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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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42 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Meteorologically speaking, this will likely deliver a once in a lifetime event for the area. Almost 100 years since the last Category 2 made landfall in the area. From a relative perspective, and while you never wish for a major hurricane to impact people's lives, yet thankfully this event will occur across some of the least populated areas of Florida. 

Posted in the Tropical HQ thread:

-------

One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. 

Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls

  • Hermine (2016) - Category 1
  • Alma (1966) - Category 1 
  • Unnamed (1941) - Category 1
  • Unnamed (1935) - Category 2
  • Unnamed (1899) - Category 2
  • Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
  • Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
  • Unnamed (1882) - Category 1
  • Unnamed (1880) - Category 1
  • Unnamed (1873) - Category 1
  • Unnamed (1867) - Category 1
  • Unnamed (1852) - Category 2

 

Thanks for the info... right after I sent that post, I saw several sources proving that if the Idalia does indeed hit the area now projected and does produce the level of surge forecast, it will be a once in lifetime or generation event for those folks.  

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2 hours ago, FXWX said:

I'm sure it will be for someone... Maybe folks that have not lived along the west coast of Florida and just moved to FL in the past 9 months; babies that were born last fall and later...  Although in all seriousness, some of the modeled surge heights for the area most likely to be near and just east of the LF, I think you have to go back a long way to find those surge heights.  Of course, it is very much location specific in that big bend area and have not had to look too deeply into surge heights in past storms to hit that area, but 10 to 15' may be record setting it a few spots.

Yeah … no doubt.

My snark was aimed at CNNs headline rabble rousing lol.  They take NWS statements like never in that region …and convert it never in your life life life  

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah … no doubt.

My snark was aimed at CNNs headline rabble rousing lol.  They take NWS statements like never in that region …and convert it never in your life life life  

I hear ya... Just got off the phone with a former student of mine; he is now the Meteorologist in Charge at Tampa NWS...  He indicated that if the surge forecast is correct, it would be above any levels in modern time for a portion of the Big Bend area; they have responsibility through Cedar Key before NWS Tallahassee zones takeover.   His concern is there are over 2 dozen residents within the max surge zone that have refused to evacuate... 

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15 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I hear ya... Just got off the phone with a former student of mine; he is now the Meteorologist in Charge at Tampa NWS...  He indicated that if the surge forecast is correct, it would be above any levels in modern time for a portion of the Big Bend area; they have responsibility through Cedar Key before NWS Tallahassee zones takeover.   His concern is there are over 2 dozen residents within the max surge zone that have refused to evacuate... 

They should go ahead, throw hands, and name one of these, ‘Darwin’  There’s a CNNer for em, “Darwin targets rural Americana gulf folk, y’all”

Officials take the wrong delicate touchy feely tact. They shouldn’t warn and impose evac … they should say next of kin are responsible for bloated corpse retrieval fees for when your own frozen assets can no longer cover the cost of clean up. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They should go ahead, throw hands, and name one of these, ‘Darwin’  There’s a CNNer for em, “Darwin targets rural Americana gulf folk, y’all”

They take the wrong tact. They shouldn’t warn and impose evac … they should say next of kin are responsible for bloated corpse retrieval fees for when your own frozen assets can no longer cover the cost of clean up. 

In some cases, they do interview them, and request info needed for identification, and family members to contact, if need be...

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...you know what CNN is insinuating with their headlines. This is just a statistical anomaly plus geometry challenged region.

And NPR, Everytime I tune in it's something about how climate change is to blame.....

I could only imagine if we had a 1950s redux what everyone be saying...... 

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