ineedsnow Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 12z and 18z GEFS bit shift west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 11 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 968mb on tropical tidbits I'm wish this was snow 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 It’s coming! https://x.com/usawx/status/1694390011368489353?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s coming! https://x.com/usawx/status/1694390011368489353?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Lol..if only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol..if only. Toss that, but I’ve been looking at potential from a CAG in that region for the last week of August going back a week now. A system in the eastern Gulf into the SE region wouldn’t surprise me. From there probably OTS but who knows. If we get anything this year, it’s not coming from a long track MDR wave IMO with the difficulty we’ve seen getting a proper WAR. It’s homebrew or bust around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 What’s this CAG? Central Area of The Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: What’s this CAG? Central Area of The Gulf? Central American Gyre. It’s a broad area of spin over the region that usually appears a few times a year but mostly late season. You can get homebrew spin ups from it in the Atlantic or EPAC but forecasting TC development from it is notoriously difficult. Even on the less bullish GFS, the broad vorticity is there. In the area right above the bottom arrow, you can see higher vorticity in the EPAC that’ll likely spin up. As a monsoon trough on the EPAC side (ribbon of higher vorticity) continues lifting north, it’ll bring more vorticity to the Atlantic. Whether something pops is anyone’s guess. It’s far more complicated than I just described. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor4/wg8vor4_loop.html In recent years some of our big dog storms in the Atlantic (Michael/Ida) have come from a CAG. Not saying that’ll happen here but a spin up in the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf would be primed since you have high end OHC and would probably need a low shear environment for even a seedling to organize. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s coming! https://x.com/usawx/status/1694390011368489353?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Adios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Could be pretty wet next week 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Absolutely wild to record a wind gust that high 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Need the Euro to follow the Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Need the Euro to follow the Canadian Don't do it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Interesting scenarios for that trough interaction. That will be the thing to watch in the coming model runs. Transitioning TC fooling with guidance at this lead time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't do it. Here he comes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 I’m not even going to look at maps. That’s automatically the kiss of death for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Don't do it. I’m not. I do think something’s going to lift into the Gulf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Interesting scenarios for that trough interaction. That will be the thing to watch in the coming model runs. Transitioning TC fooling with guidance at this lead time. Still worth watching Franklin up there, though it looks like we may be settling on more Newfoundland impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 For our Atlantic Canada folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Absolutely wild to record a wind gust that high Best. Storm. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Crazy how just a few days before Andrew landfall, it weakened from a 50mph TS to a diffuse low Classified as a tropical storm (but Pressure of 1015 mb ) in SW Atlantic (north of islands ). Then BOOM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Crazy how just a few days before Andrew landfall, it weakened from a 50mph TS to a diffuse low Classified as a tropical storm (but Pressure of 1015 mb ) in SW Atlantic (north of islands ). Then BOOM All the Cat 5’s to hit the US were TS three days before landfall. That’s incredible to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Ironic that one's perspective changes. 10 years ago or there about I wanted to experience a Major Hurricane. TODAY- no friggin way. Since moving here even the brushed by tropical systems packed a punch, (lucky I guess) there is one out there. I kind of like my possessions, property and especially my life. Here the storms are different than in the northern clims. More often than not they're sheared out weakening systems moving at highway speeds once getting to SNE's latitude. Franklin has been well modelled. Not the set-up conducive for a New England LF. This threat that the EURO has been showing has potential and of course the GFS is OTL just now picking it up. The GOM's SST are rocket fuel. Worse scenario- UL trough moves W, shear abates, and the system explodes. LF in FL. with the E. Coast abused then makes another LF in or around L.I. Not a forecast but it is possible! My interest is piqued. Should be interesting for the next 3 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: All the Cat 5’s to hit the US were TS three days before landfall. That’s incredible to me. Unlike some West Pac TCs, Atlantic hurricanes seldom remain at Cat 5 for more than 1-2 days, so the intensification has to be perfectly timed for a Cat 5 landfall. Also, unlike the much of the West Pac region, the GOM and southern US Atlantic coasts have relatively shallow depths extending significant distances offshore, which may decrease intensity before landfall here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 @WxWatcher007 Are there any products out there which are good to assess with forecasting wind shear? I know they have the shear maps and shear tendency maps on spaghetti models, but what about for forecasting shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: @WxWatcher007 Are there any products out there which are good to assess with forecasting wind shear? I know they have the shear maps and shear tendency maps on spaghetti models, but what about for forecasting shear? On TT I like using 200-850mb wind shear, and the same 200-850mb wind shear anomaly plot for pattern recognition. Going deeper, I love using the 355k Potential Vorticity plots as well to recognize TUTT development/movement/strength. Of course, you have the averaged soundings that can be used as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 I had no idea when I did my peak forecast and said that the US would have another MH landfall this season that one would threaten a week later I always saw potential with the last week of August though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I had no idea when I did my peak forecast and said that the US would have another MH landfall this season that one would threaten a week later I always saw potential with the last week of August though... I wonder if that gulf system will have a shot to go to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I wonder if that gulf system will have a shot to go to town It absolutely has a chance, though I’m not sure if it gets there. NOAA throwing all the recon it has at this one starting tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It absolutely has a chance, though I’m not sure if it gets there. NOAA throwing all the recon it has at this one starting tomorrow. Some models show the NE winds over the N Gulf (Around the E Texas high pressure ) try to bring down some of that drier air From northern gulf (seen on water vapor ) and entrain it into the system (particularly the west side) which seems to inhibit it . We know that it’s structure has developed ahead of schedule , and I think watching to see if it can avoid getting dry air trained will be key to this over-performing , assuming it doesn’t meander over land in next day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Some models show the NE winds over the N Gulf (Around the E Texas high pressure ) try to bring down some of that drier air From northern gulf (seen on water vapor ) and entrain it into the system (particularly the west side) which seems to inhibit it . We know that it’s structure has developed ahead of schedule , and I think watching to see if it can avoid getting dry air trained will be key to this over-performing , assuming it doesn’t meander over land in next day or so Certainly possible that continental dry air causes disruption, but I think it’s less of a risk here than usual because there doesn’t look to be enough shear to impart it on a system that should be relatively organized and therefore more resistant to the shear. The upper level trough looks weak in a few days and if anything I think it’ll promote ventilation/outflow. Let’s say it doesn’t though. If future Idalia is able to build an organized core as it enters the Gulf, the outflow should be able to blunt the influence of shear and dry air. I think that’s why models are basically unanimous in having this intensify through landfall. That’s a huge flag to me that this has a higher ceiling. The possibility of land interaction the next 36 hours or so is really critical to the track and intensity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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