2023 - tracking the tropics

[ROOSTA]

Known as the Gandolf effect, "Thow shall not pass," -70W I don't believe for a second, the stall is plausible.  
Still time as the Long-wave pattern re-orients. Come back in 5 days, guaranteed all will change.
Believe what you see but don't give it a definitive - this is going OTS.    

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He says he's a meteorologist but posting crap.

Arrest him 

[tamarack]

18 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Sandy was a once in 250 year event so I would think that checked everyone's box who is reading this board

Unless we're too far north - nice 2-3" RA event, little wind.  However, despite no bullseyes, I've experienced a lot of 'cane action.
1954, the year of "relative" canes:
     Carol (cousin) - non-event in NNJ
     Edna (aunt) - little RA, brisk wind; brother, dad and I flew kites
     Hazel (great aunt) - gusts ~60, plastered the house with leaf salad.  (In my "2nd echelon" of strong winds, with Bob and April 1982.  1st echelon:  Nov 1950, NY Eve 1962)

1955, the floods
     Connie - 6-8", moderate flooding here
     Diane - 2-3", missed the big rains by <20 miles, where 6"+ got dumped.

1960, Donna, not quite in the 2nd group, half day at school, friend broke his sailboat's mast while being foolish.

1971, Doria, winds like Donna, 5.1" RA most in a 2-hr period.  With 3.8" from PRE, 8.9" in <24 hr.  Minor flooding as it had been dry.

1976, Belle - little wind, major flooding rains in N. Maine

1985, Gloria - nice fall storm in Ft. Kent, major infrastructure damage midcoast to AUG.

1991, Bob - Gusts 60+, 6.41" RA, trees felled in opposite direction after the wind shift

1999, Floyd - 5.88", low-end trop-force wind

2010, Earl - much needed 2.27" after dry August, no wind

2011, Irene - 4.37" RA here and no flooding, 8"+ Sugarloaf region, Carrabassett's 3rd greatest peak flow, 1926 on.

Had some modest rains from leftovers since 2011 but none worth individual noting.
 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Looks better to me this am then at sunset yesterday . It’s growing it’s core and expanding and unless sheer picks up again ..I think we will be sub 935 MB wise Sunday 1pm kickoffs  . 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's been doing that coughing CB's routine this morning

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Unless we're too far north - nice 2-3" RA event, little wind.  However, despite no bullseyes, I've experienced a lot of 'cane action.
1954, the year of "relative" canes:
     Carol (cousin) - non-event in NNJ
     Edna (aunt) - little RA, brisk wind; brother, dad and I flew kites
     Hazel (great aunt) - gusts ~60, plastered the house with leaf salad.  (In my "2nd echelon" of strong winds, with Bob and April 1982.  1st echelon:  Nov 1950, NY Eve 1962)

1955, the floods
     Connie - 6-8", moderate flooding here
     Diane - 2-3", missed the big rains by <20 miles, where 6"+ got dumped.

1960, Donna, not quite in the 2nd group, half day at school, friend broke his sailboat's mast while being foolish.

1971, Doria, winds like Donna, 5.1" RA most in a 2-hr period.  With 3.8" from PRE, 8.9" in <24 hr.  Minor flooding as it had been dry.

1976, Belle - little wind, major flooding rains in N. Maine

1985, Gloria - nice fall storm in Ft. Kent, major infrastructure damage midcoast to AUG.

1991, Bob - Gusts 60+, 6.41" RA, trees felled in opposite direction after the wind shift

1999, Floyd - 5.88", low-end trop-force wind

2010, Earl - much needed 2.27" after dry August, no wind

2011, Irene - 4.37" RA here and no flooding, 8"+ Sugarloaf region, Carrabassett's 3rd greatest peak flow, 1926 on.

Had some modest rains from leftovers since 2011 but none worth individual noting.
 

Nice recap, here’s my limited experience 

Gloria 85 - Remember many trees down, no school for a few days

 Bob 91 - was working in Rhinebeck NY, not much there, mostly SE Mass Storm.

Irene 11 - some tree damage in NE CT, power down for 4 days.

Sandy- lost power for 4 days in NE CT, some limbs down

Matthew - First S FL Hurricane, 5” of rain, some palm frawns down, power down for 36 hrs

Irma - 7” of rain, power down for 4 hours (FL&P flocking rocks) 

Dorian - That monster Sat 75 miles to my east in the Bahamas, ready to send the family north to safety.

