead Beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is going to better than tracking any winter storm as both ensembles continue to move it west and then north into SNE . What a fun wild ride ahead Ya, I don’t know about that? A big winter storm/blizzard possibility is pretty exciting, and has much better odds than a major Cane for SNE. But, if this trends to something significant for us, then it will become very interesting, and potentially exciting if that indeed begins to unfold. But as of now I don’t feel that way. Pump the brakes currently…long way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Waxing up the boggie board . The wall at Hampton today was crankin a nearly overhead swell . Too big for Body surfing as it smashed into 2 feet of water on a sand bar on its second break I'm working in Hampton and North Hampton tomorrow, hope to see some good surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beer? Yes but I know from our Text group with Shabbs you are invested. You can play different here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes but I know from our Text group with Shabbs you are invested. You can play different here I never said anything. Lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 34 minutes ago, 512high said: I'm working in Hampton and North Hampton tomorrow, hope to see some good surf If you can go by the “wall” in am that’s your best shot . It’s gonna fade as the storm is weakning and moving out of the swell window n . (X idalia) the jeffreys ledge bouy should be dropping by morning (Ndbc bouy 44098). It’s been 4 days of swell so far , that’s a long one for the area At 3pm there was some splash over the sea wall by the corner near downtown Hampton beaches. Next week by Tuesday *very large *swells are coming and Some will be surprised 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, I don’t know about that? A big winter storm/blizzard possibility is pretty exciting, and has much better odds than a major Cane for SNE. But, if this trends to something significant for us, then it will become very interesting, and potentially exciting if that indeed begins to unfold. But as of now I don’t feel that way. Pump the brakes currently…long way to go. There is something special about tracking a cane. I think the most sleep deprived I've ever been was the week leading up to Sandy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is going to better than tracking any winter storm as both ensembles continue to move it west and then north into SNE . What a fun wild ride ahead 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beer? A lot of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Probably should wait to see what the KissMyAss model has @0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 By Day 9 it's at Bermudas latitude. Hype machine is out. I can't imagine modeling trough placement accurately enough at 216 hours is any easier in the summer than it is in winter. I don't know, maybe it's something to watch but get it inside day 4 or 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, Hoth said: There is something special about tracking a cane. I think the most sleep deprived I've ever been was the week leading up to Sandy. I get it…but for me any big weather event that has a shot at giving us a big whack is exciting to me. A monster winter storm that’s heading for the area is tough to beat for me. If this turns into a bonafide and legit threat, I’ll feel the same way as when a blizzard is on the horizon for us. But that’s just me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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