weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Holy shit...surge updated to 10-15 feet along the big bend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nice work man. Love to see a chaser get out and enjoy their passion Enjoy. Steinahatchee is my best guess right now , not sure If there is really much civilization up that way Thanks. Really rural out here so not a ton of options. Really tough center forecast when a few miles makes a huge difference. Watching that west trend among the hurricane models too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Looks like the 12z hurricane model guidance shifted back east a little from 06z late run....more in line with the 00z forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like the 12z hurricane model guidance shifted back east a little from 06z late run....more in line with the 00z forecast Can you imagine if AVN1 won that debate as a category 5'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Imho, Idalia just like in the last 90 minutes, took on a look that resembles a hurricane an not just some blob concealing a circulation underneath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Apologies to that one dude whom I triggered, but here is my Final Call....feel free to not read or look because I am insignificant. Major Hurricane Strike on Florida Panhandle Expected Wednesday | Eastern Mass Weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Here we go https://x.com/ericblake12/status/1696551760993616257?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here we go https://x.com/ericblake12/status/1696551760993616257?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Does he really have a pit in his stomach , this is what they live for . It is finally getting that “look” . Any good news seems that it looks to be effecting one of the least populated areas near Steinahatchee or even West with LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Does he really have a pit in his stomach , this is what they live for . It is finally getting that “look” . Any good news seems that it looks to be effecting one of the least populated areas near Steinahatchee or even West with LF Sounds like a fun town. I fear this being closer to TLH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 "Apologies to that one dude whom I triggered, but here is my Final Call....feel free to not read or look because I am insignificant." Don't let anyone get in your "space" Your appreciated, a valued weather nut. Happened to me on numerous occasions, getting called out. I went off! once. Today I regret my actions and comments just the way that I reciprocated. Not worth it. I'M GETTING A BIT NERVOUS. One of the things in my bucket list is to experience the passage and being in the EYE of a Major Hurricane. Here's my chance. I chase 50 miles to my N. BINGO! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sounds like a fun town. I fear this being closer to TLH. I think Epstein winters in Steinahatchee That’s why I asked Wxwatcher If there was any civilization Well Nw of Cedar key. The town names like Fish Creek nw of Steinahatchee don’t sound much better . If there was a spot relatively elevated a few miles from ocean that was more than a frightening motel I would probably head there or prepare to after euro run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think Epstein winters in Steinahatchee That’s why I asked Wxwatcher If there was any civilization Well Nw of Cedar key. The town names like Fish Creek nw of Steinahatchee don’t sound much better . If there was a spot relatively elevated a few miles from ocean that was more than a frightening motel I would probably head there or prepare to after euro run Yeah not much. It was a dark ride into Chiefland last night. Other problem with those places is idk if I’d trust the roof/structure to hold during a major strike. That’s a big part of my planning. I saw one motel and it was barely holding together lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah not much. It was a dark ride into Chiefland last night. Other problem with those places is idk if I’d trust the roof/structure to hold during a major strike. That’s a big part of my planning. I saw one motel and it was barely holding together lol. I believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Steinhatchee is also a surge/evac zone. No bueno. I only chase for wind. I try to get as close as I can without being in surge risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Steinhatchee is also a surge/evac zone. No bueno. I only chase for wind. I try to get as close as I can without being in surge risk. Well cmc just took it to apilachicola There is a best western in Medart area which is 30 miles S of TLH and inland about 8 miles Also Wakula springs has a respectable resort it looks like for 115 tonite (that is SSE of TLH) icon loves that area Or 20 miles East in Perry FL at the Hampton inn near the airport (that is about half hour N west of Steinahatchee) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Here comes the CNN machine ... Idalia could be a once-in-a-lifetime event 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Here comes the CNN machine ... Idalia could be a once-in-a-lifetime event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I have some friends in Punta Gorda who just said they are having one hell of a thunderstorm out ahead of Idalia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 She’s heading to Floribama for landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 mm, I guess if this really true ...or turns out true, it technically would be a once in a life timer. I just don't like CNN's divisive tact they normally take - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Starting to see a formation of an eye now it seems on the last couple of scans on sat radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Euro landfalls Between Saint Marks and Scanlon Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro also right where HAFS-A and HAFS-B are. near and just SE of Newport FL. Wagons west it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm in Chiefland, FL this morning, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview... I might be the only other person in this sub forum that’s been to Chiefland lol. I drove through that area about 15 years ago on my way from Tampa to southwest Georgia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wagons west it looks like. There is a weakness at H5 that to me, is allowing for a move into Apalachee Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 RI ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is a weakness at H5 that to me, is allowing for a move into Apalachee Bay. Ridge looks a touch stronger too, at least compared to yesterday’s 12z Euro Signal looks legit for an Apalachee Bay special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 First storm rolled through. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Here comes the CNN machine ... Idalia could be a once-in-a-lifetime event I'm sure it will be for someone... Maybe folks that have not lived along the west coast of Florida and just moved to FL in the past 9 months; babies that were born last fall and later... Although in all seriousness, some of the modeled surge heights for the area most likely to be near and just east of the LF, I think you have to go back a long way to find those surge heights. Of course, it is very much location specific in that big bend area and have not had to look too deeply into surge heights in past storms to hit that area, but 10 to 15' may be record setting it a few spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, FXWX said: I'm sure it will be for someone... Maybe folks that have not lived along the west coast of Florida and just moved to FL in the past 9 months; babies that were born last fall and later... Although in all seriousness, some of the modeled surge heights for the area most likely to be near and just east of the LF, I think you have to go back a long way to find those surge heights. Of course, it is very much location specific in that big bend area and have not had to look too deeply into surge heights in past storms to hit that area, but 10 to 15' may be record setting it a few spots. Meteorologically speaking, this will likely deliver a once in a lifetime event for the area. Almost 100 years since the last Category 2 made landfall in the area. From a relative perspective, and while you never wish for a major hurricane to impact people's lives, yet thankfully this event will occur across some of the least populated areas of Florida. Posted in the Tropical HQ thread: ------- One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls Hermine (2016) - Category 1 Alma (1966) - Category 1 Unnamed (1941) - Category 1 Unnamed (1935) - Category 2 Unnamed (1899) - Category 2 Unnamed (1886) - Category 2 Unnamed (1886) - Category 2 Unnamed (1882) - Category 1 Unnamed (1880) - Category 1 Unnamed (1873) - Category 1 Unnamed (1867) - Category 1 Unnamed (1852) - Category 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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