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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, I doubt it. If it did it would be stratus and a 15mph wind. Next.

Yea, I don't get the intrigue...aside from perhaps being a meteorological novelty were it to make it here, which it won't.

Its like bragging that you are finally dating the prom queen.....70 years later-

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A track from the east ain’t it if we want legit tropical. Either the euro has to haul it west before cooler waters or it’ll need to get suppressed to our south and slung NW. This is really just weenie hoping and praying and tracking, which is fine, but hopefully expectations are where they should be right now. Zero :lol: 

natlanti.c.gif
 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A track from the east ain’t it if we want legit tropical. Either the euro has to haul it west before cooler waters or it’ll need to get suppressed to our south and slung NW. This is really just weenie hoping and praying and tracking, which is fine, but hopefully expectations are where they should be right now. Zero :lol: 

natlanti.c.gif
 

The summer's back breaking cold front at the end of July which smacked the SST's down pretty much ended any likelihood for a solid cane to impact our area should one come up the coast. Exception being something accelerates northward from the Carolina's and is a 3/4 strength. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The summer's back breaking cold front at the end of July which smacked the SST's down pretty much ended any likelihood for a solid cane to impact our area should one come up the coast. Exception being something accelerates northward from the Carolina's and is a 3/4 strength. 

I actually think we’re ripe in that department. Look at the OHC too. It’s enough. 

RJrucJU.jpg

A climo track implies a fast mover hugging the coast and the Gulf Stream so I think the real issue is not having a kicker trough. They’re lurking even when we don’t think they are.

If we were developing an ideal sloppy seconds Idalia track, it would get trapped under the ridge and pushed westward back toward the Carolinas until a trough picks it up. 

Aside from that, real chances would come from homebrew in the western Caribbean or Bahamas. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The summer's back breaking cold front at the end of July which smacked the SST's down pretty much ended any likelihood for a solid cane to impact our area should one come up the coast. Exception being something accelerates northward from the Carolina's and is a 3/4 strength. 

Oh so now you agree that cold front was the catalyst for the complete pattern flip. However I believe that a transient well timed pattern will easily let any tropical up here. A back break does not mean it's over tropical wise. Agree on SSTs but our great hits are by 35 mph moving cyclones and SSTs minimally affect those. Ask Newfoundland about that.

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh so now you agree that cold front was the catalyst for the complete pattern flip. However I believe that a transient well timed pattern will easily let any tropical up here. A back break does not mean it's over tropical wise. Agree on SSTs but our great hits are by 35 mph moving cyclones and SSTs minimally affect those. Ask Newfoundland about that.

Agreed..anything else is basically a glorified nor’easter 

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57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh so now you agree that cold front was the catalyst for the complete pattern flip. However I believe that a transient well timed pattern will easily let any tropical up here. A back break does not mean it's over tropical wise. Agree on SSTs but our great hits are by 35 mph moving cyclones and SSTs minimally affect those. Ask Newfoundland about that.

Sometimes the smarter we are the dumber we get!  Looking at the SST profiles just south and east of SNE and using that as an "all clear" single is folly!  And history bears that out.  I don't think Sandy and the 1938 hurricane cared much about the SST.  Newfoundland? hell, ask Nova Scotia about that...  Almost all of our meaningful hits featured a fall-like pattern transition underway with a digging or negatively tilting trough approaching.   For us, it is all about a fast northward moving system that goes from NC to SNE in 12 hours or less, be dammed the SST.  We are never talking about a system crawling along at 15 to mph... That's not, nor ever will be how SNE does hurricanes... 

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