Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 4:37 PM, ineedsnow said: Maybe the GEFS suck everyone back in Expand Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 4:40 PM, WeatherHappens said: No! I won't be sucked back in....But what is it showing? lol Expand Not out far enough yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 4:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yup Expand According to EffyouWeather we should be... alerts going off on everyones phones 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 4:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Expand It may be just me, But i think i would thoroughly enjoy if the NE quad of Lee ripped right over Tblizz head over to Lavarock. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 4:49 PM, dryslot said: It may be just me, But i think i would thoroughly enjoy if the NE quad of Lee ripped right over Tblizz head over to Lavarock. Expand As long as they are the only ones to get rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 12z GEFS laughs at the 12z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 5:03 PM, dryslot said: 12z GEFS laughs at the 12z GFS. Expand What does it find so funny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 5:05 PM, WeatherHappens said: What does it find so funny? Expand 12z GFS is an outlier, Its going to be similar to the 06z GEFS run even a tick or two east in regards to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 If this goes on to do what the GFS general theme over the last 32 cycles ... has been unable to deviate from showing, this will be a first in modeling history that any guidance was so exactingly correct from 13 days lead ... - or whatever/how-many days it's been. That theme has not deviated enough to consider any other track - not really. Gee, we wonder if it will pull that off when it shows a coastal bomb in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Telecon spread still says it's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Going to need to see more members on the western side as well as some inland tracks to move the needle here at some point for a higher probability chance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 5:14 PM, dryslot said: Going to need to see more members on the western side as well as some inland tracks to move the needle here at some point for a higher probability chance.. Expand I'm gonna beat Kevin to it....The West Trend has started it's coming lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Wait..not being sarcastic but I thought this threat was effectively over as of this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 5:26 PM, Cyclone-68 said: Wait..not being sarcastic but I thought this threat was effectively over as of this morning? Expand Decent lapse rates, both mid-level and low-level, combined with adequate shear, and mixed-layer CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...there will be some nasty cells today. EDIT: whoops, thought I was in the main thread 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 People should probably let this go and enjoy the potential last real summery weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 5:30 PM, weatherwiz said: Decent lapse rates, both mid-level and low-level, combined with adequate shear, and mixed-layer CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...there will be some nasty cells today. EDIT: whoops, thought I was in the main thread Expand That’s ok. This is what I call a “happy mistake” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Some great guidelines on SNE canes here. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 5:09 PM, Typhoon Tip said: If this goes on to do what the GFS general theme over the last 32 cycles ... has been unable to deviate from showing, this will be a first in modeling history that any guidance was so exactingly correct from 13 days lead ... - or whatever/how-many days it's been. That theme has not deviated enough to consider any other track - not really. Gee, we wonder if it will pull that off when it shows a coastal bomb in the winter. Expand If the modeled large scale winter pattern was consistently modeled and never really deviated, then I would suggest it would do ok with the expected winter storm. I never saw the GFS or European forecast a large scale pattern developing that would have been favorable for Lee to make a LF... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 12z euro is even slooower than 0z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 6:03 PM, FXWX said: If the modeled large scale winter pattern was consistently modeled and never really deviated, then I would suggest it would do ok with the expected winter storm. I never saw the GFS or European forecast a large scale pattern developing that would have been favorable for Lee to make a LF... Expand Nope, never did. I'm impressed for two reasons: ...the consistency from get go - many days. Picking this up at D12 and never deviating - granted, there are more days to come. Wrt tropics no less. The other aspect is a bit more abstract - this is all going on in a hemisphere where the AAM was switching from + to -, also reflected in a mode flips of both the PNA (positive) and NAO, (negative) this next week. That type of relay opens the door for trends to take place in the materialized guidance ... nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 6:38 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: 12z euro is even slooower than 0z . Expand Good bye and good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Shit the euro looks to be joining the other models with a track into sw NS. Welp...I guess I'll start my yearly Hurricane preparations. Grrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 6:47 PM, CoastalWx said: Good bye and good luck Expand yep earlier turn NNE and OTS well east of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 6:51 PM, Brian5671 said: yep earlier turn NNE and OTS well east of New England Expand Well It’s closer than the waaaay out to sea 0z run as there is no kicker over sne like that run had 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 6:54 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well It’s closer than the waaaay out to sea 0z run as there is no kicker over sne like that run had Expand That trough at hr 156 effs us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 The thing saving southern New England according to the models is Margot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 6:56 PM, hurricaneman said: The thing saving southern New England according to the models is Margot Expand Meh , probably having the SW corner of the Atlantic ridge End at 70w effs us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 6:51 PM, Hazey said: Shit the euro looks to be joining the other models with a track into sw NS. Welp...I guess I'll start my yearly Hurricane preparations. Grrr. Expand You’re basically Louisiana now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Don’t worry @Hazey, we get these all the time. Just a breezy nor’easter from what I’ve been told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 7:16 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Don’t worry @Hazey, we get these all the time. Just a breezy nor’easter from what I’ve been told. Expand That would be the worst possible placement for the Halifax-Dartmouth area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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