weatherwiz Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Joaquin or Hermine? If it missed I don’t remember it I think we ended up getting some rain from that at some point. It just circled like an aircraft in a holding pattern for several days then came close enough and I think an approaching trough drew in some moisture. I don't even remember if it even directly impacted the SE/mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think we ended up getting some rain from that at some point. It just circled like an aircraft in a holding pattern for several days then came close enough and I think an approaching trough drew in some moisture. I don't even remember if it even directly impacted the SE/mid-Atlantic Hermine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hermine hmmm guess it was but I didn't recall that storm having that track. I thought it was more like this...like the fujiwara was off the SE coast. But yeah my memory isn't that good anymore...seems like the past decade everything just starts blending together. Must be getting old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Bottom line..SNE is a very rare tropical hit zone. It’s not Zero obviously, but a quarter century plus between hits is common place. The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal. Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes. Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years). Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). ---------------- 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 38 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal. Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes. Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years). Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). ---------------- Great stuff. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 39 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal. Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes. Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years). Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). ---------------- This is really excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: I'm still keeping an eye on it 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Boring AF 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boring AF Good time of the year for boring. Crisp, cool fall like morning FTW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boring AF Yup. We are due though. It only takes one. But agreed…boring for sure. But that’s what it usually is in late august. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup. We are due though. It only takes one. But agreed…boring for sure. But that’s what it usually is in late august. Especially with all the global warming going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Yup. We are due though. It only takes one. But agreed…boring for sure. But that’s what it usually is in late august. Roll the dice enough times. I think some of the pre 1850 storms my have been misclassified as hurricanes. Things like derechos and hybrid/nor’easters. Not all but some. The real reoccurrence rate of a landfalling hurricane in the north east may be a little bit lower than what’s currently suggested. Still, there were some that were obviously majors like the great colonial, 1815 and of course 38. That’s the one I think we are really do for. Not as much weakening inducing cooler water protecting Long Island and New England anymore. So it’s just a matter of when. meanwhile, Franklin is looking excellent for a medium to large swell for early next week. That period where it’s moving north will produce some captured fetch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 20 hours ago, CCHurricane said: The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal. Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes. Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years). Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). ---------------- This statistical overview has to do with at or > hurricane declarations? Earlier/recently in this thread there was discussion elucidating that while hurricane "drought" is noted, the advent of TC with lesser intensity may have actually improved over recent decades - since ~ 2000. This was speculation, mind you - no declaration is being made. It's more of a curiosity where it seems so, and if so ... why. Less hurricane in lieu of > frequency of forgettables. Interesting if the number bear that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Boring AF cmc ? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: cmc ? Lol I haven't rebuilt yet from all the CMC hurricanes. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: This statistical overview has to do with at or > hurricane declarations? Earlier/recently in this thread there was discussion elucidating that while hurricane "drought" is noted, the advent of TC with lesser intensity has improved over recent decades - since ~ 2000. This was speculation, mind you - no declaration is being made. It's more of a curiosity where it seems so, and if so ... why. Less hurricane in lieu of > frequency of forgettables. Interesting if the number bear that out. Correct, the statistical overview (chart) and first bullet point represents at least Hurricane strength at impact. Really interesting conversation either way, particularly related to memory and behavioral biases! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 It's a matter of time until we get hit 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: Correct, the statistical overview (chart) and first bullet point represents at least Hurricane strength at impact. Really interesting conversation either way, particularly related to memory and behavioral biases! well, to be clear. The hurricane numbers 'matches' the memory pretty well. we were speaking about the increased - apparently so ... - of sub category TCs to affect the upper MA/NE regions. this latter aspects is the point of interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: cmc ? Lol Hah that's a wild solution, closed h5 low comes in hot and really digs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's a matter of time until we get hit you will be on the west side of the storm with epic flooding but only mid winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Euro forming something but hits Florida then back out into the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: you will be on the west side of the storm with epic flooding but only mid winds Not with Sandy he wasn’t. Ya never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Didn’t look at the video…but ya know that’s Good old Andrew…Homestead, FL got absolutely flattened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Didn’t look at the video…but ya know that’s Good old Andrew…Homestead, FL got absolutely flattened. Just a nite of terror as sunsets , if your watching from Miami or even Fort Lauderdale ..your praying for every wobble in the wee hours that determines if you have a livable structure at sunrise . Downtown Miami escaped total carnage by 15 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 My family spent 2 weeks in a big rental house. Twice. Late 1970s. Harwichport. The models are coming my way. Nantucket cane, its not an outlier, it is the beginning of a trend. My first time drunk. My parents went out, I had found the owner's Manischewitz. Not a big bottle, but 15 or 16, never drank before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: My family spent 2 weeks in a big rental house. Twice. Late 1970s. Harwichport. The models are coming my way. Nantucket cane, its not an outlier, it is the beginning of a trend. My first time drunk. My parents went out, I had found the owner's Manischewitz. Not a big bottle, but 15 or 16, never drank before. Seems like you’re drinking now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like you’re drinking now. Just 2 beers after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 47 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: My family spent 2 weeks in a big rental house. Twice. Late 1970s. Harwichport. The models are coming my way. Nantucket cane, its not an outlier, it is the beginning of a trend. My first time drunk. My parents went out, I had found the owner's Manischewitz. Not a big bottle, but 15 or 16, never drank before. 968mb on tropical tidbits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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