2023 - tracking the tropics

[dryslot]

Lee is down to 948MB from 950mb as of the previous advisory,  So its strengthening some from earlier.

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yes, great post. It's important to understand this in great depth. 

I mean... whence the transition happens, or we are just flat out dealing with a nor'easter ...there are a couple aspect immediately/physically taking place that limit wind - particularly on the western-NW arc.

The air is stablizing in that sector, with cold entrainment cutting under the TC's circumvallet.  That lifts the wind field off the deck ... hasta la vista style. 

The barotropic model remains well ( better..) mixed with plenty of 'momentum transfer' and well ... TC are a lower tropospheric coupled model solution - particularly preferential to the warm ocean; that is in fact considered a quasi-coupled machinery. It really it's a miracle of nature on Earth that all that OHC can have a machinery available to directly exhaust that yato yato yato scaled heat storage.  

Anyway, baroclinic systems are not coupled nearly as proficiently ...though the warm sector itself can certainly do interesting things when the Warm conveyor belt is gradient pinched into a fire hose and a squalline then mixes that down.  I've see 60 mph winds along those ribbon echo babes October before....  rare though.

[Spaizzo]

This is exactly what I was getting at with that post I made a few weeks back about colder waters. A slow moving storm is going to weaken and transition pretty quickly. 

How cold would they ned to be? Serious question as we are watching closely. NC waters are still in the 80s even up to almost DE


.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

How cold would they ned to be? Serious question as we are watching closely. NC waters are still in the 80s even up to almost DE


.

Lee would largely miss those warmer waters (assuming anyways). Historically, to get a significant cane to make landfall up here you need it to be hauling as it would have less time to weaken between being off the Carolina coast and a landfall up here. 

A slower moving storm traversing these colder waters though will give the storm ample time to undergo internal structural changes and evolution from tropical to ET

[Cyclone-68]

Can we get a good PRE? That’s the major question lol 

[toller65]

This can't be ignored, but let's see we got TS wind gusts across a large part of the region as a result of an expanded wind field. Given the very saturated grounds and fully leaved trees power outages would be a greater concern than usual for winds that we usually see several times in the late fall/winter. 

This

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, Spaizzo said:

West side if we were to be brushed. Lots of rain? Sorry after Irene I wouldn’t wish that rain inundation on anyone. Down here we’ve had some really good torrential rains the past day. More rain to come and in more rain and a little wind trees toppling due to moist ground would be my concern here. The flooding VT and other areas got during Irene the scars are still evident driving from Greenfield to Wilmington/Dover area. One thing I wouldn’t want to wish on anyone.


.

Don't forget we had that really rainy period in September right after Sandy. I lived by Thomaston Dam at the time, it was the second highest the water level ever got there. They let it out into Black Rock Lake and the water was halfway up a steeply inclined road that's no longer used. Crazy times.

[MJO812]

Enjoy up there

We will not even see a drop of rain from Lee down here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Enjoy up there

We will not even see a drop of rain from Lee down here.

Preview of NYC winter?

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah because I want a hurricane to wreck my house. 

The people who want to see "big damage" simply do not understand and/or downplay the devastation that a redux of 38 would cause.  They vastly underestimate the time it would take to get fully back to normal. They assume it would be a matter of a few days. The reality is the vast majority of people in New England are ill prepared for anything remotely resembling a redux of 1938. 

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The people who want to see "big damage" simply do not understand and/or downplay the devastation that a redux of 38 would cause.  They vastly underestimate the time it would take to get fully back to normal. They assume it would be a matter of a few days. The reality is the vast majority of people in New England are ill prepared for anything remotely resembling a redux of 1938. 

mm.  I know what your getting at but there's probably dubious morality there, too -

[Typhoon Tip]

Ho man...  'cane enthusiasts can't win.  The next one by the GFS looks to get even more agonizingly close yet still missing -

[Typhoon Tip]

Getting close to that time of the tropical season where I start hearing that voice in my head begging to just get past this p.o.s. journey and make it winter already. LOL

[CoastalWx]

GFS gives weenies hope.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS gives weenies hope.

Not much 

this looks like it may Kiss the W end of NS to me or do a little loop 100 Miles E of ACK

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not much 

this looks like it may Kiss the W end of NS to me or do a little loop 100 Miles E of ACK

It brings it in here but doing so in an unlikely to verify synopsis - tossed

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting close to that time of the tropical season where I start hearing that voice in my head begging to just get past this p.o.s. journey and make it winter already. LOL

At least with tropical you always know you’re out. With winter everyone endures misses and misery, week after week after week. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not much 

this looks like it may Kiss the W end of NS to me or do a little loop 100 Miles E of ACK

 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It brings it in hear but doing so in an unlikely to verify synopsis - tossed

You mean it won't stall over SNE??

[Great Snow 1717]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting close to that time of the tropical season where I start hearing that voice in my head begging to just get past this p.o.s. journey and make it winter already. LOL

The period May 1st to October 1st is usually nothing more than a total bore fest...so I'm hearing that same voice in my head. Although some people here may assume I hear voices in my head much of the time!...but I can assure them that isn't the case!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

You mean it won't stall over SNE??

I was just wondering what the rain totals there would be  

After the summer we've had ... ?   dumpster boats

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Preview of NYC winter?

You know it!

[JC-CT]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

You mean it won't stall over SNE??

GFS heard you bro, said hold my beer

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS really hates y'all. If Lee misses Nigel doesn't. 

[MJOatleast7]

I honestly couldn't give a crap if we "get" Lee or Invest 97. I have no taste for weather spectacle IMBY especially where so many people have had so much damage this summer. My interest in tropical systems now begins and ends with how much ACE we can get this season. Positive correlation with BOS snowfall, after all. If a few more intense systems form anywhere in the NAtl basin and have some good duration, even if it's over the fish, that's fine with me.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, MJOatleast7 said:

I honestly couldn't give a crap if we "get" Lee or Invest 97. I have no taste for weather spectacle IMBY especially where so many people have had so much damage this summer. My interest in tropical systems now begins and ends with how much ACE we can get this season. Positive correlation with BOS snowfall, after all. If a few more intense systems form anywhere in the NAtl basin and have some good duration, even if it's over the fish, that's fine with me.

Pretty good chance of AN ACE this season given where we are now. 

[Eskimo Joe]

One thing to note - the GFS has been advertising Nigel or whatever system is behind Lee to start west of 70W for much longer. System that do so tend to have a higher percentage of affect the east coast of the US more it seems.

[ineedsnow]

if Margot wasnt around the Euro would have been much further west with storm 2

[bristolri_wx]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Lee would largely miss those warmer waters (assuming anyways). Historically, to get a significant cane to make landfall up here you need it to be hauling as it would have less time to weaken between being off the Carolina coast and a landfall up here. 

A slower moving storm traversing these colder waters though will give the storm ample time to undergo internal structural changes and evolution from tropical to ET

Agreed, and you provided a better map...

 

 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

Agreed, and you provided a better map...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/?app=core&module=system&controller=content&do=find&content_class=forums_Topic&content_id=59186&content_commentid=7001037

 

missed that post! 

I think we saw something similar with the storm that came up a few years back. Ended up making landfall somewhere along Long Island. I remember there were some aggressive calls (from myself included) for stronger winds and even a LF hurricane, but it was clear the slower speed over the colder waters was going to yield big weakening and structural changes

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

if Margot wasnt around the Euro would have been much further west with storm 2

Bingo