Michael - Pan Handle work recovery, got to experience true CAT 5 aftermaths, breathtakingly sad and amazing.

Ian - fringed but still got 5” of rain and r plenty of yard debris. Peace out of FL after that

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Known as the Gandolf effect, "Thow shall not pass," -70W I don't believe for a second, the stall is plausible.  
Still time as the Long-wave pattern re-orients. Come back in 5 days, guaranteed all will change.
Believe what you see but don't give it a definitive - this is going OTS.    

This is going OTS.

[weathafella]

35 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Unless we're too far north - nice 2-3" RA event, little wind.  However, despite no bullseyes, I've experienced a lot of 'cane action.
1954, the year of "relative" canes:
     Carol (cousin) - non-event in NNJ
     Edna (aunt) - little RA, brisk wind; brother, dad and I flew kites
     Hazel (great aunt) - gusts ~60, plastered the house with leaf salad.  (In my "2nd echelon" of strong winds, with Bob and April 1982.  1st echelon:  Nov 1950, NY Eve 1962)

1955, the floods
     Connie - 6-8", moderate flooding here
     Diane - 2-3", missed the big rains by <20 miles, where 6"+ got dumped.

1960, Donna, not quite in the 2nd group, half day at school, friend broke his sailboat's mast while being foolish.

1971, Doria, winds like Donna, 5.1" RA most in a 2-hr period.  With 3.8" from PRE, 8.9" in <24 hr.  Minor flooding as it had been dry.

1976, Belle - little wind, major flooding rains in N. Maine

1985, Gloria - nice fall storm in Ft. Kent, major infrastructure damage midcoast to AUG.

1991, Bob - Gusts 60+, 6.41" RA, trees felled in opposite direction after the wind shift

1999, Floyd - 5.88", low-end trop-force wind

2010, Earl - much needed 2.27" after dry August, no wind

2011, Irene - 4.37" RA here and no flooding, 8"+ Sugarloaf region, Carrabassett's 3rd greatest peak flow, 1926 on.

Had some modest rains from leftovers since 2011 but none worth individual noting.
 

Great summary Tom!   Pretty much matches my experiences although I was east of you so the wind effects were often bigger especially with Hazel.  I happened to be at the shore for Doria-that was fun.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks better to me this am then at sunset yesterday . It’s growing it’s core and expanding and unless sheer picks up again ..I think we will be sub 935 MB wise Sunday 1pm kickoffs  . 

Guess I was wrong . Weak- moderate  cat 2 maybe at 11am

[tamarack]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Great summary Tom!   Pretty much matches my experiences although I was east of you so the wind effects were often bigger especially with Hazel.  I happened to be at the shore for Doria-that was fun.

Doria might be the most memorable after Belle.  During Belle we spent the evening diverting flood waters (from a swollen brook that was normally only 3' wide) to save the neighbor's apartment house.  Doria came ja bit over 2 months after our marriage.  The racket woke me about 2 AM at the height of the storm.  I turned on the patio light (we then lived in garden apts in Lake Hiawatha) and noted the cheap wedge gauge almost to the 4" line with only another inch of freeboard, so I donned my poncho and went out to empty the gauge.  I tried to be quiet, but merely opening the door tripled the decibel level, awakening my wife and confirming for her that I was more than a bit crazy.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Doria might be the most memorable after Belle.  During Belle we spent the evening diverting flood waters (from a swollen brook that was normally only 3' wide) to save the neighbor's apartment house.  Doria came ja bit over 2 months after our marriage.  The racket woke me about 2 AM at the height of the storm.  I turned on the patio light (we then lived in garden apts in Lake Hiawatha) and noted the cheap wedge gauge almost to the 4" line with only another inch of freeboard, so I donned my poncho and went out to empty the gauge.  I tried to be quiet, but merely opening the door tripled the decibel level, awakening my wife and confirming for her that I was more than a bit crazy.

Lol….our wives find out quickly that they signed onto some crazy.  My experience has been through more than one marriage the wives end up being weenies to a degree.   We were not yet married so my future (now departed) wife’s parents had me sleeping in the back house during Doria at Belmar near the beach.  That was a wild night!  The next day I was itching to body surf but they wouldn’t let anyone in the water until things calmed down the next day.

