WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Euro has bounced around hundreds of miles between 00z yesterday, 12z yesterday, 00z this morning, and 12z this afternoon. I’d guess the EPS ticks a little west, but the op runs are zero confidence right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He posted before he’d want to see Euro/ EPS come west and he’s become interested. 1-1 so far Nobody does any analysis. Sure it’s not 0%, but man it has work to do outside of a Cape brush. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 18z best track has Lee a cat 3 again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling. The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going? It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane. I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%. Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nobody does any analysis. Sure it’s not 0%, but man it has work to do outside of a Cape brush. I think a CC or maybe S RI is as far west as it can get unfortunately. I have a place to stay in the Cape should it hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 EPS coming west but not enough yet.. looks to be some good members though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: EPS coming west but not enough yet.. looks to be some good members though Scoots in S Wey may see the right front quadrant when all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 wont have to be close to this for flooding rains even if it goes just off the cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: wont have to be close to this for flooding rains even if it goes just off the cape Probably get a PRE event too ahead of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Regardless of eventual track. East facing coastal beaches, WOAH! 20-30' breakers almost certain to make for a Photo Op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Childude645 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 wont have to be close to this for flooding rains even if it goes just off the capeYea I’m expecting heavy rains here on the vineyard and on Nantucket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Childude645 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 I think a CC or maybe S RI is as far west as it can get unfortunately. I have a place to stay in the Cape should it hit You’d drive to the cape if it was gunna hit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Childude645 said: You’d drive to the cape if it was gunna hit? nah who does that?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Childude645 said: You’d drive to the cape if it was gunna hit? 2:10 minutes to the house. Sure would 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 With the rain forecast this week any kind of a brush is asking for trouble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: With the rain forecast this week any kind of a brush is asking for trouble. even better if it were to hit it wouldnt take much wind with saturated ground to start knocking over some trees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 This isn't a situation where you just want to see slight ticks west...you really want to see a significant jump east. And by significant I mean more than just an OP run or a few ens members. There is substantial work to get such a significant jump. The window certainly isn't closed, but its just about fully shut. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Tropical models shifting west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: This isn't a situation where you just want to see slight ticks west...you really want to see a significant jump east. And by significant I mean more than just an OP run or a few ens members. There is substantial work to get such a significant jump. The window certainly isn't closed, but its just about fully shut. we did.. look at the eps and gefs members compared to last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: we did.. look at the eps and gefs members compared to last night Yep everything shifting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Tropical models shifting west ya I saw that only a matter of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: ya I saw that only a matter of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said: I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling. The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going? It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane. I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%. Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening. LOL I got weenied for this? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: This isn't a situation where you just want to see slight ticks west...you really want to see a significant jump east. And by significant I mean more than just an OP run or a few ens members. There is substantial work to get such a significant jump. The window certainly isn't closed, but its just about fully shut. You meant sig jump west, but yeah you're right. Need that eastern side to start jumping ship very very far west and soon 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: even better if it were to hit it wouldnt take much wind with saturated ground to start knocking over some trees That’s how 38 was. Wet humid summer like this one and heavy rains week prior . If not Lee it’ll be the next one later following week . One way or another, it’s coming 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Let me know when the storm is forecasted to move here. Long way to go... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: we did.. look at the eps and gefs members compared to last night eh I just don't think it's enough. IMO you want to see several members well west. We're starting to get into the range where the models aren't going to be too far off from the synoptic evolution. I do think there is a chance portions of Maine could see some rain and gusty winds but that's pretty much it. The wave off Africa which the GFS slams us with down the road may have better potential given its starting off much farther south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: eh I just don't think it's enough. IMO you want to see several members well west. We're starting to get into the range where the models aren't going to be too far off from the synoptic evolution. I do think there is a chance portions of Maine could see some rain and gusty winds but that's pretty much it. The wave off Africa which the GFS slams us with down the road may have better potential given its starting off much farther south. IDK looked pretty far west to me from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s how 38 of as. Wet humid summer like this one and heavy rains week prior . If not Lee it’ll be the first ne later following week . One way or another, it’s coming That second storm has a much more of a track that has New England possibilities for landfall. If that one forms like the GFS is hinting at, we'll need to watch it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Yeah... it really needs to cross that 70' threshold... or further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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