WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scooter not getting it Well, it’s smart to be very skeptical, but let’s just hope things can trend in the direction we want them too. That high/ridging looks to be getting stronger the last couple days. But as we all know there’s a very long way to go here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well, it’s smart to be very skeptical, but let’s just hope things can trend in the direction we want them too. That high/ridging looks to be getting stronger the last couple days. But as we all know there’s a very long way to go here. Why do you want a hurricane to hit New England? Personally, I can do without it. 4 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Why do you want a hurricane to hit New England? Personally, I can do without it. it's good for society 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 52 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Why do you want a hurricane to hit New England? Personally, I can do without it. We need a little excitement in the weather department….it’s been a long time since a hurricane really hit NewEngland. But Don’t worry, there’s a 98% chance it won’t get in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 46 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: it's good for society Bahaha…Now that’s f’n funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 4 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Why do you want a hurricane to hit New England? Personally, I can do without it. I guess it would be exciting weather wise but the effects of a big time hurricane is not something you would want to deal with. It would be fun for a couple hours and then every tree would start snapping and falling down. Your house would be target practice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: it's good for society It's good for generator sales... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 https://x.com/jimcantore/status/1698992832789274966?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Should be watched in the Canadian Maritimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 She gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 First trough over the SE creates a weakness that pulls this N. Not sure how we avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: She gone We wave goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: First trough over the SE creates a weakness that pulls this N. Not sure how we avoid that. We don't... this will be one of those great looking systems that doesn't have a chance of getting to coast. Should put on a nice satellite image show though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Just now, FXWX said: We don't... this will be one of those great looking systems that doesn't have a chance of getting to coast. Should put on a nice satellite image show though... As the Sox fans used to say, there’s always next year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, FXWX said: We don't... this will be one of those great looking systems that doesn't have a chance of getting to coast. Should put on a nice satellite image show though... What a waste then…another fish storm. Hopefully it doesn’t even materialize if that’s the case. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Hopefully this pulls a Franklin and we all live happily ever after. No harm no foul. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 some of the 6z GEFS showing how the east coast can get it done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: some of the 6z GEFS showing how the east coast can get it done Game is still very much on . Nothing can be or should be ruled out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: What a waste then…another fish storm. Hopefully it doesn’t even materialize if that’s the case. That's why the repeat period is so long... it's like trying to paddle upstream into an increasing strong current; most of the time it succeeds in turning you away. Basic meteorology shows New England is usually fully embedded in the westerlies. I wouldn't say the odds of this getting to the coast is zero, but they are low... could it make a close approach? Yes but work needs to be done to get it to the coast. Still time in the season for another threat or two... actually the odds increase a bit once more vigorous polar short waves start to show up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, FXWX said: That's why the repeat period is so long... it's like trying to paddle upstream into an increasing strong current; most of the time it succeeds in turning you away. Basic meteorology shows New England is usually fully embedded in the westerlies. I wouldn't say the odds of this getting to the coast is zero, but they are low... could it make a close approach? Yes but work needs to be done to get it to the coast. Still time in the season for another threat or two... actually the odds increase a bit once more vigorous polar short waves start to show up... Thanks John, appreciate the explanation. I do understand the whole idea…and also understand the repeat period length. But the way I see it, We’ve been very fortunate, and are beyond the repeat time for a full fledged hurricane to impact SNE. Can only get so lucky so many times, before the luck runs out, and one gets pulled up here. I think we’re coming close, or are past that repeat period. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Game is still very much on . Nothing can be or should be ruled out Yes I do agree at this early stage. Thing isn’t even a depression yet. And days and days away from even approaching the east coast. But things need to keep evolving to have a legit shot. The next few days will be telling for sure. Very Low confidence currently anything can come of it, but still too early to be ruled out completely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Also if you have rapid intensification, there is a thing called beta drift that occurs. Without getting technical, the strong storms tend to drift ever so much to the right or poleward. That would increase the chance of getting kicked out to sea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 All kidding aside, like what John said, it’s not a zero chance… But I’m not really seeing an avenue to the East Coast at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All kidding aside, like with John said, it’s not a zero chance… But I’m not really seeing an avenue to the East Coast at the moment. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also if you have rapid intensification, there is a thing called beta drift that occurs. Without getting technical, the strong storms tend to drift ever so much to the right or poleward. That would increase the chance of getting kicked out to sea. Oh ya, I get that too. Well thing hasn’t even formed yet, so just have to give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes I do agree at this early stage. Thing isn’t even a depression yet. And days and days away from even approaching the east coast. But things need to keep evolving to have a legit shot. The next few days will be telling for sure. Very Low confidence currently anything can come of it, but still too early to be ruled out completely. Agree Wolfie... we can never sleep on the threat... and we don't need a Cat 3 at LF to have major impacts. The nature of our hardwood forecast and densely populated region opens the door to widespread long duration power issues even with a solid Cat 1 / 2... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also if you have rapid intensification, there is a thing called beta drift that occurs. Without getting technical, the strong storms tend to drift ever so much to the right or poleward. That would increase the chance of getting kicked out to sea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Digest that as you drink your coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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