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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hmmm... a hint of similarity, but with some significant differences... both had a more of an approaching trough with some capture / tug impacts...   Again, not saying it wouldn't be close or interesting, but need to see some trough support...

Here are the 500 mb maps for Edna followed by Carol at approach to Carolina coast....

image.png.5341ec3be47658d59006f22c461fdd1b.png

 

image.png.0e9e8e1741ddbe4a965a1b1b018d9e4d.png

Love these, thanks for sharing.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still don't like the disjointed trough. Need that thing really sharp from GL down to Gulf.

100%. The euro run verbatim doesn’t get it done D10+ IMO.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe in 9 days if this was moving NNE from HSE. :lol: 

I’d tell folks to pace themselves but we just went through an entire winter breathlessly chasing D10 ghosts. A D10 cane is the holy grail and the train has left the weenie station. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Love these, thanks for sharing.

100%. The euro run verbatim doesn’t get it done D10+ IMO.

I’d tell folks to pace themselves but we just went through an entire winter breathlessly chasing D10 ghosts. A D10 cane is the holy grail and the train has left the weenie station. 

If winter storms are day 10 ghosts, then a day 10 cane is like prepping for the coming of Gozer. 

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Ok... I will now say something positive about the possible threat...  I do like the hint of the bottom of approaching trough on the op Euro starting to sag a bit southwest, as the strong short-wave exits quickly into eastern Canada.  The more separation from the Canadian short-wave and the base of the trough could allow this feature to amplify further, especially if we feed anymore energy in from the northwest??? If you toggle the last 12-hour period and focus on the bottom of the trough you can get a sense of the potential for the base of the trough to "possibly" come east and foster a bit more west or northwest pull on the track.   The faster the short-wave in eastern CT exits the better...  Still a long shot overall and plenty of room for escape, but this is an interesting trend overall...

 

image.png.521e6a29dc5ebe7f6ed77e3f3963e308.png

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