weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Oh so now you agree that cold front was the catalyst for the complete pattern flip. However I believe that a transient well timed pattern will easily let any tropical up here. A back break does not mean it's over tropical wise. Agree on SSTs but our great hits are by 35 mph moving cyclones and SSTs minimally affect those. Ask Newfoundland about that. 19 hours ago, FXWX said: Sometimes the smarter we are the dumber we get! Looking at the SST profiles just south and east of SNE and using that as an "all clear" single is folly! And history bears that out. I don't think Sandy and the 1938 hurricane cared much about the SST. Newfoundland? hell, ask Nova Scotia about that... Almost all of our meaningful hits featured a fall-like pattern transition underway with a digging or negatively tilting trough approaching. For us, it is all about a fast northward moving system that goes from NC to SNE in 12 hours or less, be dammed the SST. We are never talking about a system crawling along at 15 to mph... That's not, nor ever will be how SNE does hurricanes... Certainly a fast moving, strong tropical system isn't going to care much about SST's. Absolutely agreed there. However, it's not guaranteed any system would accelerate, even though historically that seems to be the case. All I was suggesting is with the SST's, a slower moving system would have much more time to weaken and probably weaken steadily. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Remember "dead season" worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Remember "dead season" worries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 It's coming this summer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's coming this summer Euro might be a east coast threat at 12z... if a big enough storm hits the east coast I'll cancel my Florida trip to go 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 The Diamond Jubilee + 10 anniversary of the ‘38 storm…Let’s do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 52 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: please Gfs on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Here we go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here we go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 absolutely brutal recurve though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Taake me down to recurve city where the tracks are shit, but the storms are pretty. Oh won't you pleeaasaseeee take me hoommmmeee 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Regardless of whether it makes a close approach to the US, it’s a classic long track CV signal. Don 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: Taake me down to recurve city where the tracks are shit, but the storms are pretty. Oh won't you pleeaasaseeee take me hoommmmeee At this range please show a miss allllllll day. If it’s hitting on the models at this range it’s always a rug pull. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Don Wouldn’t be surprised. Given that an ERC was happening, it was a really interesting eyewall with a lot of spinning. The damage survey after had a lot of trees snapped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: please It’s as close to a MH lock as you’ll ever see, which means I was probably too conservative with my peak season MH forecast. I don’t think that’s it before October 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s as close to a MH lock as you’ll ever see, which means I was probably too conservative with my peak season MH forecast. I don’t think that’s it before October 20. What is a MH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What is a MH Major hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 way OTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wouldn’t be surprised. Given that an ERC was happening, it was a really interesting eyewall with a lot of spinning. The damage survey after had a lot of trees snapped. Most of the damage I saw in the Pan Handle from Michael was tornado related vs straight line wind damage; so this would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 It's interesting ... these models ( all of them) appear to be seeing the +d(GLAAM) state of the subtropics in allowing this next 'flurry' of MDR activity to deliver one into positions so far west across the Basin. Indirectly, our incoming dry period of days with positive temperature anomalies ... really is part of all that. The same super synoptic scale forcing that's altered the pattern for this new paradigm, is also what sets up the Basin to allow a TC to evade recurving earlier... Anyway, that all said ...and assuming we find ourselves with a well-formed entity passing through the climate key-slot lat/lon (no less) like the models are suggesting, there would be work that needs to be done with the particulars between the Great Lakes and NF. The circulation mode isn't right. There's plenty of time though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's interesting ... these models ( all of them) appear to be seeing the +d(GLAAM) state of the subtropics in allowing this next 'flurry' of MDR activity to deliver one into positions so far west across the Basin. Indirectly, our incoming dry period of days with positive temperature anomalies ... really is part of all that. The same super synoptic scale forcing that's altered the pattern for this new paradigm, is also what sets up the Basin to allow a TC to evade recurving earlier... Anyway, that all said ...and assuming we find ourselves with a well-formed entity passing through the climate key-slot lat/lon (no less) like the models are suggesting, there would be work that needs to be done with the particulars between the Great Lakes and NF. The circulation mode isn't right. There's plenty of time though. If the particulars of the Great Lakes and New Foundland circulation mode are even being modeled right at this two week lead time…I’d bargain that they aren’t(as you obviously know). So as you said, there is lots of time to see how that particular set up(circulation) ultimately unfolds in reality. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 This is our shot lets makes the most of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 9:44 AM, weatherwiz said: Certainly a fast moving, strong tropical system isn't going to care much about SST's. Absolutely agreed there. However, it's not guaranteed any system would accelerate, even though historically that seems to be the case. All I was suggesting is with the SST's, a slower moving system would have much more time to weaken and probably weaken steadily. I hear ya Wiz... it's that historically they almost never move up the coast slowly and tend to move faster than all the models forecast. It's seems to me there almost always a model bias of being too slow when it is all said and done. All that being said, if the we were to get a slow northward moving system, the cool waters would certainly be a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: If the particulars of the Great Lakes and New Foundland circulation mode are even being modeled right at this two week lead time…I’d bargain that they aren’t(as you obviously know). So as you said, there is lots of time to see how that particular set up(circulation) ultimately unfolds in reality. In the end, we will have to see a more pronounced reflection of lower heights south of the Great Lakes (Ohio Valley area) that can eventually produce a neutral or negative alignment to any trough coming east. Would have to follow system coming southeast out of central Canada to see if that potential eventually exist. Far less worried about the ridge... unless we eventually see signs of Ohio Valley troughing odds are low for a coastal runner! Carolina threat in play moreso. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 Totally agree. The troughing signal is going to be uncertain for at least another 7-10 days IMO. Get it to the Antilles and we'll see what things look like. Get it to the Bahamas and all bets are off. OTS favored until there's a strong EC signal. This one is a big dog whether it impacts land or goes OTS. CV major of yore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Totally agree. The troughing signal is going to be uncertain for at least another 7-10 days IMO. Get it to the Antilles and we'll see what things look like. Get it to the Bahamas and all bets are off. OTS favored until there's a strong EC signal. This one is a big dog whether it impacts land or goes OTS. CV major of yore. Out to sea is always favored…the odds are always very high of that happening. Don, what makes you sure this turns into a big dog? Is it the modeling that gives you that confidence? Or are you seeing something else? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This is our shot lets makes the most of it 85 yrs since the last major in 38, seems like a reasonable span of time to get the next one in here….it’d be an exciting ride tracking a beast like that on its way up this way, especially in this (modern) day and age that’s for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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