[WxWatcher007]

28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Guess I was wrong . Weak- moderate  cat 2 maybe at 11am

Nah, borderline 3 based on recon. Elliptical eye. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I called someone out. This guy acting tough lol

That’s insane there is nothing to support this being anything close to Sandy. Even the guidance that is the closest just gives us a lot of rain, not a direct hit landfall. 

[MJO812]

Just now, George001 said:

That’s insane there is nothing to support this being anything close to Sandy. Even the guidance that is the closest just gives us a lot of rain, not a direct hit landfall. 

It's really bad this week with false info all over social media in regards to Lee.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

NHC isn’t even confident in the environmental conditions for LEE next 4 days . Gfs and hurricane models say conducive but euro and Ukie say not so much. 

[CoastalWx]

It looks like ass. Cat 5 looking at the bar after 12 beers and now this is what you wake up to the morning after. 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It looks like ass. Cat 5 looking at the bar after 12 beers and now this is what you wake up to the morning after. 

I'm not under the impression that the greater guidance envelope really saw this coming -

the CB pulse routine actually tends to happen when a cane moves over cooler interface waters and is in the process of being cut off from fuel.  Obviously ...it's not over marginal SST/OHE, but something ( dry air entrainment ? ) must be interfering.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not under the impression that the greater guidance envelope really saw this coming -

the CB pulse routine actually tends to happen when a cane moves over cooler interface waters and is in the process of being cut off from fuel.  Obviously ...it's not over marginal SST/OHE, but something ( dry air entrainment ? ) must be interfering.

At least people can quiet down now. It looked great for 12hrs lol. 

[bristolri_wx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least people can quiet down now. It looked great for 12hrs lol. 

I believe the term for what Lee has is “Premature Intensification”. There are medications and therapies that can help.

[WxWatcher007]

This place is so dumb lol

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's really bad this week with false info all over social media in regards to Lee.

 

That place is dumber  

[CoastalWx]

Why is this place dumb? 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why is this place dumb? 

I’m being sensitive. I want all analysis all the time for tropical and that’s not how this site works for any type of wx, especially when there’s really nothing new to discuss. Even with new model runs, nothing has really changed much. 

It’s obviously in a significantly degraded form compared to being a cat 5, but I think recon today shows that Lee has been more resilient than IR would generally suggest. I think it’ll intensify again should shear abate some, and I think the shear will. 

[drstuess]

It may be delusion and i have said it a few times in my head already, but last couple frames look like it's improving a bit from my naive view.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

Seems like guidance et al wants to rush the next one into contention, huh

Whence Lee completes its agonizingly obvious ... by then we're already got an impressive TC possibly approaching the 'key-slot'

Which by the way, Lee missed that to the NE - just sayn'

[JC-CT]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why is this place dumb? 

I mostly blame the nyc subforum

[Chrisrotary12]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude it’s over. It’s been over.

It never started.

[WxWatcher007]

Not really a believer in that one being a contender. They’ll be a weakness somewhere. 

Homebrew or bust.

[George001]

Sometimes, just going with climo is the way to go. Just like how we should be skeptical of the models showing a 10 day blizzard in November, we should be skeptical of any guidance that shows a 10 day cat 2-hurricane landfalling in SNE. Climo doesn’t support that, and when it comes down to climo vs model forecasts, 99/100 times climo wins out. 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Sometimes, just going with climo is the way to go. Just like how we should be skeptical of the models showing a 10 day blizzard in November, we should be skeptical of any guidance that shows a 10 day cat 2-hurricane landfalling in SNE. Climo doesn’t support that, and when it comes down to climo vs model forecasts, 99/100 times climo wins out. 

Nino ENSO also tends to favor MDR recurves. It’s not a surprise, other than it was a good synoptic pattern with a storm going north too far east. This is a very different conversation of this got to 75W but we deal in reality not what ifs. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m being sensitive. I want all analysis all the time for tropical and that’s not how this site works for any type of wx, especially when there’s really nothing new to discuss. Even with new model runs, nothing has really changed much. 

It’s obviously in a significantly degraded form compared to being a cat 5, but I think recon today shows that Lee has been more resilient than IR would generally suggest. I think it’ll intensify again should shear abate some, and I think the shear will. 

That is my scientific analysis. It looks like ass. I don’t need recon, SFMR, or Quikscat to tell me that.