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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

May be a wash with Margot to the east. I think @CoastalWx mentioned that the models account for that though. 

A turn before 70W has been one of the most consistent forecasts across guidance. They'd all need to be underdoing the ridge for a much later turn, which is possible but unlikely IMO.  

models account for it but Lee is stronger now  

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

She gone GFS

Is west of 18z now landfalling in western Nova Scotia Maine border just east of the 12z Euro but the fact that the models seem to be adjusting west should be cause for concern in terms of sensible weather.

on the Euro path hurricane wind gust would probably hit eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire with Maine getting the lions share of wind damage and surge

The current GFS would give maybe no more than a typical nor’easter conditions in eastern Massachusetts and New Hampshire with hurricane winds in Maine

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2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Say what you will, that was obviously the best looking GFS run in quite a few cycles if you're looking for a hit. Verbatim eastern Maine gets a good impact, as I'm sure the extra tropical transition would expand the leaf and winds on the western side

gfs_z500a_atl_fh126-204.thumb.gif.53ac52d7b096545f8cb2cefb46286ba1.gif

Yup. Just look at the GFS trend the last two days. Speaking broadly, if the deterministic Euro is a western outlier and GFS eastern outlier, this is a pretty substantial Atlantic Canada threat at range.

However, if you’re looking at the synoptics, that ridge is continuing to trend stronger across guidance in the longer range and the trough while still all over the place is looking less like a full blown kicker.

I don’t really care about the imby stuff yet, but I think it’s also becoming clearer that while a turn 70W or later would obviously increase the NE threat, it’s not necessary for an impact, if the current ridge/trough trend continues. It might not, and we should be wary of the last minute east ticks, but for now this is what we got. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup. Just look at the GFS trend the last two days. Speaking broadly, if the deterministic Euro is a western outlier and GFS eastern outlier, this is a pretty substantial Atlantic Canada threat at range.

However, if you’re looking at the synoptics, that ridge is continuing to trend stronger across guidance in the longer range and the trough while still all over the place is looking less like a full blown kicker.

I don’t really care about the imby stuff yet, but I think it’s also becoming clearer that while a turn 70W or later would obviously increase the NE threat, it’s not necessary for an impact, if the current ridge/trough trend continues. It might not, and we should be wary of the last minute east ticks, but for now this is what we got. 

The biggest takeaway from that GFS run for me wasn't the impact location, per say. But rather we didn't see that bend/recurve OTS once past Hatteras latitude. Instead, it trucks on due north into eastern New England, similar to the Euro which moved straight north. So as you alluded to, that ridge and trough duo as currently modeled squeezes this thing due north. If you really want a strong New England impact, you'd want this trough to capture Lee, even if it's slightly, to pull it *just* a bit on a NW heading. But you take what you can get. I think y'all all know what's at stake here, and what's the likely outcome. I don't even live on the east coast anymore, but this is still an intriguing situation to follow and I'll be watching along

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