WxWatcher007 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: We track We do, but I trust ridging a hell of a lot more than trying to get a trough, and we pretty much need a trough. If you want interesting, you want more changes on the euro at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Congrats eastern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Congrats eastern Maine And eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Too bad the trough we hoped and wanted lifts out on the GFS op. every run has different ideas on the spacing and temporal-spacing. ...not sold on any one of them - I'm also suspicious that the GFS may be responsive to too much application of beta mechanics causing the track to curve too soon along that model's cinema. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: every run has different ideas on the spacing and temporal-spacing. ...not sold on any one of them - I'm also suspicious that the GFS may be responsive to too much application of beta mechanics causing the track to curve too soon along that model's cinema. You could see two notable things. One was the ridging a little stronger to the north and the first initial trough weaker and lifting out. That allowed for a more srn track. But, the trough that was the feature to help "suck" this up also lifted out. So the only way this got close, was that the ridge to its east actually was dam strong. Otherwise it would have curved NE much more abruptly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You could see two notable things. One was the ridging a little stronger to the north and the first initial trough weaker and lifting out. That allowed for a more srn track. But, the trough that was the feature to help "suck" this up also lifted out. So the only way this got close, was that the ridge to its east actually was dam strong. Otherwise it would have curved NE much more abruptly. Yeah... per this run, it was precariously missing just enough to max out the heart ache and hand wringing hahaha. I've maintained from the get go that beyond ~ D6 ... that is entering a "predictive event horizon" - based in no small part on continuity issues with guidance between ORD-D.C. and NF triangulum; that is creating a virtual boundary in time and space beyond which there is zero knowing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Unlike most on this board, I am rooting hard against this storm...and I'm still very worried. Way too soon to sound the all clear. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You could see two notable things. One was the ridging a little stronger to the north and the first initial trough weaker and lifting out. That allowed for a more srn track. But, the trough that was the feature to help "suck" this up also lifted out. So the only way this got close, was that the ridge to its east actually was dam strong. Otherwise it would have curved NE much more abruptly. Yeah that's how we do it. Forget about a negative tilt OV/TN valley trough absorbing/capturing it, that's a pipe dream. I'd rather a big blocking high to the northeast run a squeeze play situation. As we mentioned Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Great analogy! That provides a visual which is quite simple to understand. I'm a simple guy!!! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah that's how we do it. Forget about a negative tilt OV/TN valley trough absorbing/capturing it, that's a pipe dream. I'd rather a big blocking high to the northeast run a squeeze play situation. As we mentioned Sunday Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher. That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works... not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer... at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Shabbs likes it and thinks it’s got a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, FXWX said: Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher. That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works... not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer... at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS... May be more difficult or rare, but both Carol and Edna occurred in this type of regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 atlantic ridge looks better at 120 on the Eruo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 37 minutes ago, FXWX said: Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher. That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works... not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer... at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS... 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shabbs likes it and thinks it’s got a shot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 KMA 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 huge step towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: KMA Kev Model Supreme 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 We tried telling https://x.com/hurricaneaddict/status/1699126363792310745?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 One thing for sure. When we do finally end up getting one this board is going to implode. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Not exact times but posting for the purpose of a crude comparison. The last three euro runs at 240. We’ll see what the ensembles do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Not happening James 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We tried telling https://x.com/hurricaneaddict/status/1699126363792310745?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg LOL... using Korean model from a post by a guy with "Hurricane Addict" is priceless Kev... Cracks me up... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: KMA 1938 but moving only half as fast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not exact times but posting for the purpose of a crude comparison. The last three euro runs at 240. We’ll see what the ensembles do. More ridging in the Atlantic Worrisome trends but plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Everything has a shot... even Wiz has a shot at dating Taylor Swift... sorry Wiz but the best I could come up with quickly... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 hoping the 12z EPS follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: May be more difficult or rare, but both Carol and Edna occurred in this type of regime. Hmmm... a hint of similarity, but with some significant differences... both had a more of an approaching trough with some capture / tug impacts... Again, not saying it wouldn't be close or interesting, but need to see some trough support... Here are the 500 mb maps for Edna followed by Carol at approach to Carolina coast.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Euro looks quite a bit better by 240. At least the UL pattern. L/W trough over Hudson Bay right where you want it, strong high pressures over the N ATL. S/W over SE Canada splits and zips NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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