FXWX Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think this can adjust west further, but not that far. This’d be a lock if that trough were going negative, but it looks like those pulling for a hit will have to rely on positioning and timing. If it there were to be more impressive trough tugging on it, then yes... big hit. Over the many years I've dealt with northward moving hurricanes, I almost always bet a bit of a westward model track bias unless there is trough really holding it on a due north track or one going negative to assist in pulling it a bit northwest. Without that, the ridge has to be powerful and actually increasingly in strength to hold it on a due north track. Otherwise the tendency is for a fade east of the modeled track as it gets north of the Hatteras latitude. Just from personal experience... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, FXWX said: If it there were to be more impressive trough tugging on it, then yes... big hit. Over the many years I've dealt with northward moving hurricanes, I almost always bet a bit of a westward model track bias unless there is trough really holding it on a due north track or one going negative to assist in pulling it a bit northwest. Without that, the ridge has to be powerful and actually increasingly in strength to hold it on a due north track. Otherwise the tendency is for a fade east of the modeled track as it gets north of the Hatteras latitude. Just from personal experience... I hope you're right. As someone sitting in the "visitor's section" of the stadium, I am growing worried. Just too much time left on the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, FXWX said: Agree... sweeping by just to the east as modeled by the euro op would be quite a bit less interesting and impactful than many might think... 100 to 150 miles further west is a whole different story. You’d have a massive and expanding wind field . It’d be wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 this thread should be renamed, "anatomy of a tease job" 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: this thread should be renamed, "anatomy of a tease job" I'd rather see it modeled into BDR right now because of the ticks east that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 EPS mean doesn’t even get it to 70W…there is still a lot of work needed on this one to make it compelling outside the Cape/Islands. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: this thread should be renamed, "anatomy of a tease job" Now that is a Tease Job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’d have a massive and expanding wind field . It’d be wild usually at our lattitude it's rain west/winds east....unless there's energy coming in....the 3 canes that gave me wind were Irene, Sandy and Isaisis-all passed to my west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd rather see it modeled into BDR right now because of the ticks east that can happen. Send it to Buffalo for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’d have a massive and expanding wind field . It’d be wild Probably not... my experience is that a track like the euro op does not live up to the modeled billing. Usually the west side wind field doesn't live up the billing. Not trying to be a kill joy, but my experience says the western wind field with that forecast track will disappoint west of the immediate eastern Mass / Cape area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 I think the key point is we have another nice west shift and more members making LF. You aren’t going to see massive adjustments. You’ll continue seeing nice solid west moves on the mean and likely more hits that are west in the coming days 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 It's coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 30 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I hope you're right. As someone sitting in the "visitor's section" of the stadium, I am growing worried. Just too much time left on the clock. I hear ya... nothing is every 100% certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd rather see it modeled into BDR right now because of the ticks east that can happen. Can and often do happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Ugh we are still 9 days out... definitely a trend in the right direction if you want a storm. The EPS mean has been slowly marching west. But still... Day 9 model run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 There’s some fun EPS ENE landfalls in there, but I think I’ll take #25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, dendrite said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Meh. Glorified nor’easter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just when I thought I was out. They pull me back in! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Skipped straight to cat 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Skipped straight to cat 4 Thats impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Thats impressive 50mph gain in 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: Just when I thought I was out. They pull me back in! Aren't you glad I mentioned the special guest appearance of the Tolland Looters???.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 in case anyone's skipped the 'fine print' Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands. There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential impacts a week or more out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 59 minutes ago, dendrite said: There’s some fun EPS ENE landfalls in there, but I think I’ll take #25 Too far west ... - if it's not ideal, total fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 gfs trended quite a bit PAC NW/AK the past several runs, much more consolidated low over AK versus a multi-vortex thing. Also the low over the lakes (actually WI) is closed off 18z which hadn't occurred in any previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: gfs trended quite a bit PAC NW/AK the past several runs, much more consolidated low over AK versus a multi-vortex thing. Also the low over the lakes (actually WI) is closed off 18z which hadn't occurred in any previous runs. Way east still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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