Torch Tiger Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Way east still. Oh yeah that could be bad for outcomes, if the lead s/w doesn't kick out quickly, or is more amped and more influence? I think it's 'gon miss here, just pointing out some things about the 18z gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 There were such huge changes...overall in NAMR. Tough to really make anything out of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 It’s still east of NE verbatim, but was west overall in LF location—a direct hit on Nova Scotia as opposed to a track near/over Newfoundland at 12z and 06z. Really hard to figure out specifics of this steering pattern long range but the trend seems to be west the last ~36 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Recon is about to find something insane. You rarely ever see this in the basin. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Real-time sh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Darn. I was hoping the 12z gfs was on to something with the ots run. Looks like it’s trending back. Concerning but not worried…yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Darn. I was hoping the 12z gfs was on to something with the ots run. Looks like it’s trending back. Concerning but not worried…yet. Stay hazey! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, Hazey said: Darn. I was hoping the 12z gfs was on to something with the ots run. Looks like it’s trending back. Concerning but not worried…yet. Plenty of time for the last second kick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Whoa, Just went thru the eyewall from the WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 This is a five. Easily. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 This is pretty jaw dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is a five. Easily. 160mph+, 928mb on that pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 160mph+, 928mb on that pass Barely sampled the NE quad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Barely sampled the NE quad too. Yeah, The went thru more easterly, Will have to see what they have on the next one if they go thru the NE quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Haven't seen any updates in a while. Been like 20 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Haven't seen any updates in a while. Been like 20 min Yeah, I'm sure that's a very bumpy ride thru there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I'm sure that's a very bumpy ride thru there. Yeah can't imagine it being fun. Glad they're alright. Was actually a little concerned for a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Yeah can't imagine it being fun Looks like they missed some data, Looks like they got jostled a bit when they punched the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Looks like they missed some data, Looks like they got jostled a bit when they punched the eyewall. We have data! This is wild...holy shit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We have data! This is wild...holy shit Wow, It looks like they hit 145kts, That's pretty sick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 You have to figure this has to start undergoing an ERC soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: You have to figure this has to start undergoing an ERC soon... Looks like it still has time per recon obs on that first pass. The first VDM is wild. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 0:04ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: LeeStorm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 23:35:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.94N 51.70WB. Center Fix Location: 590 statute miles (950 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,543m (8,343ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 34kts (From the SW at 39mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 139kts (160.0mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (246°) of center fix at 23:33:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 310° at 132kts (From the NW at 151.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (246°) of center fix at 23:33:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 144kts (165.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE (70°) of center fix at 23:37:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 174° at 148kts (From the S at 170.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) of center fix at 23:38:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 148kts (~ 170.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center at 23:38:00Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 165 mphPeak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 170 mphSFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 166 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 That’s some very impressive strengthening in a short timeframe! Waiting for someone to drop or invent the term tropical bombogenesis on the internet soon! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 We goin to 175-180 over nite ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 This is going Cat 6 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 I really don’t understand how it’s possible to fly a plane in those conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Shrinking symmetric eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said: I really don’t understand how it’s possible to fly a plane in those conditions. They barely do ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 This is going Cat 6Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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