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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That high over SE Canada is even stronger today than it was yesterday by 3mb.  

The high is important, but to @FXWX’s point, the door doesn’t really open without a GL negative or cutoff trough. That’s the key. 

A far less likely way would be to eliminate the troughing and get two ridges—one over the CONUS and a big WAR and steer future Lee around the periphery of the WAR. Seems unlikely though. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The high is important, but to @FXWX’s point, the door doesn’t really open without a GL negative or cutoff trough. That’s the key. 

A far less likely way would be to eliminate the troughing and get two ridges—one over the CONUS and a big WAR and steer future Lee around the periphery of the WAR. Seems unlikely though. 

A stronger high may serve to slow the system, possibly even stall it a bit.  In past similar situations, a slowing/blocked or stalling setup could increase the threat to the Carolinas; maybe hold it southeast of the Carolinas until a bigger trough comes along to grab it.   Not 100% out of the question that a strong high wouldn't direct it into the Carolinas and whatever remains comes northeast as a blustery tropical rain event.  Not very likely but on the list of possibilities if the high goes crazy.  Even if the high becomes a blocker, you still need the type of MW trough I've talked about to get SNE in trouble otherwise it becomes Carolina hit and rains itself over TN/OH.

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15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The high is important, but to @FXWX’s point, the door doesn’t really open without a GL negative or cutoff trough. That’s the key. 

A far less likely way would be to eliminate the troughing and get two ridges—one over the CONUS and a big WAR and steer future Lee around the periphery of the WAR. Seems unlikely though. 

The former is being illustrated by the CMC/GFS actually today.  

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39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Salisbury Beach  closed this afternoon for swimming.. waves plus rip currents 

Weak sauce . Lifeguards didn’t want the risk of having to rescue someone with hundreds of people there . Waves were good (I was at Hampton less than 10 miles away) but that is soft as jelly on Labor Day With waves about 3-4’.
 

You typically just have lifeguards set up two flags outside where a rip current is present (they are persistent and easily identifiable) and don’t allow swimming between them and a day like today where the surface of the water is semi glassy .. you just look for the ripples along the surface of the water that run out toward and past the surf break zone (usually at a slight angle ) . 

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38 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Let’s keep the trends with GL trough digging more SW and and SE Canadian ridging Somewhat consistent and or growing . Keep things fun 

Agreed. Be nice to have some type of threat to get a little excited about.  But ya, it’s very early still…thing ain’t even a depression yet. 

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