Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Off topic some, but Was just thinking how the “I” named Tropical cyclones have been so notorious….Ione, Inez, Isabel, Irene, Ian, Isaias, Isidore, Igor, Ike, Ida, Irma, Ivan, Idalia. I mean that I storm has been a bitch and infamous for many. That’s amazing when you think about it. “I” has the most retired names of any letter in the Atlantic. Ok, back to our originally scheduled programming. Yea the I's have it lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea the I's have it lol Holy smokes for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Seems like a gradual trend towards lower heights in the GL the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Damn what a hit for Hazey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Here we come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 We recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Favorable trends continue https://x.com/yconsor/status/1698668682212250061?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Off topic some, but Was just thinking how the “I” named Tropical cyclones have been so notorious….Ione, Inez, Isabel, Irene, Ian, Isaias, Isidore, Igor, Ike, Ida, Irma, Ivan, Idalia. I mean that I storm has been a bitch and infamous for many. That’s amazing when you think about it. “I” has the most retired names of any letter in the Atlantic. Ok, back to our originally scheduled programming. Maybe they should name this one "Infamous" then 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 The GFS has been horrific recently in the tropics. Euro not much better. Until we start seeing ticks on the ensembles the operationals should be taken with a bucket of salt. This is still 10 days out with steering pattern focus at least 5 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe they should name this one "Infamous" then Not a bad idea…lol. But I think we’re on letter L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We recurve You don’t know that…and you know it. But by all means play the odds…it’s worked most times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Man I haven’t seen Wolfie so hurricaned up. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Man I haven’t seen Wolfie so hurricaned up. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: You don’t know that…and you know it. But by all means play the odds…it’s worked most times. IMHO, many, not all, folks are looking in the wrong direction... constantly looking seaward to follow slightest change in modeled track is almost pointless. Just turn around and monitor the upper layout trends from the lower Great Lakes / TN Valley areas eastward to the coast. Unless there are significant changes in the that area, this thing will recurve... now it may tease the EC, and we could wake up to a nice-looking storm south of New England, but it will be escaping seaward... While some lower heights are now modeled across the Great Lakes / Midwest area, it is not sufficient for just a mean trough approaching the EC, it has to be one that features at least a neutral alignment with at least a hint of negativity. I will get interested if and when that happens, but it is not there yet... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: IMHO, many, not all, folks are looking in the wrong direction... constantly looking seaward to follow slightest change in modeled track is almost pointless. Just turn around and monitor the upper layout trends from the lower Great Lakes / TN Valley areas eastward to the coast. Unless there are significant changes in the that area, this thing will recurve... now it may tease the EC, and we could wake up to a nice-looking storm south of New England, but it will be escaping seaward... While some lower heights are now modeled across the Great Lakes / Midwest area, it is not sufficient for just a mean trough approaching the EC, it has to be one that features at least a neutral alignment with at least a hint of negativity. I will get interested if and when that happens, but it is not there yet... It is slowly trending and evolving . You can see the deeper MW trough each run too. Not there yet no.. but the trends are favorable https://x.com/yconsor/status/1698694985820848392?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 917mb on the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 I’ve got my “eye” on you , SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Too bad the UL pattern is absolute azz on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It is slowly trending and evolving . You can see the deeper MW trough each run too. Not there yet no.. but the trends are favorable https://x.com/yconsor/status/1698694985820848392?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Fourcast net And Pangu? Are these models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 I mean there’s been a lot of hurricane Bill talk, why not a repeat? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It is slowly trending and evolving . You can see the deeper MW trough each run too. Not there yet no.. but the trends are favorable https://x.com/yconsor/status/1698694985820848392?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Hey Kev, I'd like a good tropical just as much as any other guy! I love the excitement the approach a hurricane threat to the East Coast can bring. And I will be monitoring for changes and trends. But we will need to see very significant pattern trends with any evolving MW trough in the next 48 hours or so... If there is even any modest southwest flow component to the right side of the trough, this will turn seaward when it nears the coast, if it makes it that far west. You need neutral trough alignment at least; ideally a bit of a slight negative tilt. Also, be very wary of any model attempts at a capture into the trough as it gets close to the coast... That almost has to have a full-blown negative trough approaching to workout. I'd love to see it and will jump onboard if trends suggest it; hell, a good hurricane hit threat is great for my business... I have a whole house / office generator and weeks of propane, no trees anywhere near my house, so a can dela with the disruptions a good hit would produce. Keep the faith Kev... you never know??? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Sea ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 The NAO is slipping negative ... I'm a little 'concerned' (for lack of better word) that we may end up a pulsed resistance to an east turn once we near that supposed D7 position - those that have gone on to become problems for the EC to NF, if there is ambition to see those problems take place you have to at least do this much ... ...which that's like step 1. Beyond D7 is what I like to call the 'predictive even horizon' ...There are model solutions that go out that far, but they and the collection of them et al are no better than guess work - there's not real 'sight' in that space-time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: The NAO is slipping negative ... I'm ' a little ' concern (for lack of better word) that we may end up a pulsed resistance to an east turn once we near that supposed D7 position - those that have gone on to become problems for the EC to NF, if there is ambition to see those problems take place you have to at least do this much ... ...which that's like step 1. Beyond D7 is what I like to call the 'predictive even horizon' ...There are model solutions that go out that far, but they and the collection of the of them et al are no better than guess work - there's not real 'sight' in that space-time. Agreed . This is going to likely be a threat to the Mid-ATL/ NE. That trough keeps digging a bit more and shifting west each successive ensemble run. Still work to do but man is this getting interesting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 1 hour ago, FXWX said: hell, a good hurricane hit threat is great for my business.. What business are you in...are you a TV met? A good hurricane is a disaster for my business...insurance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Agreed . This is going to likely be a threat to the Mid-ATL/ NE. That trough keeps digging a bit more and shifting west each successive ensemble run. Still work to do but man is this getting interesting Mmm... not ready to say 'likely' just yet. Step 1, 'key slot' check Step 2, -NAO pulse over the western limb timed accordingly ... not quite checked off but hovering the pen Step 3, trough in the Lakes orienting the flow parallel to the coast ... this part is invisible to the layout until maybe 72 hours from now. 96+ would be better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: What business are you in...are you a TV met? A good hurricane is a disaster for my business...insurance. You guys commune with your gulf coast and floridian corporate cousins lol. There's an insurance exodus underway. That's the first step imo in 'climate refugee' scenario - so to speak. California's next. Insurance pulls out like a trailer park birth control option signal economic abandonment, ... population follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Need multi model agreement on a deep GL trough and we don’t have that. She gone. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 47 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: What business are you in...are you a TV met? A good hurricane is a disaster for my business...insurance. Private consulting meteorologist... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Aside from the track conversation, just look at this presentation. I know some of you don’t care unless it’s pushing cat 5 or threatening your backyard, but this is poised to be a beast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now