ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: May be a wash with Margot to the east. I think @CoastalWx mentioned that the models account for that though. A turn before 70W has been one of the most consistent forecasts across guidance. They'd all need to be underdoing the ridge for a much later turn, which is possible but unlikely IMO. models account for it but Lee is stronger now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Oh boy .he coming 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Wow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Let’s say lee drops to sub 900. Completely unprecedented in that part of the atlantic. It could hypothetically affect larger scale systems by the shear nature of its strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like 140+ NW eyewall? Looked closer to 180mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looked closer to 180mph The SFMR might be questionable though. We see this in these higher end storms at times and the NHC hedges lower. I think this is around 140kt right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 930mb on that 2nd pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh boy .he coming I'm already warning everyone at work 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: I'm already warning everyone at work I want cops and prisoners alike in handcuffs . Keep everyone safe 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1699905304442581210?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I want cops and prisoners alike in handcuffs . Keep everyone safe Naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1699905304442581210?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 4:00am comes early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 leigh?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Aside from ogling the intensity, I still don't see the appeal with this one. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh boy .he coming U got a live one @ electric blue? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 928 mb 140 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Formidable, Should maintain that intensity with some fluctuations with ERC's, Now lets see what lat it makes the NW turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm already warning everyone at work What are you warning them about Ant? Lol. I mean there’s more than an 85% chance it never even gets all that close to the east coast? 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What are you warning them about Ant? Lol. I mean there’s more than an 85% chance it never even gets all that close to the east coast? I'm warning them about this upcoming winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm warning them about this upcoming winter. Another ratter en route 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1699905304442581210?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Irresponsible in IMHO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Every liquor store in Nantucket. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, FXWX said: Irresponsible in IMHO Joe is the biggest weenie amongst them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 30 minutes ago, FXWX said: Irresponsible in IMHO Ya…it’s all hype there. If it gets passed 70 west, then he may be on to something…until then it’s just talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 She gone GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Gfs was closer at 0z than earlier in the day , just need it to 72-W before the turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Say what you will, that was obviously the best looking GFS run in quite a few cycles if you're looking for a hit. Verbatim eastern Maine gets a good impact, as the extratropical transition would expand the leaf and winds on the western side 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: She gone GFS Is west of 18z now landfalling in western Nova Scotia Maine border just east of the 12z Euro but the fact that the models seem to be adjusting west should be cause for concern in terms of sensible weather. on the Euro path hurricane wind gust would probably hit eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire with Maine getting the lions share of wind damage and surge The current GFS would give maybe no more than a typical nor’easter conditions in eastern Massachusetts and New Hampshire with hurricane winds in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Newman said: Say what you will, that was obviously the best looking GFS run in quite a few cycles if you're looking for a hit. Verbatim eastern Maine gets a good impact, as I'm sure the extra tropical transition would expand the leaf and winds on the western side Yup. Just look at the GFS trend the last two days. Speaking broadly, if the deterministic Euro is a western outlier and GFS eastern outlier, this is a pretty substantial Atlantic Canada threat at range. However, if you’re looking at the synoptics, that ridge is continuing to trend stronger across guidance in the longer range and the trough while still all over the place is looking less like a full blown kicker. I don’t really care about the imby stuff yet, but I think it’s also becoming clearer that while a turn 70W or later would obviously increase the NE threat, it’s not necessary for an impact, if the current ridge/trough trend continues. It might not, and we should be wary of the last minute east ticks, but for now this is what we got. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yup. Just look at the GFS trend the last two days. Speaking broadly, if the deterministic Euro is a western outlier and GFS eastern outlier, this is a pretty substantial Atlantic Canada threat at range. However, if you’re looking at the synoptics, that ridge is continuing to trend stronger across guidance in the longer range and the trough while still all over the place is looking less like a full blown kicker. I don’t really care about the imby stuff yet, but I think it’s also becoming clearer that while a turn 70W or later would obviously increase the NE threat, it’s not necessary for an impact, if the current ridge/trough trend continues. It might not, and we should be wary of the last minute east ticks, but for now this is what we got. The biggest takeaway from that GFS run for me wasn't the impact location, per say. But rather we didn't see that bend/recurve OTS once past Hatteras latitude. Instead, it trucks on due north into eastern New England, similar to the Euro which moved straight north. So as you alluded to, that ridge and trough duo as currently modeled squeezes this thing due north. If you really want a strong New England impact, you'd want this trough to capture Lee, even if it's slightly, to pull it *just* a bit on a NW heading. But you take what you can get. I think y'all all know what's at stake here, and what's the likely outcome. I don't even live on the east coast anymore, but this is still an intriguing situation to follow and I'll be watching along 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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